Next Big Trade: Fed Decisions, AI & Crypto Market Moves

pure algorithmic trader, I do trade algorithmic and also have even services for other people to use my algorithmic trading services. So in this session we've talked about trading the market current situation and I'm really excited to give you my view over the market since I have more of algorithmic trading perspective and hopefully it will be fun today to hear everyone else's opinion about the next big trade. Thank you. Great, it's great to have you here and the next is Katonia. Hi everyone, Mike Czech, can you guys hear me? Yeah, it works. That's great. So I'm happy to be on this one. My name is Victoria and I'm the CM at Katonia AI. We walk on the computer side of AI and people so people running AI models and agents can rent, process and power from many different nodes, scheduling fits each job to the right hardware and certain other platforms and chains so it can be perfect. So I'm really glad to be here and I really want to hear from the listeners because because the market has been doing crazy stuff so I wouldn't really hear what others have to say about the next thing. Yeah. Great, welcome. Welcome back. And yes, so great to have you here. I can wait and okay and the next is Owen, would you love to introduce yourself a little bit? Sure, hi everyone. I'm Owen and doing crypto and AI content and research. And glad to be here and I'd love to discuss those trending talks with everyone here. Thank you. Yeah, great, cool, cool. So okay, slide from. Would you try again? Hello, would you hear me clearly? Yeah, perfect now. Yeah, thank you. Okay, hello everyone and thanks for having us and we're really happy to be here looking forward to hear everyone's heard. So a quick introduction for anyone who knew till slide.fund. We are a telegram native platform on sona and Robinhood chain where people can discover, launch, enjoy, miniskore, through web-based experience. So that's and I'm happy to be here. Thanks. Great, great, welcome, welcome everyone. So thank you all for being here. So let's just start with the Fed, which is one of the biggest Fedher markets are watching right now. So the Fed meets next week and the markets are watching both the Ray decisions and the Fed's guidance. What are your expectations for the meeting and how could that outcome influence the direction of U.I stocks and crypto markets? Let's just start with the Cantonia. Cantonia, would you love to share your thoughts on this? Yeah, yeah, I would. I think a lot of this comes down to who is buying. So the weak spot Bitcoin ETF pooled in is in I think over a billion dollars across like three sessions and the price still exit back to around eight one and I think eight to two thousand and that tells me that the wires are there and what they are patient. So there's more allocators than there are chances. So if the Fed sounds huckish, I'd respect that kind of money to keep buying dips in Bitcoin while all coins take more of the heat because when rate goes up, the speculative end of the market is the festing people would drink. So ETA is a good example of that. So each funds are still down around a billion dollars for October and even after one personal day, so I wouldn't treat crypto as one trade around this particular meeting because Bitcoin behaves more like a macro asset now with ETA of demands sitting under it and most of the rest of the markets still runs on forward money and mood. So that's what I basically think about it, yeah great and I think I agree with you that like actually there are like many factors are moving their market right now. It's definitely not just like the final call by these fatizations. Definitely we need to look into several factors, right? But still, I think this is still the kind of like the important factors I'll are playing in this playground. Okay and slide the fun. How do you think about this? Well, I think the guidance group method just as you mentioned the actual rate decisions and my expectation that the Fed will give a brand new film toward on a flash inflation. So personally, I wouldn't go into this meeting assuming that easy to see is just around the consumer and you know market rate to the difference between what happened and what people were expecting. Even an unchanged rate can move price quite a lot if the message about the next film meeting changed. So it's a Fred style more comfortable with inflation and a bondel more lower that could give stock and a critical summer breath room. So but if the message is that policing need to stay tired for long hours and I would expect first so Fred's on the more speculative parts of the market as smaller, unquote and I mean, could be especially sensitive because liquidity can disappear pretty quickly. So there are also another scenario. If the feds are worried about growth, market might not immediately treat that as good news. So I don't think that software equal everything goes up is a variable shortcut from my side. Yeah, great. Thanks for sharing your thoughts. So I think let's just bring in units for a more hands-on perspective. So units, you manage several Spartans strategies yourself. Like how do you prepare your strategies for these like major events, like fan meetings, when send a market moves can create both opportunities and risk. Could you share how you approach these situations in practice? Yeah, of course. As you mentioned, for me, the Fed day is usually a risk off day, especially around the announcement time. And today's Fred decision, if you see at the head watch from the CME Group website, there's a 90% chance of a halt. So usually the ratio is when that high it's already priced in, in my opinion, but from my side, I don't guess based on what I think over the market. And for me, I have a lot of strategies which are already back tested, forward tested and they have a predetermined setting for the Fed day and announcements. So these kind of news, what we call our red folder news, maybe you heard. And in those red folder news, you generally, as a rule of thumb, want to close your positions beforehand or reduce your risk as much as possible, even though it's priced in or not. So in the automation world, in my opinion, the algorithm doesn't get nervous during the Fed day, you just follow the plan, just like any other day. So in my perspective, my goal is not to catch the big move if happens. There are some traders who are just purely trading news, by the way, but I am not in that algorithmic area. So for me, it is the survive and trade the calmer period after. That's usually how I approach the Fed decision. Thank you. Great. Thank you for sharing that. And I think it's also interesting to hear like how different traders prepare for this like uncertainty and manage risk around like this major market events. Okay. And so now let's move from macro to another like major market driver, AI and tech earnings. So meta and Tesla have just reported earnings, bringing new attention to AI spending and profitability. So what do these latest results tell us about the outlook for AI stocks and how might change sentiment around AI affect the broader financial markets for this question. When would you love to share first? Yeah, sure. So I look at the time and test as you know, their financial reports actually like may have advise business is like still doing really well. I believe their revenue grew. It's about like 2026% last quarter. And AI is already be helping them to make it as more effective. And the spending is actually getting pretty hard to ignore. They spent close to like 35 billion dollars on capital expenditure in just like a quarter. So even for a company like meta, that much money is a huge amount money, right? So there was also a big legal charge in the earnings report. So the decline in the profit doesn't tell the whole story. And also like Tesla has a different challenge like it's putting a lot of money into autonomous driving and robotics, right? And the growth in its car business has been actually relatively weak. So those newer business could become very valuable, but there's still a lot of uncertainty about how much money they will eventually make. And after the recent sale of investors seems less willing to give AI companies the benefits of the doubt. Like a couple of years ago, announcing a major AI investment could be enough to post just stock higher. But now people just want to see some financial resource. And actually, that quite may make sense to me. And AI is already creating real value in areas like digital advertising. And one company is spending huge amounts like tens of billions of dollars. Investors are going to expect their investment to show up in its earnings, right? And for me, I'm still positive about AI over the long term. Like some companies who are probably do extremely well and others might struggle to justify their current valuations. And I was a crypto agent like completely separate from any of this. And when you know, tech stocks sell off because investors are worried about valuations, you know, crypto, big coins can get caught in the same shifts in the market sentiment. And we've actually seen that haven't recently. And it's called continue like if the pressure on tech stocks doesn't ease. That's my take on this one. Thanks. Yeah, great. And I think just mentioned I think that's really important. And also as we just have like seen these AI earnings reports a lot this week. So it's more about the balance problem here. Like how do they actually like balance the AI spending and the profitability, right? Because investors are definitely looking to the returns. Great. Nice take. And for these questions, light fun. Would you love to share? Yeah. I think investor in asking a more practical question now that for me, I could focus on the where the revenue growth can support the investment. And for Tesla, I could separate the current business performance from longer term expectation around auto no me and robotics like exciting technology doesn't automatically mean not an attractive stock and price. If AI sentiment weakens and that could affect race in crypto too. And coming from the product side, a slight of an I would apply similar test that the product soft and real problem. And do user keep coming back? Yeah, that's all from my side. Yeah, great. And actually like there are many projects that are working on AI, right? But I think the final question is that like whether the users are willing to still stay on that platform and use that product. That's the real questions here. Okay. And the metrics I saw you connected here. We are just talking about the second question. Would you love to share? And also introduce yourself a little bit. All right. I'll tell you. Yeah, it's perfect. Go ahead. Wonderful. I'm really sorry, I'm sorry, I just had a bit of connectivity issue. I'm really glad to be here. So in simple terms, metrics.