🛢️ $111; Elice IPO🤮; $SPCX $NFLX coming; OpenAI $1.4T; Nscale/Anthropic

beats and But even though the strength is there in terms of both earnings came in 25 cents higher than expected a 225 as opposed to dollars orders orders Of 19 billion up 49% and they raised guidance again nevertheless Market is pricing in somewhat of a 2027 Aftermarket slowdown and a hundred eleven dollar oil is not helping so the stock is not Stock is not reacting particularly strong Was what what is incredibly weak this morning as general loaders which did not miss by any stretch Both on earnings and on revenue exceeded expectations But the commodity inflation was at the high end of the of the spectrum And And they announced a new 20 billion dollar buyback and still The stock is down 6% Remarket on the other side of that is RTX or what used to be Raytheon beat and arrays beat handily both on earnings And on revenue much more on earnings and on revenue um and Continues as with everything else in the defense sector to yield good results in that defense sector you can also now throw 3m Which has become Part of the defense slash data center component Business Providing optical connect connectivity To data centers. I thought it was I thought it was the new research that showed that if you stick a post it note Right over a might little mini tank window it pretty much disables the tank if if I had to pick anybody That was going to say something about post it's When it got to 3m. It's Justin. We all know that thank god for Justin I'm happy you're here. We're going to get to you Because apple has another event next week already And maybe this is the pace that we have to start to expect Can roll out of products out of apple. Why don't I just throw it out there now October 28th um in LA It's called the pro and tell event Riffon show and so I'm sorry subtle subtle exactly Pro and tell and the the expectation is is that the MacBook Pro Will get a touch screen which has been um every other laptop manufacturer in the world has touch screen devices on their laptops But apple has resisted but now is finally succumbing What that means for their tablet Line versus their laptop line who knows we'll talk about it in a little bit Um, let me just get through some more morning stuff um So yeah front and center oil today Um, I'm just going to go ahead and take the thunder away from tomorrow for a second so that you all go ahead and Make sure to tune in tomorrow meta After the close tomorrow Tesla after the close tomorrow, but today You've got space X you've got Netflix You've got united airlines Chubb capital one Those are all after the close today Uh, there'll be a lot to discuss on those tomorrow. Maybe we'll discuss a little bit of it As a preview today, but certainly We will expect just in to be here on all things musk related for the next two days SpaceX and tesla And everybody else to join in on especially on us on everything oil jet fuel energy related um Okay, the I'm sorry and I know I've apologized many times and I will continue to apologize regarding the airspace that we give to AI and everything related there to um, neoclads chips energy and so forth, but it is um, the area that not only is incredibly um, the the focus of so many portfolios in terms of the majority of holdings, but it is also the storyline that is moving the fastest changes daily and pretty much give a lot of sentiment to the market overall um, so We had a couple things overnight Uh, we had an IPO over in Korea that went awful Like beyond awful awful Like down 32% on the IPO awful uh, the name of the company is Elise or I think I'm pronouncing it the proper way um and We need to talk about that because it's chilling The entire neoclads market today at the same time We had a deal announced by end scale which we talked about yesterday losing a client In Microsoft will now it's gained a client in Anthropic uh, we also have um Open AI raising money at a $1.4 trillion valuation And so of course who am I going to go to first on all this It's going to be branded branded if you need me to fill in A bunch of the details on Elise Let me know, but otherwise the mic is yours my friend Yeah, thanks. Yeah, I would love for you to fill in some of the details on Elise I mean it was brutal and um, I gotta be honest. I mean, I'm still struggling to understand um What is going on with these data center companies? I mean that was that was absolutely brutal um in Korea overnight if you want to fill in the details please. I think what was it down 30% um, just pretty pretty crazy numbers and Unfortunately, it seems like the people that got hurt the most were retail investors Who poured some significant amounts of money into it But yeah, please go ahead and fill in the details there Yeah, um, okay, so Here's where we begin the company is quite small um small to the point where it's not listed on the cost fee which is the broad South Korean index that we talk about when we talk about Samsung and that's khanics. It was listed on the junior exchange over in Korea uh called the cost back I think is what it's called uh an ode to The nasdaq here in the United States or the cause dac cause dac an ode to the nasdaq here in the United States um full year revenue for 2025 30 million first 30 million dollars translated um from uh the Korean currency and then uh first half of the year in 2026 25 million of revenue so clearly growing up to 100% year over year Even that they do have profit uh 7.7 million dollars 30% operating margin um you need to know That as as far as cause dac goes ipOs The average cause dac ipO trades up 127% on the day So if you're a Korean Gunslinger, maverick, trader, whatever, chaser You know just just because of historical patterns you're you're going after this ipO The problem with this ipO um other than being in a sector that is currently under tremendous pressure um around the world Is pursuing to their ipO filing A single Korean government agency is 66% of the first half revenue of the country company now listen We spoke yesterday about the concentration um that every um Neo cloud and you know data center provider Has with respect to customers and clearly you want the biggest and best because that's really what you're going to be Benchmarked off of not necessarily your own earnings The real killer here though was That there was no lockup here um 68.7% of the institutional shares had no lockup So There was just a flood Of sell this wasn't managed well, right? I mean at the end of the day The technicals in some cases especially if the storyline or the clouds Around your story are gathering The technicals can kill you And so that was the case here I liken it I guess to the ipO that we never saw In terms of aura the ring right the aura ring would have been a similar ipo experience because the large second largest shareholder Was going to entirely sell their investment they were going to be clean After the ipO for whatever reason right and that was the that was a construct of the ipO and the ipO was pulled I guess because it wasn't a rar rar rar enough market to essentially overlook That very fundamental flaw well here the same thing fundamental flaw no lockup You don't do an ai related ipO and essentially unload the entire flow to the company on the market on day one Especially if things aren't going so well in the sector in the last couple days So that's what we ended up with and I you know look You can spend this either way. I'm not going to spend this one where the the other right it could be an anomaly It's a really small company on a secondary index in the Korean stock market where you know all this liquidity came to the market all at once And they've got one customer that makes up 66% and who knows if the Korean government is in this to support the stock or in this To really service you know get the services of the company. I have no idea And so you could look at it incredibly skeptically on its own and therefore it shouldn't have any relation to the rest of the sector or no At the end of the day maybe a lot of these folks that own data center Stock are really Too full They're too scared. They're too concentrated and they're going to continue to dump whether that stock is listed On the Cosdack or the Nasdaq or any other exchange around the world They will continue to sell down this risk. I don't really know the answer, but that's kind of two sides of the coin a lot of your hand good morning My dear friend If people only use their eyes in ears and actually pay attention to the price points Of sectors and indices and their timing and their chronological order Do you really think it was a coincidence that within a span of 30 days We saw semis peak the sk Heinix IPO hit and space x IPO also hit and that and the s and the sk Heinix Did almost perfectly marked the top it was actually right at the beginning of that decline and we're into that decline of of the Of the of the sabbic conductors and as you call them David a towel that the hardware sector And that's the sector that got hit and when you start seeing the champs The champs are those companies that monopolize the indices and or in the top 10 and you see the the the broad comms of the world just just get hit And you see some of the chip equipment. I mean chip equipment companies Are precursors because they create the the equipment a sml creates a lithographic equipment that are used for for for Our lithographic equipment that's are used for semiconductors And if you look at there even that stock at one point here was down I think over 20% so when the champs are down 20% you know there's a serious problem Well, you know that tier two and tier three junk Again, I hate to call it junk. I know it's an exciting sector and then in the junk category and the and the spear of risk are those optical net workers which are like impossible to to to trade long or short at this point Same thing or as I call the photonics AI plays Then you have the the semis. I mean, you know, just look at what's happening what is South Korea's economy half the economy is all electronics the half the set half the whole stock market is just two stocks So I'm just I don't have to read the tea leaves the tea leaves have a megaphone and and and and and look like 10 trump rallies all at once Give me a break It's obvious that hardware is coming into some serious trouble I have to hand it to the bond guys that I know well. I mean, I know a few others more than I do David but