Crappy Advice with Billy & Tiff - brought to you by @Polymarket

Shibetoshi Nakamoto 订阅播客 1h 17m 0 次下载 收录于 2026-10-02 #热门

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比特币持有者讨论Polymarket交易者对伊尔汗·奥马尔遇袭事件、政府关门风险和金银暴涨的概率定价,并对比了比特币、白银与黄金的市值规模。 - Polymarket交易者仅给出约3%的概率认为伊尔汗·奥马尔遇袭事件是策划的,尽管X上有大量声称造假的帖子。 - 政府关门概率被定价为约72%,国会因国土安全部拨款陷入僵局,周五前若无协议政府将关门。 - 去年美国政府曾经历史上最长的43天关门,但主播表示对个人生活几乎没有实质影响。 - Polymarket显示白银在本月底前触及120美元的概率为45%,当前价格约117美元,黄金也创下历史新高(约5400美元)。 - 比特币市值约1.78万亿美元,英伟达市值约4.5万亿美元,白银市值约6万亿美元,黄金约37万亿美元。 - 由于黄金和白银市值基数极大,其价格上涨20%意味着数万亿美元级别的市值变动。 - 地球核心据称含有约1.6万亿吨黄金,但开采不现实。 与其在社交媒体上凭感觉发帖,不如用真金白银的预测市场来检验自己的判断。

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I don't know if you've seen this, but I've seen a ton of ex accounts insist that this incident had to be staged. And like, I'm obviously not a fan of Ilhan Omar. I'm not here to defend her, but I also think a lot of accounts probably just wanna post hot takes for engagement. So, like, yeah. I heard it was Apple cider vinegar, but I've also seen like tons of pictures of them together and then like these community notes are like, this is AI. So I, you know, it's like really hard to know. They're calling the attacker, they're calling this event like with Jesse Smollett, 2.0 or whatever. Yeah, I'm seeing a ton of stuff about this and I'm seeing like, apparently he has liberal kids. I don't know what exactly is going on, but like, I don't know. Instead of just reading headlines, I was like, okay, let's look on Paulie Morgan, see what traders are saying about this. And on Paulie Morgan, traders are only pricing about a 3% chance that the incident was staged. So, I mean, it looks like there's a lot of noise on ex. Like people asserting it's all fake, but then. Yeah, it's like 98%. Yeah. Exactly. Exactly me too. It's like my whole feed. So yeah, I guess it's just sort of like, I don't know, people are allowed on ex, but it's like, are you willing to put your money where you're mouth is? Are you willing to bet on your online claim? So I don't know. I think that Paulie Morgan is actually kind of useful for looking at stuff. It's like stories like this. Yeah, I guess we'll see. I guess we'll see, I guess we'll see. And I mean, and there's also a bunch of news about a potential government shutdown coming up. Right now, Paulie Morgan's pricing it at around a 72% chance. So the government shuts down on Saturday. And apparently Congress is deadlocked over DHS funding. And if they don't reach a deal by Friday night, we get a government shutdown. Oh, I wonder why. I wonder if the government shutdown is just like, they don't do anything anyway. Like how they determine what. It's like that's 100% right? That the government isn't accomplishing anything good for it. I don't. Like last year we had apparently the longest government shutdown in US history for 43 days. And I'm like, I don't know if it meaningfully impacted my life at all. Did it impact your life, Billy? I don't know. I made a lot of post complaining. That was impact. Maybe we made more money on engagement on our posts complaining about the government shutdown. Yeah, maybe we should want to shut down. I don't know. OK, so we're rooting for another one. I don't know. I just wish we had a competent government, but I don't want to waste too much time complaining about the government in our spaces. Yeah, I feel you. I feel you. Well, apparently it's 72% chance. So we'll see. We only got a couple days to wait. And then I mean, also another trending topic, our last one is that gold and silver prices are skyrocketing right now, which I mean, as a Bitcoin holder has been very, very distressing to watch. But polyamarket traders, apparently, a 45%, there's a 45% chance on polyamarket that silver hits $120 by the end of the month. Well, what is it now? Or actually? I think the last I checked it was 117, so very close. And the month is only a couple days away. I saw gold actually hidden all time. I have 5400. OK, I have some facts about this. So I'm going to give you a pop quiz. Oh, God. I'm going to fuck this up. Yeah, that's fine. I would fuck this up because if I have the notes in front of me. But all right, you're just going to make me look stupid. What's the market cap to Bitcoin? Oh, God. Oh, God. I don't know, Billy. I don't even want to guess this, because I'm sure it would be like $100 million. I don't know. It's billions off. So what is it? It's $1.78 trillion. OK, that's Bitcoin. Oh, my God. And then the highest market cap company is in video right now, which is 4.5 trillion. Oh, my God. OK, so what's the market cap you think of silver? Oh, Billy, why are you doing this to me? I know. I'm going to get a pop quiz. Yeah, yeah. Oh, no. I really think of this as a space. So no one can see me. We're a market cap right now. Let's see what is it. What is it? Are you cheating? Are you cheating? OK, I am absolutely cheating. Yeah, because no, you just say, just say it. Silver is 6 trillion, supposedly, and gold is 37 trillion. Oh, yeesh. So when this stuff goes up, it goes up, like when gold goes up 20%. That's like from 36 trillion to, like, 48 trillion. You know, it's like it's so the numbers are so insane. Oh, my God. Oh my God, Billy, this is kind of a mind fuck. I would have been totally off about all of these. So. And then we actually, if we can reach the core of the Earth and mine the gold from that, which I don't think is possible because it's like a Julian degrees, but there's like 122 billion metric tons of, no, no, that's just accessible. Where was it? 1.6 quadrillion tons of gold in the core. So all we got to do is drill down there and grab it and not die in the process, which I think is impossible. And we'll probably destroy the planet if we did that. Let's go, guys. But let's get that gold. It's possible that they'll start mining. If we have a base in Mars and we can send out stuff, we can start mining asteroids. And there's certain asteroids that have like a shitload of gold on them or platinum and all the stuff. So there's an estimate that an asteroid that's full of gold will have like $700 quintillion of precious metals on it. Holy shit, send the asteroid. Yeah. Well, let's go. Yeah. I was thinking, oh, could they move it toward Earth? But then I was like, well, that's probably not good. That would be a happy advice. Like, how do we get an asteroid to Earth? We'll just take it and massage it down to Earth. And then we'd all die because we're hoping that the US gets hit by an asteroid so we can marginally owe it a little bit more. Oh, it's a little more precious mineral. It's a little more precious metals. Yeah, perfect. That's our first crappy advice piece to the future people that we should send asteroids down that have a ton of gold on them so we can mine them and then destroy the world. Perfect. Perfect. But we'll at least feel a little bit richer. Perfect. Yay. We can actually start giving real crappy advice or whatever. Yeah. I mean, well, I guess, I mean, just to finalize that little segment, like, you know, we don't give finance. We're not going to tell you guys what to buy, what to do with your money. But, you know, with PolymerGET, we just talked about, you know, even if you don't trade on PolymerGETs, it's an excellent news source. So we just wanted to thank them as our sponsor. But, yeah, no. I mean, Billy, do you give financial advice? I think that that is the only thing. My financial advice is you got to get an adult, like don't listen to fucking idiots on the internet. Figure out by yourself what you want to do with your money and don't blame people because that's stupid. So I agree with that. And I would say no one should listen to my financial advice anyway. I've lost hundreds of thousands of dollars. Yeah, I would. Anyone listen to us. I've lost, I mean, famously, I've traded a bunch of doors, point four, what is they say is a Honda Civic. This is not actually a true story, but whatever. Like I lost out on many millions from stupid crypto trades. So don't listen to me about, no one should listen to me about financial advice, obviously. No one should listen to me about any advice, but we're gonna do it anyway. So some of the rules of this show, we're gonna invite people up. We also have some questions I think written that we might get to, but we're gonna invite people up here. There are three rules. Number one, don't come up and be toxic. We'll butcher. Number two, I know people love to shield their chit coins, but please don't do that. It's annoying and no one cares. So we'll boot you. And number three, oh, that removes some requests, actually. Number three, don't be boring. If you're boring, we'll also boot you because, you know, we're trying to make a show here. So do you wanna start with somebody? Do you wanna start with one of the written questions? We can start with someone. I don't know what's gonna happen, guys. Someone might come on just to be like, I fucking hate you. So I'm a little nervous, but I'm not sure. I have the removal button ready, but let's bring up Lego King. Lego King, how's it going? Lego King. Lego King. Lego King. Lego King. Okay. All right, next one. Let me give some advice, some crappy advice to people. If you wanna come up, please talk. Please say things, please ask your questions. All right, we're gonna bring up dad. His name is dad. Nice name. Yeah, and his picture is like, I was the coolest last time. What's up Tiffany and Shib? How's it going? What's up dad? I'm just chilling here in this new house, trying to sell it with my boyfriend. Damn, it's a flexing on us. Is that what you wanna be called? By the way, you wanna be called dad? Is that your go-to name? You know, I've been going back and forth. I think I like the dad thing, but some people really don't. Some people have really negative experiences with their fathers and I kind of feel that as well. That's sad. I know, I'm thinking about changing it. But maybe you know, I called a lot of people dad on the internet, so I mean, you're just added to the list now. You have a lot of sad stuff in here. You have all the Asian dads. God, I'm collecting all the Asians, and I guess now, I don't know why that's missing you are, but I'm collecting a new one right now. I'm just really white. Yeah, it doesn't seem okay. All right, well, then you white dad. Dad, what do you have a scenario or something that you'd like some crappy advice on? Yeah, I did. When I saw this post, I had a bunch of questions, but now I'm like, this is kind of cool being in a room with you two. Yeah. Well, can you think of one? Think of one of your questions. Think of one of the questions that you had. Um, all right, dad. You know that look thing that's coming, that knocks you off the stage, you got like five seconds for a question. Yeah, I don't have one. I just want to say hi. We'll bring the next one up. Hook me off. You guys are awesome. Thanks. I have a good one, dad. Yeah, dad didn't have a question. Sadness. Jesus. This is the problem with Twitter space. Is it stuff to screen things in advance? See, we were thinking about what format. Yeah, this is screening. We're just, we're just winging it here. Because the next time we do this, we're going to try doing video like live screen format where we can actually read the questions in advance and like kick off the stupid ones or I don't know. We'll figure it out. We'll figure it out. Yeah, first time back in years. I think this is what happened when we did this show live before anyway. Twitter's the truth. We got like like four or five good questions. All right. True. Ready to know mad up. No mad. How are you? No mad. Please. No mad. Please. Damn. This is sad times. Sad times. All right. Give me a number between one and 10 because we have a lot of requesters. One. One. All right. We're getting Evan Aldo up. Evan Aldo, please, please say things. Yes. Oh yeah, I'm a person. When you accept the request, it takes a moment. I didn't like you don't gear. Yeah, it cuts out. But yeah, now I have nothing to say at all. And I'm just kidding. Oh my god. The moon birds, the thing has been talking about. I mean, obviously the news, you know, pow, I mean, I guess just for the cryptover, it's just pray. It's not like, pray it's not like January of 2025 or repeat of that or everything. You know, it comes down a bit. So I think that's the, that's the, my head on dim white. That's the thing to, to realize here. But I mean, I don't know. I feel like Nasdaq double top. That looks weird. Wait, wait, wait. But the show is you ask us a question and then we give you advice. So. I don't know. I give you a bit of, I'm just kidding. Okay. So what's the, what are you guys like? What do you guys think of the moon birds? What do you guys think of that? What is moon birds? Oh god. Is this like the coin that they got? No. Oh, no. No. Okay. I'm, I'm gonna go rock up here because. You know, actually, I think that if anyone like tries to show their stupid ass fucking meme coin, I think we should actually just block them. Like maybe we just block them so they never get invited back again and to disincentivize people showing their shit. Because we're not trying to promote your stupid ass coins. Fuck your stupid coin and fucking stupid and F.T. project. I don't know. You know, sorry. Someone launched a shit coin off one of my posts that's stupid hot dog posts. They've lost it. People see that all the time. Oh no. It's constantly off everything and it's, it's, it's, I think that. I know. It's a get out of my comments section. I don't want to get mad. And if you'd like to talk about it anymore and like Kobe just complained about it this earlier, it's just, it's just kind of toxic garbage. It's insane. Yeah, I'd like to say I've never, I've never, yeah. If you see anyone of, I guess either of us, we have not endorsed it. It is not ours. But hi, Brock. Brock, how's it going? How's it going? I got, I got, you guys need a question, that's it. I'll give you a layup. I appreciate that. I'll give you, I'll give you the layup and then I'll, and then I'll give you a better one. So I got, I got to ask you, is a hot dog a sandwich or no? Oh, that's not a layup. That's hard. Yeah, it should be a layup. Like, this is deep. So, I don't know what the definition of a sandwich is, but I don't consider a hot dog a sandwich. I know it has bread. I know it's surrounding some type of meat. But I personally don't consider a hot dog a sandwich because I think of sandwich as like two pieces of bread that are like not connected and usually, yeah, it's wheat or white. That's a good, that's an important distinction. I feel like that, yeah, a sandwich has two separate pieces of bread and a hot dog, if anything, is a hot dog closer to a taco? But a taco is a little... Deppie closer, I would agree. A little spicy Mexican. So a hot dog is like a white person's taco. There's one carbohydrate, one pepper of carbs. Brock, have you had like some major fights about this? I've asked, so I asked Elon in a space. He said it is not a sandwich. I asked, Linda Yakareano, she said it's not a sandwich. Okay, so pretty much everyone's... Pretty much everyone is brilliant. Was a sandwich? Not anyone like of note yet. So a Greg also, not a sandwich. He thumbs up a little bit. Greg said something? No, I mean, it thumbs up or down. Okay, fair, fair, fair. Yeah. Okay, so what another question. Okay, I'm a Canadian...

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