Bitcoin and Stocks: Q4 Dump

stuff where sometimes it works and other times we get some lunatics out of a left field coming at me and I don't really want that. But if you guys have some questions, feel free to request. I'm just looking through here. I'll obviously bring a Mitch up. Mitch, how's it going? I thought I brought him up. Let me see. Yeah, he's speaker. How's it going, Mitch? Hey, Ben, what's up, man? So, yeah, I mean, in regards to that and apologies if I'm asking questions, if you're just repeating yourself, I haven't caught some of your latest videos. But I know a couple of months ago, you were waiting for, or like back in July, like you're waiting for certain indicators likely out on the MVRV score to hit a certain level before you're going to start I know DCA in through the second half of the midterm year. And then we shot up to like 87k and I know you were kind of like, well, you know, it only hit the level I wanted to go to maybe like nine days or something on that. Five days. Five days. Okay. Yeah, it was something like that. And then, you know, now I'm curious because I know you've had your kind of your eye out saying like, hey, you know, it's this doesn't mean we're just rocking back to do time highs. We can go back to lows like you just like you're post-serial. You're saying, well, now's that could go back to it's summer lows. Like, why can't Bitcoin do that? And I'm kind of curious what your strategy is, you know, from here, if you're mainly kind of on the sidelines waiting for something like this to happen, if there are certain points on the chart that you, you know, are waiting to kind of DCA back in. You know, what are your thoughts on that? And then a second question it's related to this too is that we had talked about micro strategy, you know, over the course of this past year and kind of lining up the fractal from, you know, the 2021 peak to the 2022 low. And I think it lined up. It was like right around where to follow that fractal would be like bottom kind of like right around November, like right right about now kind of like November of 2026. And it, you know, I mean, I don't know if we'll go back down to 80, but it's still, you know, pretty low from where it was. So still good entries. But yeah, I don't know, I'm just kind of curious what what you're looking at in terms of averaging back in. If you are looking at certain metrics to get back in or if, you know, 75K is good or what I don't know, I'm just kind of curious what where you're at currently. Yeah, I think it's a good question. So, so what happened in July is I, you know, Bitcoin went down to 57. And I put out a video kind of like comparing it to 2018 and kind of noting the summer low in 2018 was around 5700, right? And sort of saying like, hey, we're probably going to have a summer low. And this seems around the time when we would have it, right? Like late June early July. So I bought a little bit of Bitcoin. But as you said, like I didn't really, you know, fully get the position that I wanted because I only got arguably about maybe like I think like around 10 to 15% of what I would ideally want, you know. And part of the reason for that was because the metrics that I use to kind of tell me whether I want to buy it or not, they were only the rules that I set for myself, right? Like I try to like set rules that I follow because I find that if I just set rules and follow those, I tend to be more successful than like, you know, emotional trading, like, you know, buying when it's rallying and selling when it's dumping. So I bought in not a lot, right? Just 10 to 15% and yeah, like it's been a tough, right? It's been tough two, three months because like technically I was making money, but you know, I was also expecting the price to go back down, right? And then the Bitcoin rallied up to 87K. And I was like, look, I was wrong about not taking out the May high. I thought I thought we would set a lower high, right? So that kind of threw me off guard because that was not like what I expected. But yeah, no, I mean, I historically, this is what I'll say. And I've said this a few times and I'm not like, I don't want to be a doomer. I mean, like I hope, like I'm sort of thinking that the most likely outcome is that Bitcoin has a bull market in 2027, right? Like so my goal would be to accumulate before then ideally. Now where it gets tricky. And this is kind of the hard part that I'm wrestling with right now is if Bitcoin, just let's say Bitcoin goes back to 60K, right? And I don't know if it is. I mean, you know, obviously I said the other NASDAQ is that is that is taken out the summer low. So why can't Bitcoin? Let's suppose Bitcoin just goes to 60K and it's a higher low or like 63K or something like that. That would certainly be like a strong area of interest because then it's basically the same price that I was in July. And it's also I think around the 200 week moving average, if I'm not mistaken. I think the problem for me longer term and you know kind of seeing what Bitcoin is doing against other assets. I think if Bitcoin were to go down and print a higher low, then you could still have a bolt like a sort of like a bullish move into 2027. But I think it would be a lot more tempered than if we went and said a new low, if that makes sense because historically the way it's worked is Bitcoin sets new lows in Q4, not higher lows. But with the higher high, we had a couple or a couple of months ago, like it's not completely out of the question for Bitcoin to just simply print a higher low. So I think my strategy would likely just be to DCA, especially kind of going back, do you remember, I'm not, I'm not a little scatterbrain, but do you remember like in Q4 when Bitcoin, like the risk met like none of the top indicators were actually firing off, like nothing that normally marks the U4 top where it was happening. Do you remember that? I do remember and frankly, that's what tripped me up in this last cycle because I was looking for that kind of, I was looking for those and I was like, well, I don't think we're quite there yet, and honestly, I should have lightened up my position more when we broke through the 50 day going, what was it in like late October, November, whatever it was. But anyway, yeah, I know what you're talking about. Yeah, so what I did back then was I was like, look, I don't think these U4 indicators are going to hit because like it just doesn't, like we're running out of time, right? Like if you believe in kind of the cadence of the four year cycle, you know, like it, we were just running out of time essentially for, for, you know, a U4 rally. So then what I shifted to, I shifted my strategy from instead of selling based on, you know, U4, U4 indicators, which did not look like they were happening, we were running out of time, I started selling based on a time based view, right? Like I just started selling because I was like, well, like this is normally when we top and and I kept comparing it to 2019 as well, like that apathetic top where we had no rotation into altcoins and, and, you know, the Fed had indiquantitative tightening and they had, you know, they had lowered, they had lowered interest rates that same year. So it just seemed kind of similar. So I basically convinced myself that despite the fact that the U4 indicators were not going to hit, that it was still time to sell anyways, right? So I think I would probably do the same thing as Q4 goes along, right? Like if, like I want to give it time, I mean, I want to give it a little bit of time to see if it plays out, but like I'm not going to sit here on my hands for the, you know, for the rest of the year and not buy anymore, if that makes sense because I think this, the same thing could happen as well as we could, we could get to a point where we just simply run out of time for the sort of the four-year cycle bear market to take place, right? I mean, I think it can extend for a little bit longer because we're still in the midterm year and there was one year where it even extended into January, but that, that would be my strategy, would be to pivot over to a time based accumulation view, but, you know, before the end of the year, assuming that those indicators don't actually, you know, get hit. Now, but because we're in the correction right now with stocks, like it's hard to know exactly exactly when things end, and, you know, you have rallies like you had yesterday, to me, that's a hallmark of a, of still being in a bear market, because what happens in bear markets is you get these rallies that are basically like face melting rallies that feel like you're just getting left behind and then you wake up the next day and then everything's retraced back down. To me, that's more of a hallmark of a bear market, not a bull market. Normally in bull markets, you're not as likely to just retrace these gains constantly, likely, likely seen. So that, that would, I hope that answers your question. Yeah, I think so. I mean, it's to sum it up, it's basically where we're, I mean, kind of more less than the sweet spot. Now, I mean, for November, November, December of 2026, based on the time-based kind of schedule, but potentially extended to January. But anyway, say over the next three months, kind of, this is kind of your sweet spot. Yeah, and I think like if we don't set a new low, which is certainly a possibility, right? Like I, it's not, it's not like it's just because the NASDAQ did doesn't mean that like Bitcoin has to, but if we don't set a new low, then I'm not yet sure how I would handle that in 2027. Like I'm not saying I would turn bearish right away. Like I, I still would be bullish, you know, for the first probably like at least three to six months of 2027 regardless. But it might change what happens, you know, say like mid 2027, or my thoughts mid 2027. It could be, it could be similar to, you know, some of the other pre-having year bull markets where they just kind of go off and then kind of come back down by the end of the year. And then maybe in the having year, we start to really pick back up. Yeah, gotcha. One more question I had for you because I know that you're like really interested in SpaceX. You know, unlike yourself, I'm not, I'm definitely not diverse, but I'm like very heavy in Bitcoin. But SpaceX is super interesting to me, and that's something I really want to, to build a sizable position in. And you know, watching over the last like, I mean, especially being someone that's like deep in the Bitcoin space over the course of 2025 and holding my bags, you know, while watching AI stocks just just rip like crazy in Bitcoin, you know, in a bear market. You know, that wasn't the most fun experience. And like, okay, well, I really need to get a position. And I think SpaceX is the, the one I'm looking at and knowing that you're interested in that as well. Where, what are you, what are you seeing in the chart? Are you looking at certain spots to, you know, really start really start picking up shares? The last time I bought SpaceX was back in, like, I think it was early August. And it was around the time of the unlock. And the only reason I did it was two reasons. Number one was it, like a lot of times when people get super bearish on stocks because of an unlock, that ends up marking a low. Like I'm sure you've seen that happen many, many times. And it's also happened in crypto as well. A lot of times when like some altcoin has some like unlock and it's super bearish going into it. And then on the other side of it, there's some rally. So that was part of it. The other part of it was kind of comparing the launch of SpaceX with how Tesla launched. And they, they both had these like really large rallies right after the launch, like 50 to 60%. And then the time to buy Tesla was essentially like wait about a month to a month and a half after the launch of Tesla. And then start buying and kind of noting that Tesla still stayed relatively weak throughout the, the second half of the midterm year after the launch. And by the way, Tesla launched in June of 2010. It was also a midterm year. So that was kind of the thinking is just accumulate in the second half of the midterm year, starting in about August for space for SpaceX because I didn't want to fomo into the 50% rally on launch. And then, and then, you know, just kind of accumulate as the year goes on. So as it stands right now, I bought SpaceX back in August. I haven't bought any since. But I probably would be looking to buy that as well here in Q4. Now, look, if we get a recession or something like that, obviously, SpaceX can go lower. But I mean, as it stands right now, like that's not that's not that's not what we're immediately looking at. And my like, I think we have a nasty correction on our hands. But we also had a nasty correction in late 2018 too. Right? That was then recovered in the following year. So I'm not yet in the recession camp. Obviously, if that were to occur, SpaceX could always go lower. But I'd be looking to buy a little bit more SpaceX probably before the end of the year. The kind of like, I mean, honestly, kind of like Bitcoin, like it's kind of the same, it's nearly the same setup, right? Arguably as Bitcoin is in a lot of ways, like, you know, kind of setting a low around the summer, rallying back up into Q3, and then kind of coming back down into Q4. Yeah. And then looking out. So like, okay, say we're kind of in the midst of our correction here. We go through the next few months. Things get a bit beaten up, start DCAing in. Okay, now bags are packed. And we look into 27, 28, 29, I guess for four year cycle, what that would put us, you know, what you're looking at, I guess, Q4 of 2029 for the next at least having your, you know, your kind of radar out there for a potential cycle peak, are where do you fall in that camp? Because I like looking at, you know, Matt Cole put out some of his thoughts, you know, the CEO strive that, you know, he's projecting end of 2030, 500 K Bitcoin thing. He were going to get like a 50% keg or I see a lot of the four year cycle people more in line like, oh, hey, maybe we get like 180 220. Do you do you have any, I don't know if you necessarily always like to throw out price predictions, more time based, but what do you have any thoughts around that? I think for me it, a lot of it depends on what happens here over the next month or two. Like if Bitcoin were to reset all the on chain indicators, right, like that you mentioned earlier, things like the MBRVZ score, that kind of stuff, it would make it a hell of a lot easier just to be just to be a permable on it for the next couple of years, right?