AI Summary
两位投资者讨论了AI数据中心和GPU需求的前景,认为AI基础设施可能被高估,同时对加密货币保持看多。
- 说话者持有Navi(可能指NVIDIA)的期权仓位,规模达七位数,但表示长期不看好数据中心,期待股价回升至90美元以上出货。
- 他曾通过卖出短期15 Delta看跌期权,每周赚取两三千美元权利金,认为这种策略在持续操作下可行。
- 目前保留部分低成本看涨期权,每份合约仍能获得约200美元权利金,合计约8000美元收益。
- 他认为大盘下行空间有限,若再有下跌可能出现在周一,但AI板块跌幅可能更大;相比之下他非常看好加密货币。
- 关于AI建设周期,他指出矛盾信号:GPU需求史上最紧张(他每周花费上千美元),但很多用途并无实际价值,可能被高估。
- 他认为7-10家大型软件公司(Google、OpenAI、Microsoft、xAI等)提供高度同质化的服务,用户目前多用两三家,最终会整合为一家,实际收入难以估量。
- 大量GPU需求来自Hugging Face、嵌入生成、聚类、长文本摘要等"边角"用途,他质疑这些支出是否必要。
- 他自己仅支付20美元的ChatGPT订阅且从未用尽额度,因工作涉及AI,大部分算力成本并非自付。
结论:AI基础设施的真实需求可能被非必要用途夸大,投资者应警惕数据中心类资产的长期估值风险,同时可关注加密货币的配置机会。
Transcript
to think about what and and for these things these are going to be both trades and long
time. You save off a little bit then you hold the rest for long term. Did you check?
I'm thinking maybe Google I don't know I'm still looking but for my Navi is back I'm not
bullish on these data centers long term. So this thing needs to get back up to 90s for
our Navi is I win and CBRS and all the time I have like seven figures and fucking Navi
is. I'm thinking like $3,000 in premium for January so like I'm a seven call. It was
and oh puts and then calls so like I'm probably actually up pretty nicely but like so it's
just sucks because I was about to make you know you're about to make this like 90%
return and then it's like seven figures. I might be thinking about it differently but I
was talking sorry six six six six six six six six six I'm not going to lie I was very
cautious going into these a I placed that I knew they were risky so I did small bets. So
like now I'm like if I lose it I lose it doesn't really matter I mean it matters but it's
I'm not selling now so it is what it is but I feel you on that man. I was selling like
15 Delta's like two weeks out for months and the premiums were crazy I mean you do like
three or four puts it was like two or three grand a week I mean it was just crazy.
Yeah I mean as long as you do a lot of it and you can still continue to do that you know
but I wouldn't like it's so hard to see. Luckily I get some calls at the cost basis and
still get about 200 per per bundle per contract. Yeah so like that's you know giving me like
8000 that's pretty nice but then it's like I don't know how much more downward pressure is there
so you're like well obviously on the overall market bro I think month if we're I think if we see
any more blood it's gonna be on Monday I don't think the overall market has too much more
downside but AI has been you know obviously getting hit a lot harder so AI is the one thing that
could really continue to go down if you know of anything but still know it's I still think that
generally speaking right the bottom of like the broad market pullback and crypto I think right
the bottom we could see another dip down on Monday but I'm super bullish on crypto man.
It's it's kind of a confusing story because some of the some of the data points suggest that
this AI build out AI stories like in the middle or early but then some of it a lot of it suggests
that we're sort of late so like I don't really know how to judge so for example I use a lot of GPUs
like a lot right like thousand dollars a week and it has been harder than ever in the history of
GP I've used them for since 2024 I guess to get GPUs so there is more demand than there's ever been
for this like computer yeah and it's like a lot more however when I look at what we're using it for
I feel like we don't need any of it there's no point to running it like it'd be better off we didn't
do it so like how much of this stuff is like should we not even be running you know what I'm saying
like I feel like there's a lot of use of it that shouldn't not ever be happening so then when you
adjust for them like I feel like I don't really have a computer I feel like there's a
over me and it's a lot of overlap where like you have seven to ten large software companies and
and your meds your Google's and oh GPT open AI now it's like Microsoft everyone's offering
the same X with GROC they're offering the same service with these with these platforms and right
now everybody's using like multiple like two or three or more but eventually we're going to consolidate
down to one so I think like you said it's kind of tricky where it's like yeah it's going to be
used but it's hard to measure how much like actual revenue it's going to it's going to generate
well even for GPUs though a lot of that's used isn't even coming from all of them it's coming from
people needing GPUs to use hugging face and generate embeddings and do clustering like side stuff
and summarize large corpses of texts and like shit like that but I'm like I don't know if we need
any of this like I just feel like people are spending a lot of money for shit that they don't
need to do and so when I'm really thinking about I'm like do we really have it going to be shorted
I mean kind of but like if you take all the stuff that shouldn't be from be happening that should
be thrown in the fucking trash I think we probably haven't how do you end up paying because I feel like
I get a lot of this stuff for free but I don't use that much like how do you end up paying a lot for
I mean I have a credit card that people that people pay for and you do like coding and stuff
uh yeah I mean I work kind of in AI so I mean I don't pay the bills
whatever but I got a ppp subscription for 20 bucks and I've never ran out on it so I'm like oh yeah
I got all that stuff for I got all that stuff for free pretty much are you in any uh did you ever get
per we talked about per before I bought some per I loved you to that because they pumped it
they pumped it last night the more I looked the more I looked into it like the more bullish I got
and I fucking looked at that fact that it's been three or four guys in the company that
have been working there for years and it's still three or four guys and I'm like that's crazy
it's an insane amount of a pps per head right at the actual hyperliquid company yeah at the
hyperliquid there's only a easy fucking number number of earnings per head it's like the highest ever
it's got to be like the highest ever I do think they probably should hire a little more because
there's got to be other other things to do but if they can keep it like in the 10s or 20s or 30s
I mean that's crazy but would it be in a layer one like other people actually build on it and expand it
without them even having to like hire them so they you know I think there might be a little bit of
I mean yeah I know but like do they have legal and stuff like I think I do worry that it's too small
yeah I mean they're gonna have to like register because they're still restricted in the US yeah then
you need like fucking legal and accounting but like I don't know I just the I just saw this the
number of people and I'm like that's fucking crazy how much they make for like no people 100%
it's it's an awesome company I'm that's like that was my most bullish bullish crypto plague going
into this cycle now I've brought it out a little bit I'm actually super bullish on Litecoin super
bullish on Litecoin um privacy hardcapped UTXO um the Tosu funds that's one but I think the the
thing that I was thinking about is I don't know how the internet is gonna survive if everyone's just
using agents and not like visiting sites so I was like there's gonna have to be a point where
these agents have to start paying a toll to like these companies it's using you think though so like
otherwise the internet's not gonna exist and then they're not gonna get their training data like I
don't how's it gonna work like they should be going and read it scraping it stealing the data
because they're stealing it and they should be paying a small like micro transaction so like who
makes money off that cloud layer I don't know yeah I haven't even thought about that bro like
I haven't even released any damn agents like I got mute mute and I was thinking about getting
grap but I'm still like hooked on chat GPT and I kind of just middleman I haven't given an access
to like my email stuff I just I'll just ask it to write things and and make things and I'll just
submit it myself because I just don't trust these I have one responding emails for me and then
it went up I'm trying to tell you what we got some um uh crazy you know like fuck man I got
to explain myself and I had to tell everyone I was using a bot and they're like oh don't
worry I didn't even read it out of her set man it's we're living in a crazy time bro but I think
this fear is could be it could be profitable if you play it right but we got three new speakers on
the stage I'd like to welcome them to Toshie Darkside and Blake so you're gonna jump in please
hey guys um one question for everyone you know Bitcoin's only down one percent today but
say to our beloved digital credit is down 4 percent I thought I thought this thing was supposed to
I thought I'd have less than five I can speed out 4 percent I don't believe it's because I have
less downside I was told I could get equity like you're about to get me you're about to get
to get the block from half an X over here to Toshie come on man come on man it's not
played it with Bitcoin in the year the Macau I've been guys oh why would explain to me why
fix income would be Corley was Bitcoin it's a fun god these fucking good evening good afternoon
doctor how you doing brother I just had a long conversation with chat GBT and it told me to go
outside and touch grass and stop scaring it I actually like your post that you've been posted man
like I'm always liking them thank you man thank you now look I you know I think that we're going
into some crazy times man you know when you see stocks down gold down silver down Bitcoin down
just about everything down like nothing's going off that's fucked up man it's really really
weird dark dark so whenever we have like these major pullbacks like covid um we see everything go down
and I think that's where people get scared and that's that that's like the whole fear factor is
like oh everything's crashing like and then they just kind of end up selling but um so that's
kind of normal right for like everything to go down at once and people to panic into the dollar
yeah here's the thing right like you know you get to these you know zero zero correlation events
where everything everything just goes down but usually it happens for a reason okay now it's
happening for no real reason and yet the fear in like you know social media of hacks
good world governments telling you to have 90 days food supply the US government telling the army
bases to like before we self-supporting like it just it just feels really weird bad like the
vibrations of our society are like crazy right now so I know you know it's just like it feels like
it's like the market knows something bad's coming and yet and we all know something bad's coming
but we can't figure out what it's going to be is that does that make any sense yeah that makes sense
I take you're you're hiding in digital credit right I'm hiding in the stretch and reading out the
store I gotta say bitcoin held up very well today UTXOs held up very well today unspent transaction
output hardcat cryptos um like coin manero bounce today because manero is kind of a dark coin when
everything's hacked exactly you know it's a scalp with the narrow you can't lie though look we're
like I've been following it for a long time and it's you can't lie it's been performing well like
it's only a 10 billion dollar market cap coin so you gotta expect you know some crazy
concerns but who really share really about like I've been kind of bullish on like coin
who cares your Bitcoin already now I see the profile pictures and I already know you so
yeah I expect that but yeah now but you're probably right but for those of us who are trying to
get ahead and you know beat Bitcoin could we need to get ahead man like wait the way to get ahead
is to solve a real problem that's how you get ahead in this world yeah soft soft solve a real problem
and there's a ton of money out there for you but those those things don't solve any problems they're
just themes I don't know man it's just a crazy time I like I get to feel something really
big is coming and we're just not sure what it is I got that feeling too man I really do Blake what's
that man how's it going good bro how's it going man well you know I'm doing great but I don't
want to rub it in anyone's base I do have a question for dark side if that's all right go for
go for a brother so there there have been occasions where you've mentioned certain things and
within you know maybe a quarter or two I'll have to give it to you they they come to fruition the
first one that comes to my mind is earlier this year you were talking about the derivatives markets
low spot demand for Bitcoin and how it could potentially lead to a massive short squeeze event
and that's exactly what we saw you know at the bottom of the market and we got that huge rip up into the
80s you had mentioned something that tickled my ears in the same way which was at any given point in
time with strategy they could announce a business model change that could send the the common skyrocketing
in value and you'd mentioned different things like being a broker or a market maker or whatever it
is but I did start to research that a little bit and I don't actually think that's the case and I
wanted to pick your brain on it they they are still heavily dependent on passive you know investment
from being in different indices or whatever it is and the NASDAQ specifically would exclude them
if they went over and transitioned to any of the business models that you're talking about that
could potentially cause that that skyrocketing the common value I don't think they want that I think
their hands are actually tied right now to what they've done what what are your thoughts on that
counter argument I got a lot of thoughts about strategy um let's let's start out focused on the
can we start out though focused on I'm gonna get there but let me start with the CFO because I've
been thinking long and hard about this it's very strange for the CFO to quit and give seven days notice
that's just not right like normally in any kind of normal situation that was amicable with management
you would you know at least serve out the end of the year probably six months right until you could
get you know the person has taken over up to speed so when you say I quit and I'm leaving in seven
days that usually you know again just my opinion here but how I'll take that as not being amicable