#FinanceDaily 🇯🇵💪,🛢️$120?, 🇨🇦 tariffs, Rokos 🇬🇧 🛫, Aug jobs; CPI/PPI, Fed

David D. Tawil Subscribe Podcast 1h 32m 0 downloads Added 2026-09-12 #Trending

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美国市场因劳工节休市但全球债市与汇市剧烈波动,主持人快速梳理了英国预算危机、德国极右翼崛起、日元升值及富豪外流等宏观风险。 - 英国借贷成本升至1998年以来最高,首相Andy Burnham面临10月预算、移民政策及党内分裂等多重压力。 - 德国极右翼政党AfD在萨克森州民调达44%,可能成为二战后首个赢得州政府的极右翼政党,对金融市场的潜在影响值得关注。 - 对冲基金亿万富翁Chris Rokos因英国高税率而迁往希腊,反映高收入人群因税务压力外流的趋势。 - 日元升至七个月新高,市场猜测日本可能大量抛售美债以获取流动性;中国持有的美债也降至四分之一世纪以来最低。 - 尽管美债遭遇中日两国减持,美国国债市场并未崩溃,主持人认为这本身是一个积极信号。 - 本周将公布PPI(周四)和CPI(周五),下周美联储会议,市场将在本周末形成更明确的方向判断。 - 主持人还附带分享了一个iPhone通话降噪技巧:在控制中心将麦克风模式切换为"宽频谱"可显著提升通话质量。 关注本周通胀数据与下周美联储决议,这两大事件将决定近期全球市场的方向。

Transcript

iPhone, you swipe from the top and from the right hand on the top while you're in the app or on the call. And at the very top, there is something that says controls and you can change it to wide spectrum. When you change it to wide spectrum, apparently, it comes through a lot better. So sharing all this knowledge with you, forgive me for being such a, I don't know, non-tech, heavy person, appreciate your patients with me. My children probably wouldn't be as patient if I spoke to them about it. But in any event, I hope everybody had a great holiday weekend for those that celebrated end of summer. Although there's really no formal end of summer and joy, continue to enjoy the good weather if it's there for you. But let's get to a bunch of news. So the United States markets were closed yesterday, but everywhere else in the world was pretty rocking and rolling. And even with the US closed, there is a bunch of US-related news that came out over the weekend plus. And this is really where it starts to get interesting. Later this week we have inflation reads, PPI on Thursday, CPI on Friday. Next week we've got the Fed. And I think things will come into much greater focus towards the end of the week and people will start to make real serious calls. After that, the big news of the weekend, lots of upward price movement and the price of crude oil on us, I'm sure everybody is waiting with baited breath to find out everything that's going on across the globe. So whenever you want to start, you let us know even if it's a bit earlier than usual, that's fine too. I want to announce that Carlo is starting his own show. It will be a half hour into this show if you leave to go to listen to his show. I'm okay with that. I take no offense, folks. Definitely, it is going to be Crypto-centric, Stablecoin-centric. And I'm sure it will be a worthwhile listen. Let's get to the UK where I think things begin. Andy Burnham, now Prime Minister, he's got a budget that needs to come out in October. The borrowing costs for the UK haven't been higher than since 1998. He's got socio-political policy problems as well with respect to migration. He's got a pretty split government in terms of government. And I'll just throw this in. Germany's far right, faction FD1, a record, 44% in Saxony. Saxony is right leaning to begin with. It is in the east of Germany, but nevertheless, it is the Germany's first far right party that could possibly win state government since World War II. And we're not here for the politics of it, but this is important for the finance of it. The yen is now rallying to a seven month high, so we came down all the way down, and now we are rallying back pretty hard. Today at 8.30, sorry, I should have said this earlier, today at 8.30 in about 20 minutes, we will get the August jobs report, which will be important. In addition on Andy Burnham's plate is the fact that one of the highest paying tax citizens of the UK is leaving the UK. Chris Rokos, who started his career at Brevon Howard as an asset manager, and then took a couple of years off and launched Rokos. His typical long short hedge fund, tens of billions of dollars on the management, was the largest start of the year, maybe five or six years ago, I think. In any event, he has decided to leave the country for Greece because of the tax seemingly because of the tax structure against higher earners in the UK. We've talked about it here in the US regarding California, regarding New York, the camp, into Florida, whatever. It just is, right? I mean, I don't need to get into whether New York's going to be left with just homeless people and penniless, but I know people taking me for that message. I am not passing that message on, but the message is Chris Rokos is leaving the UK, and he's going to Greece because of favorable tax treatment over there. Along with the yen rallying, folks are speculating that Japan has probably dumped a bunch of US treasuries in the same vein. China's US treasury holdings are at their lowest level in a quarter century, considering the fact that the US treasury market has encradered with all this is pretty impressive. Japan needs liquidity, and it might have been selling US treasuries late, and China's holdings are coming down in the fact that it hasn't imploded the treasury market here in the United States. I think that's pretty good as far as things go. I'm going to take a breath for a second here, and I'm going to go to Lumie's hand on anything that I've discussed thus far, or anything else you want to bring up this morning. Go ahead. Good morning to you. Good morning, and a happy weekend to everyone. The taxes for Greece, this is really important because they recently changed and modernized their tax system for certain things where they're not allowing for basically double taxation to occur. Greece is very unproductive economy. They are one of the picks, as they would say, in Europe. It's just one of those things where they've managed to understand the situation very well. If they carry on with this approach, I know a few friends who have already moved from various, even from Canada to Greece, which is ironic because they've seen how this is shaping up to be quite beneficial for people with a high net loss, and who are really fed up with some policy. I really think it's really smart. It's going to be interesting. It's going to redefine Europe. I think the UK is really infrastructure lacking, and I've been trying to warn people about this for a while because as soon as the tax receipts start to reduce there, they've only got two options. The first option is to either raise taxes and the people are still there, which is going to really not do a great job. The second option is to maybe reform and do things better, which they're not going to do. They've done the top of that. I already think that the UK is in real shalack. Yeah. I am a New Jersey state resident, our highest tax payer, David Tepper of Appalusa asset management left a few years ago. It was serious. Listen, some folks at the very, very upper end are incredibly mobile, especially if they're later on in years or on kids running around their house anymore. It's pretty easy. They've probably spent a lot of time out of the state anyway for business and for pleasure at second and third, fourth, fifth homes. Leaving the state and going through a better tax jurisdiction and trust me, rich people don't become rich because they go ahead and just pay extra taxes when they don't have to. They watch every penny. They're going to be smart about it. And if that's what puts them over the top, so be it. Eric, good morning. Good morning. Good morning. So more on these tax phenomenon. It's been there for a while. It's been increasing recently as a lot of government, especially in Western world. Need more taxes and there's more mobility for the people to move around. But it's not a new phenomenon. What is happening, I have to mention, for example, the case of Portugal, which is the place in Europe, which is attracting the most billionaires right now. I think along with Switzerland, but Portugal, especially during the last few years, what happened is that they decided to put tax free for 10 years, for retirees and for certain people, certain group. A lot of people took advantage of that. France and Germany got angry at it. They told Portugal you can't do that. We cannot have all our people leave to take advantage of the tax loophole that you're giving. So Portugal backtracks on that, but they still have some favorable deals to some extent. For people coming into the country, from these journalists to other specific type of people who will want to move there. So you have places like that, Singapore as well, attracts a lot of people who are very wealthy because of very low tax rate and the high quality of life Dubai, I mean before the war, now maybe a bit different. And in order to change that, to balance that, the decision has to be like the G20 together and enforcing all the other countries, all agree to not that. Minimum tax rate for the wealthy. Otherwise, it's free for all. And the migration automatically happens. And traditionally, the only country who could have pushed that. Like we saw a push by a giant alien to try and get the G7 and G20 to agree to minimum. That's right for the business world, not for the individuals. But at this time in age, it would have been the US and now the US cannot agree economically with any country, the trade warring everywhere. So it would be very difficult to stop the exodus of people who have wealth to another jurisdiction who decides to put these tax breaks to attract them into the country. And then they can spend into the country sometime, invest into the country according to whatever yield they give them. Where this becomes a problem is how do you sustain the expenses that are happening in the Western world, and they've been accumulating over time with massive debts if you do not have the tax revenue. And if they all go to Mauritius Island, to Portugal and to Singapore and to, I don't know, British Virgin Islands, a couple of other physical parts as Brunei and whatnot. I'm listing quite a few here on the show that you can look them up. They each have different very good tax incentives for very different reasons. And what happens to the countries which need that tax revenue? They will double down on how they tax the rest of the citizen. They kind of have no choice. And that's going to be a very, very difficult thing on the population, the general population at large. The other way would be to tax corporations one, but then corporations will leave. So they're really in a bind. And without a proper leadership and agreement between the large countries to have a minimum tax structure, there'll be a lot of capital flight like that. If the gap is too big, and I do not see any solution, the other solution for these governments will be to get a big doge and balance the budget, but as we'll discuss many times on this show, none of them has the incentive, political incentive to do that. If the trillionaire Elon Musk couldn't do it, and who will be able to force the government to do that is, they need a big crisis to be able to actually, maybe someday, enforce that. So until then that sadly, that migration will continue to happen. But it is because they cannot agree with each other, it will have a minimum tax rate. And because the effect I think which is really bad, is it going to tax more the rest of the cities and because how else are we going to get the money? Or print more debt? And this is where we're heading. And this is the trade of the next few years as we've been talking on the show, massive money printing, more and more and more unsustainable path, which is very dangerous, which is why we have these debts. Just like you said at the beginning of the show, David, eating you highs back to you. Thanks. Look. So all the politics is very interesting. UK, Germany, France, and we'll continue to watch. I think an example of the complacency of Europe generally is what's happened to the automotive industry. We've talked about it. We've talked about Volkswagen. We've spoken about Jaguar Land Rover, Jaguar Land Rover, cutting 4,000 jobs over the next few years. They've also been through a tough time in terms of supply chain, in terms of also system hacks. I don't know if you recall their entire network of dealerships were down across the world last year because of a hack. They weren't going to pay the ransom. Finally, they were able to get out of it. We don't know all the details on it. I'm sure they don't want it to be public. Volkswagen, we've recorded their difficulties, ratcheting up the amount of folks they're firing rumor out today that they're going to sell off their motorcycle business. I know none of you have ever seen a Volkswagen motorcycle. They own Ducati. So they are looking potentially to sell Ducati. I'm sure for somebody it's going to be a trophy asset of some sort, but they continue to have to break themselves apart and generate some liquidity. And then Stellantis asking for help from BYD to go ahead and salvage Mazarradi. That also was out over the weekend. I just think the complacency across the board here with respect to European automakers. By the way, the US is in no great shape either. We put all our car makers through bankruptcy. So that's the way we did the car wash on them. But it seems like the Chinese have essentially eaten everybody's lunch when it comes to automobiles. And so I just think it's an interesting.

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