Bitcoin Tomorrow - Crossing The Chasm 🚀🚀🚀

Sam and Sam 订阅播客 3h 18m 0 次下载 收录于 2026-10-10 #热门

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比特币已跨越鸿沟进入主流采用阶段,数字信贷和机构入场是推动其突破15%早期采用者市场的桥梁。 - 技术采用曲线中,早期采用者和创新者仅占15%市场,而早期主流和晚期主流两个群体合计占70%,是真正的大众市场。 - 主流用户要的是熟悉、成品化的产品,不关心技术如何构建,只关心用例——比特币面临技术和货币双重门槛。 - 比特币此前一直在前15%的小池子里"钓鱼",白皮书、UTXO、难度调整等讨论对主流用户毫无吸引力。 - 数字信贷和机构采用(如Strategy、Strive、BlackRock、Charles Schwab等)是比特币跨越鸿沟的桥梁,用户甚至无需意识到自己在使用比特币。 - 作者认为比特币已与传统市场脱钩,不再与纳斯达克等相关联,债券、伊朗战争、通胀等话题当前只是干扰噪音。 - 当前真正的核心叙事是机构入场和数字信贷,这是比特币走向主流的两个关键杠杆。 - 预测Strategy本季度末可达100万枚比特币,Strive可能达6万枚;Strategy转向每日分红将被市场视为数字信贷经过压力测试的信号。 - 作者认为资金回流不会让SETA受损,"涨潮会托起所有船",Strategy的实战检验和每日分红将同时利好两者。 关注机构入场和数字信贷这一主线,而非短期宏观噪音,比特币跨越鸿沟的进程可能比预期更顺畅。

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So the first two together comprised 15% and the next two comprise 70%. So that's a hell of a market that an increase in your total addressable market if you can make it over the chasm. And then finally at the end of the bell curve drops down again to 15% and those people are referred to as lagers or ultra conservative. So when it comes to technology and we all know people like that in our families. They're not the people who are going to use new gadgets. They're not the people who are going to trust technology until everyone else has already adopted it. They're the type of people who will only use the new technology when they're forced to. So for example, if your bank only has an online portal and you're the type of person who doesn't trust online transactions. Well, you're either going to use your bank or you're not. If you're going to use it, you have to use the online portal. So the lagers are forced to use technology. But those two cohorts in the middle, the early mainstream and the late mainstream. 70% of your total addressable market after emerging technologies. So my thesis all along has been that to this point Bitcoin has been fishing in the first two categories. For a total addressable market size of 15% of the population. And you can hear that in spaces. You can see it in the timeline. And you can hear that conferences. That type of I would say quirky personality that maybe we all have. When you talk with the white paper and taking self-costal and conversations about UTXOs and difficulty adjustment. Those are very niche conversations, right? The mainstream doesn't want any part in a technology that requires that level of hurdle to either understand or use the technology. So the mainstream wants familiarity. They want a finished product. They want something that they don't have to worry about how the technology is constructed. They just want the use case. They want to be able to use the technology for their purposes. And that's it. They don't care how it was built. They don't want to know any of the technicalities. So where I'm going with all of this is my thesis all along has been that this has been a problem for any emerging technology. And I felt that Bitcoin has especially suffered from this because it has a double hurdle. Not alone is it a technology and emerging technology. But it's also money. So there are two reasons that the mainstream are conservative and may not want to adopt it. So I'll get to my point. Digital credit and institutional adoption. I believe are the bridges across which Bitcoin gets to that mainstream. So the sort of the old way of one on one or one to one adoption through orangepelling. It's kind of you could look at it on it as being primitive. Right. It's it's very slow. And as I say you're fishing in that small pool. And the alternative to that is strategy, strive, black rock, city, Jaruch Schwab, all of the institutions. They're able to pitch the thing to their clients. They don't even need to pitch it. They just need to add it to portfolios. So people are using Bitcoin in an adjacent way without even realizing that they're using it. So I see that has been really important. So how do I decide article this morning? How digital credit is helping Bitcoin to cross the chasm? That's my belief. I've had a week of kind of. Well, I've had two years of thinking about this, but I've had a week after the Bitcoin Treasury conference in New York to sort of fully. Digest. What's happening right now? So I'm going to land the plane here. My belief is Bitcoin has already decoupled from traditional correlations. I believe it is decoupled from NASDAQ. I believe it is decoupled from largely from any other correlation. I think the conversations around bonds, the Iran war, inflation, money printing. I think those things are a distraction right now. And I think what we should really be focusing on, the real story is institutional arrival and digital credit. I believe those are the two letters across which Bitcoin is going to reach the mainstream. And by the way, I think it will be a fairly seamless journey across that chasm thanks to those. But they could learn it's a strategy and strive. And I'll land the plane with this. I think strategy can get the one million coins by the end of the quarter. And I think strive can probably get to, well, strive is a bit harder to predict. But I think strive can get to possibly 60,000 Bitcoin by the end of this quarter. I reject the notion that that SETA is going to suffer too much from a reallocation back to stretch. I think the rising tide is going to lift both boats. I think the fact that stretch has been battle tested. I think the fact that strategy will move to daily dividends mid quarter. I think that alone screams to the market, the digital market. I think that alone screams to the market, the digital credit has been stressed tested, battle tested. And as now I have mainstream trouble for the innovation. So I think that will benefit SETA as well. So I don't go with this notion that now that strategy, now that stretch is back in business, that SETA has to lose volume. That's it, that's my premise for the space. Of course we'll get people like three years coming and try to talk about gold at Nazim. But we'll try to keep this conversation about Bitcoin adoption and crossing the chasm. So let's see where we go with it. I'll get British, how are you feeling? You're still sick? You still got that onesie on? I'm trying to accept the request. Now he's gone. This app is crazy. So British, if you can hear me from wherever you are, going back in and send request, I was trying to approve you. But I'm left here on my own about laying the thesis. Ah, three is this man. I'm not doing it. I'm just not doing it today. Three is this. Sorry. I'm not. I'm just not. We're talking about Bitcoin, we're talking about Bitcoin adoption. I don't want an awkward conversation with gold. So I've got another guy here. Man, am I able to approve of these requests? I might have to reboot the space. I've tried to, oh, there you go. Capital. Morning. Morning, Sam. Good morning. What do you think of that? I think you're perfectly correct on that. You are in the initial phases of adoption, Kovan. You know, the basic idea of which people are forgetting is people used to think, you know, I would say this. 99% of the people thought BDC was a bubble without ever considering that actually USD is the bubble. Yeah, sure. It's printed like anything and it's going to be print. There is no other option. There is no other way. And be it any country in the world. Only thing which is quantifiable and finite is Bitcoin. Now, to get to the masses, not everybody can afford $100,000 to buy a piece of Bitcoin, I think all these companies, be it's try strategy, you know, ETFs, I bet. These are all conduits to get the adoption done. And at the end, everybody shall win. Yeah, I don't think anybody has anything to fear from these institutions. I reject this notion of a corporate capture, paper, Bitcoin, I reject those fear. I think it's not sure nonsense, you know, the blockchain takes care of that. The transactions are transparent. The Bitcoin protocol takes care of fence play. So what? I, you know, asked this question to Doc once and he was like, why does micro strategy not show proof of reserve? I was like, first, you show your proof of reserve that you are a Bitcoin and then you ask others. Exactly. So the basic premise of decentralization, permissionless. Bitcoiners who want strategy to show proof of reserves conveniently forget that at the buyer of Bitcoin, you don't need to prove anything to anyone. You don't need to prove of anything. That's the whole concept of this asset, right? Whether exactly whether you're a plan in the wilderness or an institution in New York City, you're a knowner of Bitcoin and you're decentralized. So yeah, that's a good point, well made. I'm very thankful to you Sam and to British HODL. I wish he was here, one for educating me personally because I've been following both of you for a while now. I don't come on stage that much because I love listening rather than, you know, talking about it. But the perspective you put as an Lehman is excellent man and congratulations for that. A lot of hard work has gone into this time and I really appreciate that. Well, my background and for anyone else in the call, I've spent pretty much from I was a child who was fascinated by how technology is emerge. There was a program on BBC when I was a kid called tomorrow's world. It used to be on prime time, I think Thursday or Friday night. We used to sit down as a family and watch it. And they would show you prototypes that were coming out of, you know, the companies and also, you know, research facilities. So they would show you some like futuristic prototype and then they would discuss it and they would discuss the trend or what problem this technology solved. And very often you would look back at past episodes and these prototypes would never make it to the mainstream. And I used to always wonder if these things are so revolutionary and were so well conceived. Why didn't they make it to the mainstream? That used to pull me even to the child. And I guess then as an adult, I studied computer science. My master's was a time to my market, my master's to coincide with the arrival of the iPhone, which was a huge paradigm shift from the early cell phones into smartphones. So, and then in my work in life, I worked a little bit as a software developer, but I absolutely hated being in the back end. There was more interested. I've always been more interested in where new technology is presented to users. So throughout my work in life, I've worked as a client success manager and account manager, client experience manager, basically working for vendors and cop and the clients about how they can extract value from technology. So you're basically the pivot between technology and people. So my interest has always been, if a technology can provide value, the only missing piece is sort of education targeted towards the mainstream. So when I got to Bitcoin, I automatically provide, looked at Bitcoin through the context of an emerging technology through the same lands that any other technology and how it gets adopted. And I've sort of been building this thesis for, I don't know, for as long as I've been in Bitcoin in the past two or three years. But to me, I absolutely think that there's a lot of evidence to suggest that Bitcoin has been stuck at the chasm for quite some time. I think it experienced explosive early growth. That's what emerging technologies do, the experience. And then they reach a plateau or a chasm. And that's really the tipping point that determines where you go from there. And I don't think, I don't think the user experience in terms of cold storage has improved anything in the past six to eight, maybe even 10 years. I think the usability is per the hurdle for new users to get to a safe place is too high. So something needed to change for this thing to get adopted. You're not going to go to a million dollar Bitcoin by orange-pilling people and only with self-cost. I think the missing pieces, the institutional adoption. And in my article this morning, I described what strategy and strive in the institutions are doing. It's the simplification, the syndication and the commercialization of the orange-pilling process. That's what I believe it is. I completely agree. And I'll also add to the one thing in there. People are not on the two types of people I've come across. Some people love to collect cash and some people love to invest for future gains. The best part and the beauty of strategy and strive is, they have given you both the options. You want to make money out of 12% interest, go for it. You want to improve your BTC amount. In terms of dollars, we have the MSTR or ASST. You choose where you want to invest at the end, the use of wins. And here's something that a lot of Bitcoiners don't understand. There's a lot of people out there in the mainstream who don't want explosive growth. They want capital preservation. They want income.

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