STOCK MARKET TALK by Stocks On Spaces

here, 30 years. I will tell you, I think Corrieve is a crap company. I've told you this is a crap company. This is the worst garbage. But listen, I mean, that's going up. It seems to be closer to pricing in something happening, ish, I mean, not quite there, but listen, there was a polymarket market that I was looking at. And there's like a 17% chance to clear bankruptcy next year is when it was pricing in. Yeah, I mean, Corrieve has, Corrieve has just so much debt. It's a very, I mean, they're businesses at tough business. We've never seen this work really well. So, you know, I think, you know, we talked about this. I've talked about this before. I just don't like their business model. So, yeah, Corrieve is getting hammered, but you know, look at, look at Bonnie, look at bonds. Bonds are highest of the day. Yields are low of the day. And yet the market keeps dropping. I think there's something really weird going on here. The VIX is up, but it hasn't gone nuts. I don't know, Apple held in today, Apple's a safety name. I don't know, I just don't have a strong feeling here. I think bank reports were okay, they weren't great, they weren't bad. And you know, banks are down, but they're not out. JPM, we're gonna have a nice bounce back today. I don't know, I made two trades today. I traded Apple, made some money, and I'm sitting in a very few spy calls, which are not doing well. And honestly, I think here is, I think any dip here is viable, and I think especially the dip in the semis. You know, if you look at the SMHs, they lost a 50 day with power today. And we're seeing some big down ticks. Micron is getting absolutely destroyed today. Nvidia is down, but not out, but down and well under the 50 day. AMD all the way back just under yesterday's low. I think these are where like viable dips that we're gonna have into the end of the year. I don't think anything's changed with my thesis here. I'm just gonna say though, man, you said we lost the 50 day with power, and you think that's a viable dip. I just disagree with that. Because there's no volume, right? So for me, when you lose the 50 day, and you have, we're at like eight million shares today on the SMH, when you lose it, when you lose it, gap down under it, when you lose it with, you know, two times normal volume, that's a problem. When you lose it with average volume or a little bit more, I don't know. I don't think it's a huge issue. This feels like orderly selling, I don't know. Yeah. Orderly selling, that's exactly it. Yeah, I'll wait for you to finish it all. I don't have much else. I mean, for me here personally, I think that this is a viable dip that we're gonna get a rally here. I think part of the problem, it's what's going on with the administration and the manager charge and the market has lost faith in him and believes he's gonna lose the midterms. And I think that's part of what you're seeing quite up and all this that nothing's changing and things continue to be expensive. And I think this is just kind of a reflection of that. And I hate bringing politics into this, but sometimes you have to. Go ahead. Yeah, I'm gonna respectfully disagree with mostly everything you said. I think today's action is very important. And I think that the core we've news and you had like an analyst from DA Davidson basically come out and say that the equity could be a zero. I think that's the bigger problem. I think that the bond yields hitting 15% yesterday, which is essentially a thousand BIPs spread, 10% spread between the risk free rate that takes you into distressed territory. So that's what bond investors are saying. Can I bring you back you back up a second? Let's go back to core we have. Core we've had one of the worst business models that we know of on Wall Street. We've seen this before. Their business model sucks. So I don't think that's a big problem for the market overall. It's a problem for them. They'll just disagree with that. I think it's more indicative of the contagion. That's the issue. It's like a me, it's like what's the company that was selling off of space back and then we had the pandemic. Help me out there, public. We work. We work. Thank you very much. It's the same type of business model. I don't think that's the same at all. The AI trade is exactly the same. I've been those industries. I mean, exactly the same. I mean, come on man, selling off of space versus the AI story and the data center build up through the other things. It's not about what you're selling to. It's about the debt you'd load you take on and the minimal return to getting your investment and they have the same problem. If the, okay. If CoreWeve, which has the probably biggest scale of all of the Neo Clouds, is entering distressed territory, what does that signal about the rest of the Neo Clouds? That's why they are all also down. They have a very similar business model. I think CoreWeve is probably the most levered for their expected negative free cash flow. And that's the issue, is that in my view, capital is drying up. And you're seeing that because bond investors are wanting a higher yield to fund their build out. And so this entire thing only works if there's more and more capital to pour into this trade. If CoreWeve is unable to get capital, why would Iron, why would everything else? So I think the issue is more to do with the market of saying this is unsustainable. And we can't continue to fund this. And even had JP Morgan with the headline yesterday saying that there was a recently very large bond deal done and they got minimal exposure to it. So look, I think it's, let me tell you why I think it's important. You saw yields spike this morning on the inflation data. That was the right thing to happen, right? That sounds, that makes sense. Though I did see a lot of people, basically because we've come in at lower inflation than estimates for some of the last months, I saw a lot of people say inflation is most likely going to come in under. Today the inflation story it ticked up. And a lot of that was due to gasoline. So obviously oil prices are hurting us. So inflation up yields up, that makes sense. But look at yields now, they fell all the way back down. And to me, that's signaling to you. I don't want to say, I don't say this to say I necessarily agree with what I'm about to say next. But I think what that signals to you is that they are concerned about contagion. They're concerned that there could be a slowdown in the AI buildouts. That's what investors are expecting. That there will be a slowdown in the buildout because it's unsustainable and there's not enough capital. And if that's the case, when you look at the GDP growth, if we did not have the AI story, then GDP would contract. And on a real basis would go to negative territory. So I think that the yields are telling you that this is a recession trade now. And I hate to say those words. Well, I mean, you know what I mean. If you kill the AI trade on wines or falls apart, pick your terminology right. I agree with you there. This market and the economy is screwed. Right, I wanted to use different word, but I bring myself in. I think you're right about that, right? The only thing holding this economy up and the markets are the AI trade. If that was to collapse, we have massive problems. You're the R word and whatever you want to go there, you're right. So yeah, that's what it is. And again, like, I think this is overdone. Yeah. I opinion this is overdone today. I've been doing this for 25 years. I think this is overdone. Maybe I would take the other side of that bet. I think that the the weaknesses finally getting to the index. I think my first signs that there was something more nefarious afoot is the fact that you had a breath completely collapse over the recent weeks, right? Over the last two months, see that RSP and IWM weigh down. Some people kept pointing to the RSP as look, it's bouncing. You know, there's some breath expansion. Maybe there's going to be a recovery in breath. But I view the IWM, even though people will be like, well, that's not how this works. I look at the IWM as more of a risk on metric because if the small caps are working, then this should work. But without bond yields coming down for whatever reason, they haven't worked. And actually, a lot of stocks have continued to make new lows. So the two options, and we've been pretty clear, is it's binary. Either the breath catches up to the index or the index catches down to breath. And I think now you're opening the door for, and again, when breath could not catch a sustainable bid for the last two weeks, now you're opening the door to the index to catch down to breath. And yeah, I just think that this story is a lot bigger because there's a ton of counterparty risk on these bonds. If people start getting nervous about all the debt that's been issued and all the capitals and that's at stake, I think that can have a real fear of contagion aspect to it. Whether we agree with it or not, you're seeing it in the yields of those bonds. So it's just a bigger problem. I don't think that this is a viable dip yet. I think that you should wait for it. Rally all day long, they're high to the day. We're not talking about the treasury yields, right? Wait, what are we talking about here? Because I'm looking at bonds. You're talking about treasury bonds. So you're seeing the bonds rally. That's not a good thing. Because there's look, and I made a post about this, it's like your first order of thinking is, oh, yields are down. This is a good thing. Your second order of thinking is, oh, yields are down. It's a flight to safety maybe, but or not, but I mean, I'm not going to have a bond of bond of bond eventually in there. I think it's a flight to safety is the issue. That's the point. I kind of disagree with you here. I think there is a worry here, but I think I do think you still have to look at volume on it today. Yes, it's their first 1% down day in 53 days, which is the longest period we've gone, like, X amount of years. I don't remember it. But hey, shouldn't you just, yeah, but here's a question, right? Isn't like you're using that the indexes at highs to support the claim that the market's still on good footing. But I would point to that and say, that's the risk in the market is that the index is still at highs. Like I saw people yesterday posting, you know, be fearful while others are, or be greedy while others are fearful. And then someone else quoted it and saying, the FTX is 1% off all time by the way. So it's like, there's no real fear. There's no, there's no fear in this market. We are at the most bullish time of year, right? November and a midterm election year is the best, I'm sorry, October is the best month of the year. November is the second bond best. It's historically a bullish time of year. And everybody wants to take the selection and get bearish. And I'm like, what about 2018? 2018. Like you have enough. Yeah, but you have, I mean, it's similar situation, right? 2018. Yeah, because remember, but 2018 rallied hard into the end of the year before it fell apart in January. We had a huge rally into the end of the year, and then we fell apart. I don't read into this, my friend. I disagree to base. So by the way, I love this. I'm not picking on you. I don't mean it. If I'm coming across that way, I'm not trying to. I just, I think I just think that we actually, I'm going to let somebody else speak because I spoke on that. But we actually, we actually corrected into the end of the year. We didn't rally. I think it was like the December meeting where they reversed course. And that's what they call it the taper tantrum. So I'm just saying that yields rates were going up in Q4 2018. That's why we had a correction in equity markets. So I wouldn't just count, like, I wouldn't just look at seasonality. I would kind of read the room. I don't think I have to always raise seasonality. So yeah, you do it. I just think you do. It's not a bug that actual, yeah, but yeah, exactly. You have to put it with everything. I think that if I was to put like on a scale season, I was at three or 24 million shares at three, 20 something in the afternoon. On a down day like this, we would typically be doing 100 to 200 million shares a day, and we're not getting that volume. I think you think of breath. We're still in the same range. We're just range bound. There's nothing's changed here. Until we break a range, nothing changed here for me. Brian, you got any thoughts? I would actually like to hear. I not want to hear Brian. He's at a turn. A monitor has had his hand up, and I wanted to go to monitor. Sorry, I couldn't see that. I want to hear monitor too. So there you go. I want to hear him. Yeah, I don't want to hear monitor, but that's fine. I'll speak. So just going back on Corey, look, this is a problem. This is a Canadian, a coal mine, and there is a lot hiding behind it. And it is not just Corey that's going to have this problem. It might be the first. It might be even the worst, but there's a lot going on here that is common to almost any of the GPU resellers outside of the big three, let's say. I put you in article in this mix, to some extent. Credit is just the first issue. For the longest time, they've been skating on one single fact that irrespective of price increases across the board on everything that they've done, cost increases rather on everything that they have in terms of their input. They have been given a pass because of their ability to keep increasing prices. The unit realization for GPU has been going up. And I don't think that's going to stay that way for long, especially as we have more capacity come in in very large quantities in the next few quarters. That pricing power is going to decrease and potentially at some point in time go away where it becomes buyer's market. Once you take that off the equation, then everybody