Someday Bitcoin will find you

the odds are right now 92% that they will raise raise. So if you have a contrary opinion, you can get better than 10 to 1 odds against it. So, you know, I mean, a lot of puncher and others who have said that the Fed won't raise, but the Fed's going to raise. The Bank of England probably will also raise tomorrow, I think, and Japan will also raise on Friday. So we've got a bunch of rate hikes happening. And, you know, I think you can go back to this, the Scott Besent, you know, I'm the market now. And you really, he really does not look very good at all. I mean, we are essentially at 5% on the 10-year note right now. And, you know, the UK guilt is at 5.38%. This five years ago was at 0.75%. So just, I mean, the carnage in these bonds is just unbelievable. Hey, O'Hare, how's it going? So, yeah, so I'm watching the bonds get obliterated, basically. I mean, we're going to cross 5% today, probably. Yeah, I mean, that's the main thing I'm focused on. Oh, Hey, what are you thinking on these bonds? Besent does not seem to be in command of the situation. It's all I can say. Well, Besent screwed up by telegraphing to the market, what he plans on doing. So when you lay out the ground, I mean, that's the probably it's like playing poker with a bunch of people at the table and your cards are face up, you know, what do you think they're going to do? They're going to take advantage of it. Well, that seems to be Trump's kind of art of the deal too, and it does not seem to work. Like he's like, yeah, this war is going to end next Thursday. Like, okay. And then on Thursday, it doesn't end, and he looks like an idiot. Look at what happened today. We had a nice little rally based on exactly that, right? I mean, they came out and said again, oh, we have an agreement. Iran wants to come to the table. I mean, it's just, you know, it's at this point, if anybody believes it, they're idiots. I mean, what can you believe anymore? It's all just, you know, just a bunch of nonsense, you know, moral swation to the max. How about his, his scorched shirt mornings on the AI? What do you think of that? He loves AI, loves data centers. They're great. Wonderful. It's only scorched shirt that you don't have a genius president, is that what he said? He said, but we've got lots of them. Exactly. Yeah. Yeah. He said, oh, I just can't. When I listen to this friend, I, it's just, you can't, you know, it's just, it's so ridiculous. You know, it's, you know, what it kind of reminds me of like old British sitcoms on PBS when I was growing up, like faulty towers. That's what I'm, yeah. It's kind of what's going on with the administration. It's so ridiculously retarded and stupid. It's hilarious. And it's funny and sad all at the same time. You know, when Bessent came in, I sort of thought Bessent was going to be the adult in the room, but, I think that's what everybody thought. Yeah. Yeah. When you get a washed up guy like him, and I have to say, you know, let's be honest here, he was not, hold on. Let's be honest. He wasn't like a successful, you know, hedge fund manager. I mean, he asked, he made some money. There are a lot of hedge fund managers that make a lot of money that don't do anything for their clients or their investors, right? I mean, I think somebody posted something that was really interesting. A quote from Mark. What's his name from? Oh, shit. I'm off the go down to my, I'm driving right now. I'll look at my, I repost it. Deep value guy. Anyway, he basically said that, you know, hold on a second. This is the problem driving and talking at the same time here. You know, Bessent is the epitome of what he was saying here. And I can't remember the exact quote, but, you know, he was a guy that was, you know, kind of fell into it a little bit, got a job with, with, you know, with Druckermiller and, you know, and, hold on a second. Mark Mobyus? No, it was a Mobyus. No, Soros, right? Quantum. And, you know, and then everybody gives him credit for, you know, the, the British pound fiasco where... He had nothing to do with it, but he had nothing to do with it, but the point is that every time that Scott Bessent was brought up before he joined the administration, everybody gave him the, you know, the street cred for that, you know, so again, I think, you know, this guy's been failing upwards his entire career. And when you get a guy that works at a hedge fund starts his own, and, you know, charges two and 20, you don't have to, you know, make money for customers to make money for yourself, you know, it only takes a year or two of good, you know, of luck to make a... My, uh, my, uh, my experiences, yeah, you, you have three good years and that's it. You're done. You know what I mean? Oh yeah, that's exactly what he did. Yeah. Yeah, you get lucky for three times in a row, you leverage off on somebody else's dime and... Well, you, I don't even think you need to get lucky three times in a row. I think once or twice is good enough anymore. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, exactly. You, you have a really good year, you, you raise a bunch more money, you have another good year, and then you're done. That's it. Which is kind of what, my ex boss, not matter whether it is a long-term couple now. Well, John Murray, whether it was a classic example, yeah, yeah, LTCM, yeah. I mean, he had a lot of experience with Solomon, but as a hedge fund, LTCM was in business. I think for four years, I can't remember exactly, but it was, it was... That's, that's stellar returns based on, you know, a really, you know, interesting, you know, kind of a strategy that took a lot of leverage and, uh, and ended up blowing themselves up using it. So, but in the meantime, he made a fortune. He, and it's, you know, his LPs, or his GPs anyway. Yeah. His LPs didn't make money. Well, he almost blew up the entire world financial system, but yeah, other than that. Which is kind of crazy when you think about it, because that was only a four billion dollar blow-up. You have to remember that it wasn't really that big of a blow-up. Yeah, it tells you how, man, how much financial life the world has gotten since then, right? It's, it's incredible. It really is incredible. I mean, the Bank of New York had to get involved in that bailout, and today four billion is nothing. I mean, four billion dollars. I mean, shit, there are shit codes that are losing four billion dollars. So, what do you think, uh, you think the Fed's gonna hike? What do you think? They will, Ryan. You know, I don't think the Fed's gonna hike. You don't, okay? I don't. It's really, you know, it's interesting because if I go on Twitter, I would say half of the people or, I would say the majority of people do not think they're gonna hike on Twitter. And yet the Fedwatch tool odds are 10 to 1. You know what I mean? Pretty amazing. And they got in work. They got, you know, earn favorable hike. So, 92.4% versus 7.6%. Kind of unbelievable. And the odds are 44% that we go a second hike afterwards. So, we'll go all the way up to 4% interest rates based on the betting odds, which is interesting. I do feel like that, and I put a little mini essay at your AI assistant, of course. But, um, I put out a little essay about, you know, 2032, the chickens are, the hands are coming to roost in 2032, I think. Man, if this, this deficit, we're gonna be at a $3 trillion interest payment a year, in 2032. Can you imagine that? Yeah, oh, sorry. I had to be myself. I don't think they're gonna hike because, uh, I mean, the market's already done a lot of the heavy lifting form. Uh, I talked to Joe about this last night, actually, in the case. But he doesn't think they're gonna make a force. Uh, you know, I've been up to the, in that race are going high. I'm gonna stay on for long. That was happened over the last couple of years. Uh, you think they're off the race rates? That's don't think this thing. I think they're gonna wait. Right? I bet. You know, I bet. I bet. If I'm right, you don't race, then they're not. You can talk to your, uh, you're, you're crackling in and out. Um, you may have to kind of retake this from a time where you're not in the base one somewhere. Um, Bitcoin ball. How's it going? Going in, seeing by Bitcoin, ball, way Omar, Benny, turning in. Hey guys. Anyway, I don't know if you could hear me, but, um, I can hear you a little bit, then you broke up. Yeah. Now again, yeah, I was just saying, if they can't, if they don't raise rates this week, then they're not going to raise until after the midterms. Um, and I don't think they're going to raise this week because I just think there's so much pressure on the Fed on the part of the, uh, administration that I just, I just don't think they're, they have it in them to raise. I mean, besides, if they raise, they're going to raise 25 bips, which, if you think about it, the 25 bips isn't really going to do anything anyway. So it's symbolic. It's basically, it's symbolic. It's symbolic. Yeah. And that's why I think they're going to do it because I do think, but here's, but, but then you got to play this out. If they raised 25 bips, just to send a message that, hey, we're willing to raise rates, then all of a sudden, we're back into a rate hiking regime, uh, because that's what the market's going to start to price in. So the minute you raise rates once, you're probably likely to raise rates six, you know, uh, over the next, say, you know, four or five meetings. I think that's generally how it works. If they raise rates, they're unlikely to cut rates immediately. In other words, you know, the administration wants them and push is pushing them to cut rates. If they raise rates, that's off the table. The, the cutting rates is off the table at that point. If they say, if they stay and do nothing, then it leaves the door open for either scenario to play out a rate increase or a rate cut. You follow? So that's why I don't think they're going to, they're going to do anything this week. I just don't, I think they're going to stay pat here, even though it's being priced in at the moment. Bull, what do you think? Um, I don't think they're going to raise them either. I'm surprised I agree with all of here, but I don't think they're, I think I feel like, you know, this whole time he's been one, uh, you know, Trump and one of lower rates. And, uh, you know, he, now, now they're going to raise them out of nowhere. Like it's, uh, I don't know. I just feel like, I think if they don't raise rates, the 10 years of sell off even more, but I think if they do raise rates, the 10 years have stopped going up. And I do think they're more focused on the 10 years of the, uh, the five months at this point. I mean, they can tolerate a little bit more pain on the, you know, uh, like I said, I just think if you, if you game it out though, like I said, like, here's the thing, if they raise rates, in other words, you know, you can't go from a 25 basis point hikes to then in a, in a matter of weeks or a month or two, go to that's just that's, that's, that's, that's, that's the wrong thing to do. And I think everybody agrees with that. I think everybody will agree with that. They administration and the Fed, everybody involved with that. You can't be raising rates in the cutting. Well, the, the, the panel is, is I'm saying we, we're going up. Oh, here I'm big point saying we're going to stay prepared. What about clarity acts? Is that passing? Well, I, that's another thing. I, I think it's going to be very hard for the clarity act. Look, tomorrow they're just going to vote on whether or not to proceed to, to, to kind of, you know, uh, debate about it. That's what tomorrow's, you know, voted. Yeah, but I think at least that's going to go through. I think I think that's likely to go through. It's not a, it's not a done deal yet. We'll have to see. But, you know, they're still arguing over whether or not, you know, they agree with the proposals by the, by the Republicans, by the Magas about, you know, what the Trump administration, what Trump and his family can do with their, with their crypto holding. So that's number one. Number two, you know, uh,