Crappy Advice with Billy & Tiff - brought to you by @Polymarket
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**总体概述**
这期播客围绕几个热门话题展开:关于伊尔汉·奥马尔事件的“被策划”传闻、美国政府停摆的可能性,以及黄金和白银价格飙升的现象。主持人们引用 Polymarket 的预测数据来佐证观点,并穿插了关于贵金属市值和“从外太空挖矿”的脑洞讨论,最后以自嘲式财务建议和节目规则收尾。
**要点**
- 针对奥马尔遇袭事件,部分 X 账户声称是“自导自演”,但 Polymarket 交易者认为只有约 3% 的可能性是策划的,说明网络噪音与真实概率之间存在巨大差距。
- 政府停摆概率在 Polymarket 上被定价为 72%,因国会就国土安全部拨款僵持不下,若周五前无法达成协议,周六将正式停摆。
- 主持人调侃政府停摆对普通人生活影响甚微,甚至开玩笑说“靠发帖抱怨还能赚互动”。
- 黄金和白银价格飙升,白银接近 117 美元,Polymarket 预测白银月底触及 120 美元的概率为 45%。
- 市值对比:比特币约 1.78 万亿美元,英伟达约 4.5 万亿美元,白银约 6 万亿美元,黄金约 37 万亿美元,宏观资金的体量令人震撼。
- 聊到“挖穿地球采金”和“捕获含金小行星”的科幻想法,但讽刺地指出那会导致毁灭地球的结局。
- 主持人不提供任何财务建议,并自曝投资亏损经历,强调成年人应自己研究、不要轻信互联网上的人。
- 节目规则:上台嘉宾不得口吐恶言、不得
转写文本
I don't know if you've seen this,
but I've seen a ton of ex accounts insist
that this incident had to be staged.
And like, I'm obviously not a fan of Ilhan Omar.
I'm not here to defend her,
but I also think a lot of accounts
probably just wanna post hot takes for engagement.
So, like, yeah.
I heard it was Apple cider vinegar,
but I've also seen like tons of pictures of them together
and then like these community notes are like,
this is AI.
So I, you know, it's like really hard to know.
They're calling the attacker,
they're calling this event like with Jesse Smollett,
2.0 or whatever.
Yeah, I'm seeing a ton of stuff about this
and I'm seeing like, apparently he has liberal kids.
I don't know what exactly is going on,
but like, I don't know.
Instead of just reading headlines,
I was like, okay, let's look on Paulie Morgan,
see what traders are saying about this.
And on Paulie Morgan, traders are only pricing
about a 3% chance that the incident was staged.
So, I mean, it looks like there's a lot of noise on ex.
Like people asserting it's all fake, but then.
Yeah, it's like 98%.
Yeah.
Exactly.
Exactly me too.
It's like my whole feed.
So yeah, I guess it's just sort of like,
I don't know, people are allowed on ex,
but it's like, are you willing to put your money
where you're mouth is?
Are you willing to bet on your online claim?
So I don't know.
I think that Paulie Morgan is actually kind of useful
for looking at stuff.
It's like stories like this.
Yeah, I guess we'll see.
I guess we'll see, I guess we'll see.
And I mean, and there's also a bunch of news
about a potential government shutdown coming up.
Right now, Paulie Morgan's pricing it
at around a 72% chance.
So the government shuts down on Saturday.
And apparently Congress is deadlocked over DHS funding.
And if they don't reach a deal by Friday night,
we get a government shutdown.
Oh, I wonder why.
I wonder if the government shutdown is just like,
they don't do anything anyway.
Like how they determine what.
It's like that's 100% right?
That the government isn't accomplishing anything good for it.
I don't.
Like last year we had apparently the longest
government shutdown in US history for 43 days.
And I'm like, I don't know if it meaningfully impacted my life
at all.
Did it impact your life, Billy?
I don't know.
I made a lot of post complaining.
That was impact.
Maybe we made more money on engagement
on our posts complaining about the government shutdown.
Yeah, maybe we should want to shut down.
I don't know.
OK, so we're rooting for another one.
I don't know.
I just wish we had a competent government,
but I don't want to waste too much time
complaining about the government in our spaces.
Yeah, I feel you.
I feel you.
Well, apparently it's 72% chance.
So we'll see.
We only got a couple days to wait.
And then I mean, also another trending topic,
our last one is that gold and silver prices are skyrocketing right now,
which I mean, as a Bitcoin holder has been very, very distressing to watch.
But polyamarket traders, apparently, a 45%,
there's a 45% chance on polyamarket that silver hits $120 by the end of the month.
Well, what is it now?
Or actually?
I think the last I checked it was 117, so very close.
And the month is only a couple days away.
I saw gold actually hidden all time.
I have 5400.
OK, I have some facts about this.
So I'm going to give you a pop quiz.
Oh, God.
I'm going to fuck this up.
Yeah, that's fine.
I would fuck this up because if I have the notes in front of me.
But all right, you're just going to make me look stupid.
What's the market cap to Bitcoin?
Oh, God.
Oh, God.
I don't know, Billy.
I don't even want to guess this, because I'm sure it would be like $100 million.
I don't know.
It's billions off.
So what is it?
It's $1.78 trillion.
OK, that's Bitcoin.
Oh, my God.
And then the highest market cap company is in video right now, which is 4.5 trillion.
Oh, my God.
OK, so what's the market cap you think of silver?
Oh, Billy, why are you doing this to me?
I know.
I'm going to get a pop quiz.
Yeah, yeah.
Oh, no.
I really think of this as a space.
So no one can see me.
So we have a market cap right now.
Let's see.
What is it?
What is it?
Are you cheating?
Are you cheating?
OK.
I'm absolutely looking up.
I'm just saying it.
Silver is 6 trillion.
Supposedly.
And gold is 37 trillion.
Holy shit.
So when this stuff goes up, it goes up like when gold goes up 20%.
That's like from 36 trillion to like 48 trillion.
It's like, it's so, the numbers are so insane.
Oh, my God, Billy.
kind of a mind-fuck. I would have been totally off about all of these.
And then we actually, if we can reach the core of the earth and mine the gold from that, which I
don't think is possible because it's like a Julian degrees, but there's like 122 billion metric tons of,
no, no, that's just accessible. What is it? 1.6 quadrillion tons of gold in the core. So all we
got to do is drill down there and grab it and not die in the process, which I think is impossible.
And we'll probably destroy the planet if we did that. Let's go guys. But let's get that goal.
It's possible that they'll start mining, you know, if we have a base in Mars and we can send out
stuff, we can start mining asteroids. And there's certain asteroids that have like a
shitload of gold on them or platinum and all this stuff. So there's an estimate that an asteroid
that's full of gold will have like 700 quintillion dollars of precious metals on it. So
Holy shit send the asteroid. Yeah. Well, let's go. Yeah. I was thinking like, oh, could they like
move it toward earth? But then I was like, well, that's probably not good. That would be
happy advice. Like, how do we get an asteroid to earth? We'll just take it and massage it down to
earth. And then we'd all die because we're hoping that the US gets hit by an asteroid so we can
marginally owe it a little bit more. A little more precious mineral. Yeah. Perfect.
First crappy advice piece to the future people that we should send asteroids down that have a ton
of gold on them so we can mine them and then destroy the world. Perfect. Perfect. But we'll at least
feel a little bit richer. Perfect. Yay. Well, we can actually start giving real crappy advice or
whatever. Yeah. I mean, well, I guess I mean, just to finalize that little segment, like, you know,
we don't give finance. We're not going to tell you guys what to buy, what to do with your money.
But, you know, with PolymerGa, we just talked about, you know, even if you don't trade on
PolymerGa, it's an excellent news source. So we just wanted to thank them as our sponsor. But,
uh, yeah, no, I mean, Billy, do you give financial advice? I think that that is my financial advice.
My financial advice is you got to get a, you're an adult. Like, don't listen to fucking idiots on the
internet. Just figure out by yourself what you want to do with your money and don't blame people
because that's stupid. So I agree with that. And I would say no one should listen to my financial
advice anyway. I've lost hundreds of thousands of dollars. Yeah. Why would anyone listen to us? Like,
I've lost, I mean, famously, I've traded a bunch of doors point for what is they say is a
Honda Civic, this is not actually a true story, but whatever. Like, I, I lost out on many millions
from stupid crypto trades. So don't listen to me about, like, no one should listen to me about
financial advice, obviously, no one should listen to me about any advice, but we're going to do it
anyway. So some of the rules of this show, um, we're going to invite people up. We also have some
questions. I think written that we might get to. But, uh, we're going to invite people up here.
There are three rules. Number one, don't come up and be toxic. We'll boot you. Number two,
I know people love to chill their chit coins, but please don't do that. It's annoying and no one cares.
So we'll boot you. And number three, oh, that, that removes some requests, actually. Number three,
don't be boring. If you're boring, we'll also boot you because, you know, we're trying to make a show
here. So, um, you want to start with somebody? Do you want to start with one of the written questions?
Um, um, start with someone. I don't know what's going to happen, guys. Someone might come on
just to be like, I fucking hate you. So I'm a little nervous, but I'm sure I'll have the, uh,
the removal button ready, but ready. Let's bring up Lego King. Lego King. How's it going?
Lego King. Lego King. Lego King. Okay. All right. Next one. Let me, let me give some advice,
some crappy advice to people. If you, if you want to come up, please talk. Please say things.
Please ask your questions. All right. We're going to bring up dad. His name is dad.
Nice name. Yeah. And his picture is like, guy with the cool stuff. Tiffany and Shib. How's it going?
What's up, dad? I'm just chilling here in this new house, trying to sell it with my
dancing on us. Yeah. Is that what you want to be called? By the way, you want to be called dad? Is that
your, your go to name? You know, I've been going back and forth. I think I like the dad thing.
But some people really don't. Some people have really negative experiences with their fathers and I
kind of feel that that's sad. I know I'm thinking about changing it. But maybe, I mean, I feel that
clogged. Yeah. I call a lot of people dad on the internet. So I mean, you're just added to the list.
Now you have a lot of dad's, Tiffany. You have all the Asian dads.
God, I'm collecting all the Asians. And I guess now I don't know why that's the you are, but I'm
collecting a new one right now. I'm pretty white. Yeah, it doesn't seem okay. All right. Well,
did you write dad? Dad, what do you have a scenario or something that you'd like some crappy advice on?
Yeah, I did. When I saw this post, I had a bunch of questions. But now I'm like, this is kind of
cool being in the room with you too. Yeah. Well, well, can you think of one?
Think of one of the questions that you had.
Um, all right, dad. That's all that that hook thing that's coming that that knocks you off the stage.
You got like five seconds for a question. Yeah, I don't have one. I just want to say hi. We'll
bring the next one up. Hook me off. You guys are awesome. Thanks. Like I have a good one. Dad.
Yeah, dad, dad didn't have a question. Sadness. She says this is the problem with Twitter spaces.
It's tough to screen things in advance. See, we were thinking about what format. Yeah, this is
the screening. We're just we're just winging it here. Because the next time we do this, we're going to
try doing video like live stream format where we can actually read the questions in advance and
like kick off the stupid ones or I don't know. We'll figure it out. We'll figure it out. Yeah.
First time back in years. I think this will happen when we did this show live before anyway.
Twitter's the truth. We got like like four or five good questions. All right.
We're writing a nomad up. Nomad. How are you? Nomad. Please. Nomad. Please.
Damn. This is sad times. Sad times. All right. Give me a number between one and ten because we have
a lot of requesters. One. One. All right. We're getting Evan Aldo up. Evan Aldo, please, please say
things. Oh, yes. Oh, yeah. I'm person. When you when you when you accept the request, it takes
a moment. I didn't like you don't gear yet. It cuts out but yeah. Now I have nothing to say.
I don't. I'm kidding. Oh my God. The moon birds. The thing has been talking about. I mean,
obviously the news, you know, pow, I mean, I guess just for the cryptover, it's just pray. It's not
like pray. It's not like January of 2025. A repeat of that where everything, you know, comes down a bit.
So I think that's the that's the in my head on damn white. That's the thing to to realize here, but I
mean, I don't know. I feel like Nasdaq double top that looks weird. Wait, but the show is you ask us
a question and then we give you advice. So no, no, I give you a bit. I'm just kidding. Okay. So
what's the what do you guys like? What do you guys think of the moon birds? What do you guys think of
that? What is moon birds? Oh God. Oh, it's like the coin. The coin. The coin. The coin. No.
No. Okay. I'm I'm gonna rock up here because you know, actually, I think that if if anyone like tries to
show their stupid ass fucking meme coin, I think we should actually just block them. Like maybe we
just block them so they never get invited back again and to disincentivize people showing their
shit because we're not trying to promote your stupid ass coins. Fuck your stupid coin and
fuck your stupid and Fc project. I don't know. Sorry. Someone launched a shit coin off of one of my
posts. That's stupid hot dog posts. People see that all the time. Oh, no. It's constantly off
everything and it's I say that. I know it's a get out of my comments section. I don't want to get
in there. If you'd like to talk about it anymore and like Kobe just complained about it this
earlier. It's just it's just kind of toxic garbage. It's insane. Yeah. I'd like to say I've never
I've never yeah. If you see anyone of I guess either of us, we have not endorsed it. It's not
ours. But hi, Brock. Brock. How's it going? I got I got you guys need a question. Yeah.
I appreciate that. I'll give you I'll give you the layup and then I'll and then I'll give you a
better one. So I got I got to ask you as a hot dog sandwich or no. Oh, that's not a layup. That's
hard. Yeah, it should be a layup. So I don't know what the definition of a sandwich is. But I don't
consider a hot dog a sandwich. I know it has bread. I know it's surrounding some type of meat.
But I personally don't consider a hot dog a sandwich because I think of sandwich as like
two pieces of bread that are like not connected and usually. Yeah. Weat or white. That's a good
that's an important distinction. I feel like that yeah, sandwich has two separate pieces of bread
and a hot dog if anything is a hot dog closer to a taco. But a taco is definitely closer. I would
agree. A little spicy Mexican. So a hot dog is like a white a white person's taco.
There's one one carbohydrate. One pepper of carbs. Brock, if you had like some major fights about this.
I've asked. So I asked Elon in a space. He said it is not a sandwich. I asked
Linda Yakareano. She said it's not a sandwich. Okay. So pretty much everyone's
pretty much everyone is a sandwich. Not anyone like of note yet. So a Greg also not a sandwich. He
thumbs up. Greg said something. No, I mean it thumbs up or down. Okay. Fair fair fair.
Yeah. Okay. So what another question. Okay. I'm a Canadian.
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