STOCK MARKET TALK | TRADING WITH SINGLE STOCK LEVERAGED ETFS

we talked about this again yesterday is that I think there was this idea that there was going to be this massive blue wave and possibly the Democrats would take the Senate. And look, I don't trade based on politics, but we'd be stupid not to acknowledge the fact that there has been somewhat more of a anti-AI populist attitude on the Democratic side. So I think there was this fear, which might have spurred some of the sell-off in the last four months before the AI apocalypse that the Democrats would take the House on the Senate and put the Ky Bosch on a lot of these projects. But the polls are actually tightening. They've been tightening the last few days and it looks like even though the Democrats might win, they're probably not going to take the Senate. And the market likes nothing better than a tied up Congress, right? A government that can't really get anything going because no side has the majority because that just leaves the playing field clear for businesses to move ahead. They don't have to worry so much about regulation. So I think all in all we're in a pretty good spot here. I'm seeing more names set up on my watch list. And so I think if we can get past next week without any major shakeouts, I think we're poised to have a potentially good end of the year. I like it. And November is typically the most bullish month, right, for stocks. I believe that's correct. I'd have to check with my buddy, Almanac trader to be sure. But I know November starts the six most bullish months of the year. It's actually nine months of the four-year cycle. Three quarters. There you go. Boom. logical what's going on man. Hey, hey, sorry, I'm doing a little bit of grocery shopping on the side here. Not much, man. You know, I thought I think the market's actually shaping up nice, so I can't deny it. The biggest thing for my risk on sentiment is that the IWM not living more than two-hundred day. And yesterday, it reclaimed it. We got a lot of call volume coming, which is pretty atypical for the IWM index. And then I had like a hundred million dollar through the calls across Microsoft, Amazon, Truvell, Apple. That's insanely bullish. A couple of weeks ago, you had the Excel app. It loses the two-hundred day. And there were some calls there. But yeah, I mean, my risk on like line that's end has been the two-hundred day on the IWM. And, you know, it reclaimed it and those calls came in. So, I have to shift my bias ultimately. And I'm sure people they are your flip-flopper. Like, no, dude, I'm just reacting for the price action. And if that's the case, yeah, I put on more long and slow through as I said yesterday. And, yeah, I mean, I think I'm still very wary of this market potentially rolling over for the risks. But as I posted something over the weekend, you know, the Mont-Rick Fool had a podcast episode and it was called like the AI blow up or something like that. And yeah, I just feel like maybe even though I feel like pretty convicted in all the bear cases out there. My issue is that, it has become a little too consensus. And so, I definitely don't want to miss a rally. So, I'd layered back on a long story. Bob, I heard you and Stocktalk were making fun of Evan for buying MU this past week, past Friday. Yeah, yeah. I mean, look, it's less about making fun of him for it. It's more about, you know, he was talking about dip buying certain things and it's like, if the bear case was to come through about the AI stuff, that would be the multiple vulnerable. So, that, you know, obviously, hats off in for an ice trade so far. We'll see how the memory story unfolds, but it's obviously the highest risk in my view. So, that's why I just feel like, I, yeah, it is what it is, right? I'm sure I'll get tagging comments I don't really care. Eventually, there will be like terrible devastating roll over for memory in my view. Eventually, you know, is it now or is it later still in the question? Well, what logical saying is eventually Evan gets something right. Is what he's saying? Yeah, Evan's all done. Well, I'm kind of curious if the memory and missed most of the memory related commentary, but is it just going to affect memory or is it going to also affect chips as well? I think it'll affect everything eventually, but it seems like we're bucking the trend for now. So, I'm going to stay. Now, my, you know, I have to, I have to pivot my, at least shorts and medium term bias back to long. I know eventually these, these all will probably end in tears. I don't believe in a lot of the demand for the AI build up, but, you know, for now, the S1 on Anthropic was much more bullish. And I think the bears, you know, can't refute a lot of the points. I mean, they have 130 billion in cash. They're going to raise another 100 billion. Clearly, they can keep the party going. So, seeing that they're, you know, more profitable at the time being, than people expected on a catapult basis. You know, it's really tough to be bearish in that kind of circumstance. So, my problem is mostly been, you know, do we start to see the cracks? I still believe that their, you know, their revenue is absolutely like slowed. I think that's a fact at this point, you know, going from 145% growth in due to 45% in Q3. Yeah, I think I, I'm not sure about like their customers revenue driven like demand to be able to build out, you know, their compute commitments and that kind of thing. I think a lot of the compute is still demand and their compute commitments are still driven by training and internal. They can keep that party going for now. But if you were to remove some of that demand, if they were not able to get additional financing, that would be devastating. I was with Evan on that train. I did buy some of you at 860 and 99 cents. So it has been nice to see a little bit of a move here and I'm actually I end up saying this a little bit too. I wish I bought it off that 200 days in May tap. It's the first time San disk is ever even touched that 200 days in May. I'm pretty sure like in the last, I don't know, year plus two or so. There's some enticing things to me, but I hear your thoughts on some of the build out items. I'm going to keep rolling around just give everybody a chance. If anybody wants to talk, let me see off the start here as well. We can have a mix bag of thoughts. Roy, thanks for joining in. I know the service was rough over there. Yeah, in your milk. Yeah, we got to. Okay, cool. Yeah, internet's out. So I'm on 5G. So yeah, it's nice to see the market react the way it is. I think part of it is just so much was priced in negatively, negatively as far as with everything in inflation included a bit of a hawkish pause, but it was kind of as expected, which is nice. Fewer meetings, I think is going to lead to let's volatility to the next year, which is great. Not so much related to the FOMC stuff, but Oracle's investor day really, really helped out the data center space. Them saying that they're going to limit themselves. I believe it's through 2030 to no more than an additional 20 billion in terms of the debt or equity raised. So and of course, giving guidance on when they expect to be free cash flow positive and how positive as well. So just a lot of positive reads, but I really think that like the biggest factor is what one of you guys had said just recently, like greater clarity on what's going to happen with the election. That's nice. We're looking at a situation of gridlock, which the market just freaking loves because it loves certainty. And we've been in a roller coaster politically and as far as a market as well. And so we're going to gridlock provides a lot more clarity of what things are going to be like at least for the next two years. Of course, you know, things will shift. It'll still be volatile. There'll still be a maybe a kitty version of the roller coaster, but we're also lining up well with seasonality with the last two months of the year. Plus the trend that we've seen since 1970 of the markets going up this if you 500 increasing by 14.1% on average after midterm elections. Usually we see a little bit of run before the election when there is clarity on what the polls are indicating what's going to happen with the election. But yeah, regardless, all these things just kind of line up to I think we're in for some good times, which is going to be a bit of a relief. It's not all going to go straight up though, but I don't mind seeing a little green in my portfolio after the last two weeks. We're all bullish. Does anybody not feel bullish on the panel? Does anybody think it's a fake out? All right. Everybody's in a lockstep. I don't know if that's good or bad here. I mean, let me push back on that. Yeah, real quick. So whenever we have a pullback, there's a series of things that have to happen for you to be more and more confident that the pullback is over. Pullback correction, bear mark doesn't matter. Anytime the market is going down. First thing sounds stupid, but you have to stop going down. By definition, you have to stop going down before you're going to recover. So we stopped going down last Friday, barely. We barely stop going down. Then the next step is you have to recover some moving averages. Then you have to recover support resistance levels. You then have to break short-term trend lines, recapture moving averages, blah, blah, blah. It's a progressive process and every piece of that process gives you a little bit more confidence. Now you can buy as soon as the first day we stop going down, but that's a higher risk trade. Sometimes it pays off sometimes it doesn't. For me, the best risk reward trade is what I call the move after the move. That's when you stop going down and you get a rally and then you pull back for a day or two, little consolidation. Then the rally continues. The reason why that's a better risk trade is because you have a spot where you know you'll be wrong, that little pullback area, that consolidation area. You're getting fall through after that initial trade. Right now, we're still in that initial move. We've basically gone straight up since Friday. We had a pop on Monday, fall through yesterday. Now we're going up today again. I'd like to see us base a little bit. I'd like to see maybe just a day or two rest kind of where we're at. I think that would set us up to a really good move post election. The action we've seen in the last four days, certainly short-term. It's been bullish, but I need to see a little bit more constructive action in the charts before I'm ready to say, you know, I feel like we're going to go into the end of the year with a little bit more tailwind behind us, but I still have a few little reservations until we can see the structure of the chart set up a little bit better. We're kind of flat today, right Brian? I mean, you're saying we're up, but I mean, we're really basically back to flat here at this moment. Yeah, I mean, yeah, we're flat. I mean, today would be a good, like if we closed right here today and tomorrow was kind of a nothing like a narrow range bar, then I would consider that the, you know, get ready for move after the move. So maybe on Friday, we could start moving. I think it's really, you know, you're seeing a rotation, which was from the safety trade, you're starting to see it head back towards the AI trade. But now, of course, you have Microsoft and Google tonight with Intel, Sandisk, and Amazon tomorrow. So I mean, these are big players. I mean, all the memory names will have reported in the last three weeks by tomorrow night, you know, all the storage memories. So I think that's really going to set the page here. They bought a C gate back. I mean, that thing was getting killed last night and this morning, they bought it all back in like green. So telling what's interesting is we're not so far off all time highs. And yet, there's a lot of big cap tech names that aren't participating Netflix is not participating and video is not participating. Google's not participating. Metas definitely not participating. Netflix is no longer a growth company. I think they're I get it. Yeah, transforming, right? I take them off my radar as as a eight barometer for the market anymore. I understand what you're saying, but they're like Warner Brothers or any of the other. They're just concasts. They're just your media company now. Nobody cares. So my point is if these names do start getting in gear, Amazon, Meta, Google, Nvidia, whatever, we could we could very easily get to all the highs super quickly. I mean, we got within what, eight handles of it today, give or take. I mean, for right there on the spy, it's just it's there if they want it. It's incredible how well this market has held up. I know everybody, if you're in the AI trade, you feel like it's been a massive bear market the last four months. But really for civilians, like I've got friends who have lives and they don't look at the market as much as we do, they're having a great year. And they're just sleeping well at night and they think it's great because this market has held up really well, even though it's been battered with so many different data points that should have knocked it down. If we can get past all those data points, like I said, I think we could set it for a good end of the year. Look at Apple. Despite all the negativity stuff, it's just off the all time high, just sitting there digesting nice. Right? I mean, if you want to be concerned, Google looks ugly going to earnings tonight, but we'll see. They definitely do not like what Meta is doing with their debt and some of this financing games they're doing. But I still think that it's going to be a screamy buy down here sooner than later. And yeah, I mean, they've hated the semis now for months. I mean, so the fact that they continue to try to sell them off on earnings just doesn't surprise me at this point. I saw a couple others. Oh, yeah, somebody has thought you're jumping. Yeah, I'm going to say, I think the meta thing is a little bit isolated to meta. I know we have people up here who love meta like homie, but I just think that the issue with meta is not the same issue as the other mag seven that are raising capital because in my view, they're you know, directly benefiting in their core business segment from the CapEx. Like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are hyper scalers meta is not meta. They're they don't have a cloud. They're not a cloud service provider. No, no, no, no, they've started. They're starting to sell it. They're access capacity. Yeah, yeah, I know it's small, but they've started getting in. Yeah, that's just not a convincing $200 billion a year of CapEx spends versus something like Amazon that is at a 110 billion run rate, and they're pushing 35% gross margins and half the internet is being hosted on it. Like, we're talking about a company that just bet the farm, you know, a solid percent of their overall market cap, the size of the company on this AI push and them use, you know, hype died within a month, and you know, we'll see if that continues to have legs, but the truth is they're not actually improving their core business beyond maybe some efficiency gains on the ed side, which I've always