Reality Check: KASH / Prediction Markets

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I got to say, I just a little little dopamine rush, you know, yeah. Yeah. A lot of fun. I do have some cash to eats up at the top. If you're not following cash, make sure you're doing that at cash underscore bot. We're going to dive in and figure out what is going on with prediction markets now. We were really heavy on prediction markets and then kind of faded away from talking about them very heavily until polymarket puts out some random wild ass post. But anyways, we'll dive into that Kenny GM. Let me get Lucas up here real quick. Kenny Polly. What up? How we doing? Don't want man. Don't know how about you guys? Fantastic. Fantastic. Just another day, bro. Another day, but closing the week out. So yeah, excited for that. Now, Lucas, you're not on stage in the space and I'm wondering if this is going to work. Kenny, let me know if you hear Lucas and everybody and all the other chats in YouTube. Let me know Lucas GM GM GM. How's it going? Doing fantastic. Nice to work. Nice to meet you. My audio is coming through the space. I think it is working. Yeah, I just want to make sure Kenny, could you hear Lucas? All right. Good deal. Kyle, you don't remember that one time where we had the Hoogha crew on. We had no up here and you couldn't hear Nova at all that day. Yeah, I know. But my point was my laptop and stream is all muted. So I'm hearing him through my phone as well. Okay. All right. Cool deal. I look at let's get into it, man. The prediction market, you know, it's it's kind of a finicky place. It's kind of crowded. I would say well, well with the with the top guys, you know, polymarket and calcium. It's just there's always something on the timeline about them and things happening. What made you want to go into prediction markets of all things? Like what angle did you see that needed to be fixed in prediction markets? That's an excellent question. In fact, backtracking 10 years in crypto, I was deep into cybersecurity. So everything to do with protocol securities, contract security. So I saw the worst of web through since 2019 to 2019, which are difficult things to forget. One thing I always always have deeply appreciated about crypto is that permissionlessness of absolutely everything you do not need to ask for certain gates to open for you to participate in whatever protocol and whatever activity. So that was first of all the first sign that I wanted to dive deep into prediction markets in the angle from the angle of a type that we're doing in cash. Fast forward maybe about five, six years into the space and to me coming into the space. And I started doing trading. So full on trading 24 seven high frequency trading at a hedge funds, whether that was the worst or best time of my life that is up to another discussion for sure. I definitely learned how the market moves and these insatiable hunger of people to quantify and to put a prize on absolutely everything around them. Right? Uh, polymarket Galaxy, they've done an amazing job at being so to say the Tesla of electric cars, right? They've shown to the world that there is a hunger to price things, everything around us, right? By so two things, the impossibility today to create a magical experience to create your own British market about your niche audience, about your niche topic, even short term prediction, so to say that is impossible, structurally and legally to do with Galaxy and polymarket. And the second thing that I absolutely saw like a huge trend like the internet back in the day was the quantification of everything around us. And that was those were the two main pillars. Why Galaxy is today pretty much. Yeah, being able to spot trends because every great memecoin trader says that and then you talk about trading up to even 10 years ago, like, I mean, they make it sounds easy. Oh, spot the trend before everyone else. Unipic says it like a lot of big traders, they they ran belong about how they can spot the trends early. Um, could you give any insight into that like trying to try and to figure out what trends are about to hit? Because I mean, prediction markets came out of nowhere and it was, it was even though polymarket had been around, it didn't garner the attention. I don't think until politics until the last election was wrong. That's when it really hit. Yeah, yeah, that's right. For polymarket it was definitely the elections and for Galaxy was sports. I mean, everybody everyone had to shine in one respective vertical for sure. But to address that question that you said about how to spot trends, I mean, I wouldn't generally say that I, all the trends that I spotted were right on, right? Cash is not the first venture that either I aggressively fail or successfully take on to the next level. So I've definitely been on both sides of the fence, right? On the size of AI is going to be a big thing, right? Then people, people, investors, the community didn't quite think AI could be created. Of course, with chance to be tea, everything changed before them. So, you know, even if you spot the right trend, you may be too early into the market. So definitely that was a bummer, but by from the day, seven, eight years ago, in terms of the trend of prediction markets, there wasn't really much to think twice about it. If you saw the gambling sector, the 50 billion worth in almost evolving, in every single state in the US back in the day, to the new space, the new gap that the prediction markets were having already on that side, the potential was massive. And we were talking about institutional long-term markets, whether it was politics, sports, comes along. But most importantly, when you go back to the community, when you go back to the actual users, the average gel on the street or the people deep into web 2, deep into web 3, they all express their convictions. They all share even their unsolicited opinions on places like social media, on places like Reddit, online, for sure. You know, online was the internet was the place where everybody now had an opinion, right? We've seen how the web 3 changed the the permissionlessness, the quantification and the pricing of things. And that's it. We've gone through RWAS, well, pricing, putting up price and absolutely everything. It was really an outbringer that opinions is the single most natural asset to human beings. By the art of speaking, we already have convictions, we already have opinions. Everybody comes from a different background. So even before going to more sophisticated or even exotic vehicles, the most natural thing for people is their own opinion. And the difference between the gap between today people with opinions and people with opinions that can be traded is huge. And that is exactly what Cash is here supposed to lead on to peonier. So it was mostly because of that gap of the difference between people with opinions and those people that have a tool that enables them to trade on these opinions. And even as of today, that gap is he's absolutely massive. He's billions of people that. Yeah. Everybody likes to be right. It doesn't matter. Every time I go to a friend's house for football games, whatever, I've had people bring up prediction. I've had them bring up Cal Shee. They can't pronounce it worth shit because they're just not in a, you know, Kalishi and that's some call it Kalisi. Yeah, I know. Yeah, Queen of the dragons. No. But yeah, it's my bad. Yeah, but everybody loves to have be they love having an opinion and they love being right. That's the biggest thing. And if they can prove that and back that with a prediction market or with money, then that validates them. And then it drives them to do more and more and more and more. But, you know, we have polymarket. We have Cal Shee. And there's plenty of others on multiple chains. Why has nobody else tried doing this putting it straight into the timeline the way that you guys are doing it at cash? Yeah, that's a good question for sure. We're not going to be the only ones one year from now. That's for certain. There is no pride as well in being the only ones in the market doing something. There is pride in doing it so well that you're pretty much the only player that people use even though the sector already has smaller players. So that's really the focus of cash. The, you know, prediction markets relatively are in Web 3. Everybody has heard about them. Smaller subsection of Web 3 has actually used them. So one of those things where in Twitter people are much louder than, you know, their facts and their actions represent. But then you go to Web 2, right? And prediction markets already people don't know what either of those words are when put together, especially. So, you know, there is there is already a sort of recent kind of launch and recent gold market with the, a gold market and Cal City spied their multi-billion dollar valuations so far. So the space, that to say the space is still nascent. There is still, you know, a bunch of protocols being born, a bunch of protocols dying, trying different things. But we haven't really seen, we've seen a concentration of protocols that just want to write on the wave that Bollumarket and Cal City showed. They just want to do a copy and paste of Bollumarket. That's what most of it is. Exactly. They, they, they hide behind the shadows of, oh, you're able to now do semantic arbitrage because there is a copy and paste between one market and the other one. In fact, they don't realize that the only one they're helping is the market maker behind. So we've seen people just trying to write on that wave and do the exact same thing, with the exact same focus, even the exact same market's resolution, spread theory, sound, so on. So that's, that's down to human ego and the greed of wanting to be a successful as somebody else. We wanted to go to the completely other side of this spectrum. So we didn't want to do long-term markets. We didn't want to do these massive appeal markets that everybody has an opinion on those markets. We wanted to really be the single best enabling creators, enabling people with influence, enabling people with a community to go from an idea that they believe it would work very well with their community. They would have a bunch of engagements. They would have a bunch of opinions, you know, different polemic opinions on the same topic. Do actually that idea be a tradable post on social media, right? Being a tradable post, a tradable reply, a tradable embed into whatever we are embedded, right? A social media just turns out to be one of the best but it's definitely not the only one. So that's the that's the very specific focus that we have, a cash, been able to enable creators to create their own markets and push them in the most natural way where actually users currently live for them to express their opinions onto something that is already trending. Nobody, absolutely nobody is doing the exact same thing, especially specifically in this magical way that we make it that we make it out cash. What about like US regulation? Do you see US regulation easing up on prediction markets as a whole? Because Kowshi had kind of scenes that have a foothold there. They're just like locked in. I mean, yeah, they're getting sued by every other state, you know, once a month, but how do you navigate the regulation? Yeah, no, Kowshi's position. I wouldn't necessarily put that as the big winner here. They completely depend on their license that they have from the CFTC. Should that license, should something happen to that license, we go from 40 billion to zero dollars as a valuation, right? So that makes them extremely, extremely fragile. Or they do or they do anything right? For sure, they decided to be regulated from from day one that opened the doors to the clarity that we have today on on prediction markets and definitely CFTC leading the way in terms of regulatory compliance, regulatory clarity on what's to happen or at least which government section which government department has the right, has the supervision at the jurisdiction of that that has thanks to them being very clear. We are going again, the total opposite route. From the very beginning of cash, we don't use a central limit order book. By definition, there is a centralized book where different orders come and end. You can make the book, you need market meritus to make this book or these books in the case of different prediction markets or different