As Rates Reprice, Which Holds Up Better: AI Stocks or BTC?

So I think since Kevin Wars to go over the stands might have changed. If you look at David Persisting and who's benefiting or who's positioning for which type of trades, we've seen a few very large ones last week, a few billion dollars in national like crazy size and that would be a 70-72 cold spread. So that means that people are positioning for upside to both 70 but capping the upside at 72 which essentially means that is not unlimited upside. So even though people might be bullish, the bullishness has a gap or people are willing to cap it, protecting them from downside. And that's the sense what we've seen all year round. So the view is favoring puts as in that means that implied volatility for puts or the premium people willing to pay for protection is higher than the premium going to pay for upside. A lot of focus of the market is still protecting downside risk. And even though there is momentum for more bullishness, clarity act, war, slash rate hikes, the it's not unlimited upside as people positioned before. If you look at the Trump just ETF narrative that was clearly higher up sides, people were looking at 100K and beyond and wanted to take the full benefit of that move. And what you're seeing now is that people are focusing on much smaller moves and paying for downside protection. Thank you. Thank you. Look, yeah, definitely. I think first and narrative is changing and also there's no doubt that the international landscape today is more complicated than last year, of course. And the market focus is shifting. So as you said, like more people are more willing to protect the downside protection and shift. So yeah, thank you very much for your comments on this question. So now I'm really keen to listen to Jay Wang for your comments on this question. Oh, yeah, thank you. I mean, like June has been one of the worst month for Bitcoin. It was down 20%. It was like the worst month, I think in the last four years since 2022. And in this kind of a drop, I think a lot of like even the midterm players has thrown in the towel. And people have turned very bearish as you can see in the like fear kind of index has been deteriorated as well. But overall, I think we've found some kind of a bottom here. And then we have been bouncing even though there has been meaningful news. Of course, there is some kind of a hope about clarity act to pass before the seven August kind of a Congress recess. But at the moment, as you mentioned, as you mentioned, the CPI and PPF finally coming off lower has been a good relief. I mean, it has been good relief for Bitcoin, but also in the kind of a risk, risk asset in general. But if you look at like the CPI and this inflation data coming off have reduced the probability of a Fed hike in the near term, like July, for example, but it didn't really erase totally, right? I mean, it still has market is pricing almost full hike for the rest of the year. And if you think about that starting point compared to let's say market pricing rate cut in the beginning of the year, we were in the environment where Bitcoin has a bit of a capriculation. People have reduced positions. Some people actually running short, maybe especially in the crypto equity space. And we have this rate high still priced in. So we'll see, I mean, like who knows the inflation trajectory. But if there is, and also mindful that we're walking into this midterm in US, where if I put myself in Fed shoes, I would rather be, you know, find a pathway to stay whole, not to just get into politics. So I mean, if as long as the data collaborates with me, I would rather be on hold. And if that's the case, I think there's a chance that the rate hike priced in for the rest of the year can come off. And that could be benefiting Bitcoin in general or risk asset in general. So my view here is that we've seen at least a short term kind of a bottom. And as Luke mentioned, maybe the top side could be quite limited. I see that like 72 K has been the 200 day moving average that has been well observed in the last resistance as well. So it makes sense. Maybe we have a breather as 72 K. But once it breaks, I think you'll find that not many people own Bitcoin anymore, right? There have been like reduced they have like turned flat, they have moved the cold wallet, etc. So I think there could be a real formal if we break above 72 K. And we can be having a higher cut of up move towards the end of the year. Okay, thank you. Thank you, Jay, one. I think that's a very promising insight. So definitely will look up to the meat terms and maybe stay hold. But also like one side to all of the audience today, please do your own research. This is a very personal sharing. This doesn't hold any financial advisory. So yeah, as we just talk about the market landscape. Now I think we have to move into the question about Bitcoin. So Bitcoin has often been described as a digital gold or as an inflation hatch. But in recent cycles like BTC has also shown strong sensitivity to interest rates and liquidity conditions. So how should we think about BTC in today's market? Maybe for this question, let's go from Jay one. Yeah, hi, Bitcoin, I think has a lot of aspect to it. But if you just look at the recent price behavior, I think it's more of a high beta liquidity asset. I mean, even gold, for example, I mean, gold should go higher if there's a Iran or actually went lower together with silver. So it is there is definitely a liquidity phenomenon where if let's say Fed is easing Fed rate, high price out, then both gold and Bitcoin can go higher along with the, I guess, US stocks. But when there is liquidity condition tightening, I think all these kind of a sufferer. So you know, it doesn't mean that Bitcoin will forever be have this qualities. But for now, I think it is more acting as a liquidity asset. Okay, thank you. Thank you. That's very short and sweet. I think definitely Bitcoin today we see a very mixed aspect to it. So yeah, now let's welcome look to give us some insights on the BTC. Yeah, my view is the same. So I think the it's in the past, or perhaps when I started working for the narrative in the early days was the inflation hatch, the war hatch and the digital gold and that story has changed over the years. And I think since a few years, it's just a risk asset. And once they as well Bitcoin is sold equally or even faster. So currently there's hardly any or negative correlation with Bitcoin. And it's not seen as a safe haven at all. The story has also changed over the years. There is no wrong with the currency of the future. I think, although some people still believe that, but it's more an investment asset. Where in the past it was completely different story. So today it's it's it trades the same as space X the same as AI stocks the same as whatever nest deck. And when the higher beta stocks and when things happen like more and like unexpected events, Bitcoin is the first to be sold instead of bought like gold. So that's what we're seeing today. And I don't see that changing anytime soon. Thank you. Thank you. Look. Yeah, I think definitely from the past cycles, we definitely see big coins narrative has been changing from time to time. Sometimes it's digital gold, but now it's more like a risk asset, but maybe in the future will change to another narrative or it will change to something else. But yeah. In the market like driven by the rate uncertainty and also and also assets volatility. I think also we have been mentioned a little bit about the a stocks. So can we like dive deeper into this topic. So how can trader express a view on whether like a stocks or BTC will be more resilient in current market situation. And also like on top of that, how can options help trader capture the opportunity while managing the downside risk. So for this question, let's welcome look to give us some answers. Sure. I think this is a good environment for options rather than spots. I think the AI stocks versus, for example, Bitcoin. The question doesn't have a clean answer right now. The correlation between the two keeps flipping, depending on the week. We look at the last week since the space excellence you've seen different correlations. There's plenty of stories out there about AI and the potential corrections, etc. And the market is unstable like this. You don't want to clean directional bet. You want to structure that phase over the relationship itself and capture downsides. So did the trade I mentioned to you before. That's essentially the same as you should approach any investment, I think in the risk asset at the moment where there's no clear direction. Clearly, you don't see the narratives like the like mentioned before the term story, the story, etc. In an absence of that clear story now. You need, you need to avoid just naked calls. You need structures. So like the 70 72 K spread, you can trade that longer term. And obviously you can play around to the strikes. Depending on the expiry pick, but you need to look at the opposite scenario as well. If clarity act feels if a few of those scenarios don't pan out, the impact will be severe. And the focus will be on the negative side. So I think that's that should be the clear message today. Don't just by plain upside opportunities, but look at downsides as well. Yeah, thank you. Thank you. Look for your answer for this question. Yeah, so I think let's just welcome J want to give us some comments on this. Yeah, I'll take an anti consensus view and actually say BTC is kind of a better location than AI stocks. I mean, like two things, right? I mean, if you look at positioning, AI stocks is at or very close to max long while BTC I think is one of the lowest long in the recent history, right? Second, if you look just like at the location or the valuation, AI stocks is very full or very rich in terms of valuation while BTC is quite quite low and off like 50% from the last third quarter high. So, you know, from here, if you think about resilience, which means maybe the downside kind of a how to endure the downside. I think BTC will do better on the downside. But also on the top side, I think with the help of clarity act and etc. I think it could have or BTC related equity could have a better performance than AI stocks that that's my personal view. So on options, I totally agree with the look in the sense that recently market makers, etc. have been saying that all of all is low, nothing going on, nothing to do. But actually, this is the exact time that you should put options because you know, this is when the ball is low, you can express review cheaply in a good kind of a risk reward on the direction that you want to express. So for example, I mean, right now the ball has bounced back a bit, but until recently I think like short data like end of July 72 71 K calls, etc. We're giving you like one to four kind of a payout. That's kind of the beauty of options where when you're wrong, you lose one, when you're right, you make four. So I think the low ball environment is exactly the time you should trade more options, not less options. Yeah, that's one addition. I fully agree with you on the AI's version BTC side. So I think if you look at the listings in the US and the upcoming ones, you will be indeed entering a very high priced trade where you can wonder what the upside is. Upside is and if you look at BTC in comparison, you know what the potential of such could be because we've seen it already. It's not a crazy expectation that BTC at some point could reach 100 K because we've seen it. And for those AI stocks to double in price that would make them even more crazier into the valuation, which is perhaps less likely scenario. So I think if that's personally that's purely my personal opinion, if I were to allocate, I would allocate more to BTC than AI, but the my message was, if you do it, please look at the downside as well. So if you try to position for potential upside, instead of previous days, the story is less clear. And that could be adverse effects as well, significantly impacting price of Bitcoin or whatever the underlying S and might be. So please look at the downside as well. Yep. Thank you. Thank you. Look, I really loving this discussion over here because during the past two spaces discussion, we focus very much on AI and also AI stock. Not only because