AI frays; $CRWV CDS; Musk $SPCX/kid vs Anthropic; EU riots; $FITB

David D. Tawil Subscribe Podcast 1h 34m 0 downloads Added 2026-10-20 #Trending

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美国股市上周五遭遇重挫,标普500跌破5.1%、道指跌破102点,半导体板块连续第八天下跌(2008年以来最长连跌),能源板块成为唯一赢家,而CoreWeave单周暴跌25%、惠普企业等科技股同步重挫。 - 费城半导体指数上周五下跌3.8%,为连续第八个交易日下跌,创2008年以来最长连跌纪录,美光、英特尔、AMD均下跌约6%。 - CoreWeave周四短暂反弹后周五再跌12%,全周累计下跌25%,成为All-In播客讨论焦点。 - 印尼股市因可能被MSCI剔除出新兴市场指数而崩盘,雅加达综合指数周五暴跌11.5%(1998年以来最大单日跌幅),周一再跌逾5%创六年新低。 - 嘉宾Eric指出,印尼暴跌的根源是投资者对政府治理金融市场的信心缺失,新加坡作为印尼最大直接投资方将受波及。 - 中国第三季度GDP好于预期,但股市未受提振,沪深300已连续十周下跌;欧洲多国(法国、比利时、意大利、葡萄牙)动荡,法国金融股(法巴、法农、法兴)遭抛售。 - 比特币经历疲软周末后周一早盘反弹;OKX代币化股票项目已有九家发行方选择退出,当前争议焦点是与Robinhood的股票代币化上市问题。 结论:投资者应关注半导体板块持续走弱与印尼政治风险的外溢效应,同时对代币化股票等新兴叙事保持审慎跟踪。

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around 108, the 10 year below 5.1 north of 5% around 5.07, 5.09. The Dixie below 102 in the 101 and high-change context. The big winners on Friday while the market got slaughtered were in the energy sector across the energy space. The losers, the socks was off. The Philadelphia semiconductor index was off. 3.8% on Friday. That was the eighth straight down session. The longest losing streak for the socks since 2008 micron Intel AMD all down 6% or so core weave after some relief on Thursday. The head fake it was down 12% on Friday giving it a total of 25% loss on the week last week. We will talk about core weave. It was the focus of the all in podcast this past week and I think it was a good discussion about it. Good discussion about structure that will have to talk about. But in addition to core we've losing 25% on the week. The huge impact on the huge impact on the Uli Packard enterprise lost 25% last week. So did Sienna, so did coherent, so did Lumendom. So it was a very tough week. The big international story away from Europe. GDP, but Indonesia. Dave Nukowski is getting slaughtered reason for that is the exclusion potentially of Indonesia from the MSCI. It's from the MSEI EM index. So to go back on our comments about the MSCI and strategy and meta plan it will maybe it is more consequential than my comments. Let it to be on Friday the Jakarta composite was down 11.5%. That's the index. That's the steepest one day drops since 1998. And now down today another 5% plus percent to a six year low. So go ahead Eric, I assume on the point of Indonesia. Yes, exactly good morning everybody. And the reason why Indonesia is having this right now is because of lack of confidence in the government and how it's running its financial markets. And this is giving the international community more doubts about the validity of the stock market, how much you can trust it. And of course, trust issue in the stock market is a big deal. And that's why you see it collapse 11% and the threat of removing it from the index. This is this happened since the new president came in I think it was last year, probably both subyanto. And the previous one which was a very popular one. But due to politics and when you need to change every X number of years, the president. So this one came to power with an alliance that they made with the son of the previous president who name was Jacoby. A lot of 30 politics going there, but it is what it is. And this is what leads the financial market to be a difficulty. This has ripple effects. And I think it's a very important thing to mention that because this is rarely mentioned at a discussion with it just yesterday with some people in Singapore. The biggest one direct investor in Indonesia is Singapore. The massacke, not totally has a lot of holdings in Indonesia. Now sometimes they own the factories directly, sometimes they own through the stock market, but they're getting hit by that as well. So this something you should keep on your radar if Indonesia would continue to suffer more back to you David. And it's going to be a very complex there again. We'll continue to keep a small eye on it because I assume the majority of folks in the audience don't have Indonesia on their radar screen on a daily basis. To wrap around the international storyline. China reported third quarter GDP, which was better than expected stock market didn't do anything on the back of that as a matter of fact, the CSI 300 is down 10 weeks in a row over in China. The European unrest we will certainly talk about throughout France, Belgium, Italy, Portugal, and so forth. Zelensky coming out and saying that he is being armed twisted to get to a resolution on the war. I don't know if we won't discuss all the stuff about starlink going down and so on. Just I don't think it's a productive use of our time here. And then in Canada, once again, the province of Alberta, given the opportunity to secede from Canada and 70% are opting to seemingly impoles seemingly to remain. But today, they will vote. It is a non binding vote today, but we'll see what the outcome is when we were on the show on Friday, Apple, to Rob Nund's, Shigrin had sold out of its duo. Now, there is 100 plus day wait for a duo kicked all the way out. I think till January. But if you ordered it on time, you will get it on October 23rd. And to be expected across France, financials are getting wrecked. The MP party, the society general, credit, agriculture, all of them are in a bit of a tough spot selling off today. I'll go to Carlo on the crypto and then come back. But Bitcoin, even though it had a tough weekend, along with all of the, I guess, beating up that happened in tech on Wednesday. And then again on Friday, recovered quite nicely into this morning. And the OKX ice program for the tokenized stocks just want to update you. There are nine issuers that have opted out. The fight right now is with Robin Hood apparently over Robin Hood's stock being listed and tokenized on the OKX ice platform. As if Robin Hood is not tokenizing their own stocks on their own platform. But there you go. That's the world we live in right now. Go ahead. Carlo, good morning. Welcome to you. Everyone. So yeah, Vlad at Robin Hood is not only walking the walk, but he's talking the talk. And I think tokenized derivatives of stocks came front and center Saturday night, David, because we saw a flash crash after traditional markets closed. Both Sandisk and micron shares continued to trade in the derivative tokenized stock sector. And there was a burst of aggressive selling that hit sand disk perpetuals on finance on Saturday, which some have characterized as black Saturday within seconds. And permeated through hyper liquids, perpetuals, chain and roughly 10 addresses open fresh shorts across sand disk, the S O X L, the micron and related chip contracts under two seconds. There was a massive liquidation. The liquidation was between 21 22 and 21 32 hours. So a 10 minute window, 51.6 million in leveraged chip stock positions were forced closed, roughly 38 million of that came from longs. And the S O X L alone accounted for about 12.7. So what this illustrates is and interestingly enough, Matt Hogan over at bitwise articulated this beautifully. So basically the fact that markets are now going 24 7 and weekend trading is putting traders in an interesting position. He put it simply the stock market doesn't actually close anymore. Some people just close their eyes over the weekend. And what we witnessed, which some are calling a black Saturday event shows us what can happen when the rest of the market takes off for the weekend. The perpetual derivatives continue to trade over tokenized stocks. There was a recovery as of Monday morning. It looks like a lot of this has recovered. And there was a lot of anticipation that today was going to be a black Monday market event unclear whether that's going to happen or not. What's also unclear about the Saturday news is there wasn't apparently any particular news, any announcement about a total breakup in an AI IPO or any sort of contagion effect that triggered this, but nevertheless we see what happens when markets move on chain. And when they move 24 7 you are right. The interesting story is that although the New York Stock Exchange has decided to align with OK X a lot of companies are lining up and objecting broad calm Verizon United Health core weave and others have formally objected to having tokenized versions of their shares trade on OK. I see which is the OK and New York Stock Exchange joint venture that plans to bring a crypto centric blockchain tokenize exchange to the New York Stock Exchange over select stocks. These stocks are objecting they have every right to do so, but I don't think it stops this train. And then the interesting news Elon is promising to give one share of SpaceX to every kid from his personal holdings. Oh, we're going to get. Yeah, that's fascinating. There is a lot to talk about. Absolutely. I'm going to kick it back to you David, but that's pretty much what happened in crypto land this weekend. I think things are recovering. And I think we continue to see the resilience. And frankly, I think I think crypto is responding better to what's happening right now than the stock exchange markets are. So do with that what you will. I would just like to formally say that I identify as an American child. Just a bit on this thing Rob, we'll thank you David. We'll get the share to you. No problem. And so Carlo on your point and I think the audience should pay attention to the flash club crash the black Saturday. If you think that the road between here and wherever we're going to get to is going to be without bumps, you're crazy. For those companies that have a choice to be on the OKX ice. Look, I understand. You know, the first thing that you do is you bring it to your board of directors after you kind of figure out a position between you, your CEO, CFO chief legal officer, maybe head of investor relations. Then you go to your board. Your board is going to say nine out of 10 times. Why should we be the guinea pig on this? I mean, we manage a massive company. 10s if not hundreds of billions dollars of market cap. Why do we need to be the first folks into this new realm and not know what might happen. Allah blacks at it. And so I think most boards will be conservative to your point, Carlo, the technology is without flaw. I think this is about humans. And I will add to that, Igentic AI. And that's really where things start to get a little bit difficult. I heard an interview with one of the people in charge of regulation for the London Stock Exchange and how they're thinking about agentic AI and trading and 24, 7 trading and leverage and executing thousands, if not tens of thousands of orders inside of very small windows of time. And the only way to fight technology is with technology. And I don't mean it's a fight in terms of winter and loser. But there's no way human being is going to be on the other side of the thousands or tens of thousands of line items of trades and going to be able to patch something. And so it's going to be it's a race. I mean the people that are in the technology world appreciate that this is absolutely a race. It's a race on both sides. Someone's going to make a lot of money. Other people are going to lose money. And they're a policeman in the middle that that is their job. They police. They have to also use technology in order to police. And I think again, we're definitely getting there without a doubt. And faster, I think than anybody can imagine. And David, I think it's worth adding to that the problem is the weekends are still a low liquidity period. So there's just not enough liquidity in the markets. And when these things get liquidated, there aren't buyers and sellers. There are counter parties, which is the

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