Transcript
us getting a fair amount of positive momentum as well.
Also want to talk about cerebral osse context
of the OKX ice exchange.
They have already objected to their inclusion
in the OKX ice trading interestingly.
Then we had in normal business,
we've had a tie up yesterday that came out
in the trucking and logistics base,
C.H. Robinson and RX-O.
C.H. Robinson acquiring RX-O,
the biggest gainer of the day in the market
or one of the biggest gainers was RX-O,
up 22% based on the 5.8 billion dollars
cash and stock buyout by C.H. Robinson,
C.H. Robinson on the flip saw head of the hat
was one of the biggest losers yesterday.
The trucking logistics business,
as we've discussed,
and we'll discuss a bit more today,
is under a lot of pressure
from a bunch of different vectors,
from price of gasoline, diesel,
in particular, obviously.
Also we have, sorry, on the diesel point,
we've got a release or more permission on red diesel.
I don't think Honest is going to be here today,
but we've spoken about red diesel,
Trump, additional red diesel
to make its way onto commercial roadways.
But on the trucking business,
so you've got that,
you've got migration issues
with respect to trucking,
you've got the consumer under some pressure,
with respect to trucking insurance as well.
So all in all,
it is under a fair amount of pressure.
All right, let me pause there.
Let me get to a lot of yours hand,
and then we'll circle back to a number of things
that I've mentioned,
and then a bunch of others as well.
And then before I do that,
after a lot of you,
we'll go to Carlo
to talk a little bit more about the crypto universe.
Go ahead, a lot of you.
Good morning.
I'm going to be pretty brief.
We are in a massive meltup here.
To me,
if I were looking at where we are,
to me, this looks like 1998 or 99.
I mean,
ironically, Bad News,
that sort of hit the economy,
and then that first rate cut,
and that first rate cut is always the biggest one.
It always has the biggest impact on those interest rate sensitive stocks.
And that's what we saw.
And we saw a total breakdown of the rotational balancing
that was taking place the prior six months before this happens.
I mean, we literally saw tremendous strength in the banks last year
into this year.
We even started to see some interest rate sensitive names
that we've been trying to catch a bit,
to small caps,
hit an all-time high.
But again,
we fell into the point where the Bad News hit,
and it's,
and quality is always going to be
the safest place for money when you have things go wrong.
Everything is going wrong.
I mean, the 10-year, the 30-year,
at their highest ever,
ever.
And it's great to focus on that
because that is a weight.
And that's what I was talking about.
And I was talking about the last spreads,
you know, break here.
We're seeing the high yield.
Finally, I know David Nakowski,
and I had been looking at that for about three years.
Did you lose the Lodio or is that just me cutting out?
Do you hear me?
I hear, I hear, I hear, I'm fine.
Okay.
So, sorry.
The bottom line is,
everything is going wrong.
And it's supposedly right.
Yet this stock market powers away.
Because it does exactly what it always does.
It looks for higher ground.
And higher ground is always that max seven.
I call it my mag 11 now.
If you add space X, you know,
crout, strike,
palantir.
And Netflix is an iffy, iffy,
because Netflix has been very, very weak.
So I haven't really committed to that one.
But the bottom line is,
it's the same names.
And it's these hyperscalers that have been doing all the spending
into the surprise of a lot of people in this room.
When I looked up the fact that that half of these have,
are still basically self funding fully without issuing debt,
tells you that there's still gasoline in the tank.
And this is, again, in an arms race,
the only problem I see with the market is that $2 trillion
whole.
If that IPO hits, that money's going to come from somewhere.
This is a melt-up similar to the one that we saw last,
you know, when, when, when space X IPO'd.
Speaking of space X and Tesla,
they've bottomed it seems.
And they're now trading in tandem,
as if a merger had already happened, it seems.
If I were Elon Musk, wow,
we're matching getting in front of that,
an catastrophic IPO and doing something crazy like a merger.
I don't know if that's even allowed,
given the fact that it's an IPO like that.
But the bottom line is, the animal spirits are alive.
And the equity side is leading the charge
and creating a lot of wealth,
which is going to offset some of the credit problems that we have.
And the Fed can no longer raise rates,
because you're looking at seeing what's happening to,
to the credit spreads as they're breaking.
So, but in the meantime, it's Gungho and Carlo.
I know you're going to go next.
Crypto has been a great leading indicator from the perspective
of how the VIX is.
I don't even look at amplitude anymore,
or there isn't any.
But the fact is that when it turns green,
the market and the NASIC still follows us.
So in that respect,
the crypto is really still a leading indicator.
So, before Carlo goes,
thank you for that, Aladio,
because it did let me be the yang here on this,
which is rates in my eyes are gravity.
Okay, there are definitely,
there's a great article today out.
I said that now.
It's a way.
Regarding CNBS, right,
that 11 plus percent of CNBS
are now sitting in the hands of special servicing
for those folks that are not real estate buffs,
and I am not, right,
in my mind,
a special servicer taking over four purposes
of real estate is essentially akin to company hiring,
a restructuring advisor.
Doesn't necessarily mean you're going to head into bankruptcy,
but also doesn't mean that things are going to get worked out very easily.
There is, there is difficulty,
and it's becoming harder to close deals on the real estate side
because rates have not gone up.
Yes, there isn't the same type of,
of urgency when it comes to corporations,
because corporate debt matures on a more staggered schedule.
You don't have the same level of acquisition activity,
and certainly not the same level of debt issuance
as you do have in the real estate market,
although we just had paramount skydance go ahead and float
tens of billions dollars debt, 50 billion.
This is going to pressure the economy.
And so I'll stop with this,
which is David Koski talks about how it is not a stock market,
but a market of stocks.
I think we're getting increasingly into a market of stocks
to a very small subset of stocks,
whether they be by market cap,
whether they be by industry,
or by a certain type of leadership.
What have you?
The question is, is for how long can those folks hold,
how long can their companies hold up the indices?
And obviously, we have all the issues surrounding the entire AI build out
in terms of the circular financing.
I don't think that there is problems with that,
but that being said,
we do still have a ton of private credit
that underpins a bunch of that financing
that is also under pressure.
I'm just adding to the narrative.
I am not saying that.
Too much doom and gloom, my friends.
Too much doom and gloom.
Sorry, man, I try to live in reality.
I am generally a long holder,
but I try to live in reality.
All right, Carla, go ahead. Good morning.
So I think you are right.
It is becoming a stock market of stocks,
but I think it's also important to note that it is becoming a stock market
that is rapidly adopting crypto.
I have been observing this trend for some time now,
which has been the thesis for kind of my entire rebranding of my media arm
of what I do,
which is this notion that money markets and culture are all going on chain,
and we are rapidly witnessing
with all the announcements that are coming out.
A lot of confirmation that what used to be a scenario
in our space,
speaking specifically of crypto,
where crypto wanted to be more like Wall Street,
it is becoming increasingly clear to me that Wall Street
wants to behave more like crypto.
And the fact that we had this announcement of the OKX,
ICE, New York Stock Exchange,
collaborative effort to bring 60 stocks,
not tokenized representations,
not the Robin Hood stuff we've been talking about,
but actual stocks tokenized and tradable on the New York Stock Exchange
through this collaborative effort known as OKX, ICE,
a new venture that plans to operate a regulated venue
for tokenized US stocks in compliance with recent SEC guidance on this
is a tremendous indicator
that the market is moving on chain.
Couple that data with what I pinned in the nest today
as today's on chain record,
whose letter on the sub-stack,
which is confirmation of something that we have been discussing on the show,
and folks, if you're not sure you did a show,
you are not catching the real-time movement
of markets and what is really happening here under the hood.
Because I have said, and David, we discussed this,
that the anti-credo army,
let by Lizard Warren,
may have scored a win in killing the clarity act by not bringing sufficient votes
to the Senate to advance it,
but they actually, in the end,
I circulated, had lost the war.
And yesterday's announcement at Fordham
by the chair of the CFTC, Mr. Selig,
confirms that because the CFTC and the SEC
are not waiting for Congress to get their act together
and pass meaningful legislation.
They are advancing crypto innovation through the regulatory arm.
And I have said this,
that if they succeed in doing this,
and what the CFTC essentially announced yesterday is they want to be the main
federal regulator for crypto trading platforms.
And they're doing this in a mutual understanding agreement with the SEC
to remove the confusion of a 50-state model
and to create a unified federal rule book for how these assets are regulated
and how they move on chain.
And it is very clear now that the tone has been established
by both of these regulatory agencies
that they are not going to drop the mantle
on advancing crypto innovation in the United States
and that they're going to push forward.
And the exact thing that Elizabeth Warren was fighting tooth and nail
to avoid, which is the integration of blockchain
into our financial systems is happening.
And it is becoming so big, so fast,
that my thesis that it will be too big to fail
and it will be too big to unwind
if the Democrats come into power again
is playing out.
Add to that, and Lumia, I want to touch on something you asked me in the DMs,
Lumia had asked me to do a little bit of a look at what happened with Intel.
Intel's stock had some volatility and overnight dropped to 115.
And this was caught overnight in the 24-7
perpetual market that crypto enables through hype and hyper-liquid.
And add on one last layer before I pass the mic,
it's that hyper-liquid is now available on the Bloomberg terminal.
So now you are seeing the total integration of 24-7 markets
on chain representations of tokenized stocks
and hyper-liquid, which is the leader in perpetual trading of these markets,
now being offered on the traditional finance Bloomberg terminal.
This story is coming full circle in a way that I don't think anyone could have fathomed
under the last administration.
And I don't think anything is going to stop the momentum of this,
and it's clear in the performance of the leading major tokens like Bitcoin and Ethereum and Solana
and hyper-liquid that can send you to see positive momentum as this thing builds.
Back to you, David.
Supercarlo will continue to say at every single day the tokenization of every asset
that can move will happen.
I think the most liquid or the ones that move the most are obviously the hardest
and the ones at the same time that will benefit the most.
And so once we've taken care of