Transcript
basically going to be a pretty significant infrastructure build out.
So it's not something that's going to happen overnight,
but it is something that is shaping up to be a big impact on the major telecom providers here in the US.
And obviously, it seems like investors are now repricing the big telecom providers.
The second story I'd love to cover for today.
And I think that this has probably been the most interesting financial story to come out of the last 24 hours.
Is the financial times published a report suggesting that open AIs annualized revenue was closer to 50 billion,
rather than the approximately 70 billion that had been circulating in previous reports.
Again, none of these numbers are verified completely because it is not a public company,
but there are reports from people close to the company.
Wall Street obviously did what the markets typically do.
And when they see a giant AI number that unexpectedly gets smaller, it panicked.
We had NVIDIA, fall somewhere around 3%, or it will drop to around more than 5%.
Semiconductor stocks took a pretty big beating, and suddenly everyone was asking whether the artificial intelligence bubble had popped.
But a lot of people are going to have an egg on their face, and here's the problem.
They weren't measuring the same thing.
The difference comes from the way open AI and Anthropic account for sales through their cloud partners.
We've talked about this on the show many a times.
I believe it was a month and a half to maybe two months ago now that the Wall Street Journal had put out a piece about open AIs revenue,
and we had a pretty robust conversation about that.
So we won't get too deep into the weeds on it.
Here's how it works. Anthropic counts certain partner sales on a gross basis, including revenue generated through companies like AWS, Amazon Web Services, and Google Cloud.
Whereas open AI reports certain partner transactions differently, recording its share of the revenue rather than the entire amount collected by the partner.
If I were to give a very simplistic example of this, imagine a customer, one customer spends $100 accessing AI through a cloud provider.
Under a gross accounting treatment, the AI company might report the full $100 in revenue, and then record the cloud provider's commission as an expense.
But under a net treatment, it might only recognize the $70 it actually receives.
So we're talking about the same customer, we're talking about the same $100 spent, but a different reported top line revenue.
And some investors had been adjusting open AIs figures to make them more comparable to Anthropics, and those adjusted figures made their way into media.
Now I would expect better from somebody with a media with exactly finance in their title, the Financial Times, but they didn't get that right.
So it does not establish that open AI suddenly lost $20 billion in business from $70 billion to $50 billion.
It just shows the dangers of comparing financial metrics when we have not agreed and nobody seems to agree on one definition.
One last important detail, late last night Bloomberg did come out and reported that open AI still expects to reach or exceed a $70 billion annual or annualized revenue pace by the end of year end of 2026.
So we've got the September revenue pace around 50 billion, a year end expectation of $70 billion, and a previous $70 billion comparison that wasn't actually calculated the same way.
So I want to emphasize it, these are three different things that are being discussed as though they are interchangeable.
Does that mean there's not legitimate concerns about the AI industry? Of course not, we still are talking about the capital expenditures, massive valuations, we don't know margins, none of these companies have gone public yet.
And it seems like they all keep pushing this back a little bit further. So there's legitimate conversations here, but I think the most valuable lesson to take away from this other than you don't hate the media enough because the markets reacted to bad reporting by the Financial Times.
But you can't have these type of accounting comparisons and treat it as a collapse in customer demand. It was just bad reporting.
And especially when trillions of dollars are market capitalization are all tied to the confidence of the AI industry.
So that costs some big issues. Another one from DTMself, we're jumping across the Atlantic for this one, the London Stock Exchange obviously has been struggling with IPOs for quite a while, but it's actually got a significant one this morning, which is AirTell Money, which is an African Fintech company.
It's debuting on the London Stock Exchange with a valuation around $7 billion. I looked into it, serves roughly $53 million active users across 13 African markets and its payments, transfers of money and other financial services.
I guess the interesting part of this story is London is obviously watched over time as most public offerings go through the New York Public Stock Exchange.
So they're them having a multi-billion dollar Fintech IPO as a meaningful win for their market.
And then last but not least here, we have the issue of Disney and IMAX, which is Disney's reportedly approaching major movie studios about its theater screen initiative called Infinity Vision.
And they originally introduced Infinity Vision as a certification program for theaters, the ones that offer the enormous screens, laser projection, premium sound, etc.
But now they're talking to Paramount, Universal, Lionsgate, Sony and others about bringing their movies into the program.
And so they're essentially trying to compete with IMAX here. So instead of just owning the Blockbuster movie, Disney wants more influence on the movie going experience here, investors are obviously starting to consider what this does with the movie.
And this does with IMAX's business here. So it's a pretty fascinating battle over who controls what we can get into that conversation if you all would like.
So that's what we're starting with this Friday, Elon Musk is challenging the wireless establishment, AI stocks, it's kind of reminding everybody how quickly headlines can move markets.
And then he's hoping is hoping is hoping to revive its IPO business and Disney wants to put its name on the biggest screen in the theaters. So a lot going on here.
And that's going to make for an interesting day in the market. Let's get into it. If anybody's got hands, we will start actually with Mr. David tall will since he is up on stage and get everybody rocking rolling. Thanks for joining us David.
Thank you, Brandon. Thanks to Brandon and Justin for.
Geez that my connection wasn't good and I'm a little bit delayed here, but in any event, let's get let's get back to things on London.
So so the yes, this is the this is the largest IPO in London in five years, which is remarkable because we have seen so much happen over the last five years.
And I think Paul's laughing because I remember and the talk being is one didn't going to be the next world financial center.
And it's clearly not the case at this point. It's it's without a doubt. I mean, it may be second, but it's a far second.
And even it's so ironic that even with today's IPO, Revolut, which is the real UK base IPO that people are waiting for and the CEO of Revolut, which is digital payments company is the wealthiest person in the UK.
He was asked today, will you be listing in London? And he said, emphatically sure, but my primary exchange will be in the United States when we go public.
So I just think it's really important in the context of, you know, where the power is in the world to go ahead and and keep focused on that.
I'll get back to some other stuff in a bit, but go ahead, go to the other hands.
Awesome. Thank you. Let's just and if you got something real quick, and then we'll get to Carlok, as we know he's got a show in 15.
Sure, the significance of the SpaceX news is obviously it's a satellite direct to cell phone, which is the big innovation.
But the bigger innovation, I mean, they purchased a bunch of spectrum. So they're going to they're awaiting FCC approval. It's not approved yet. It probably will be.
But the big innovation here. And this is the part I don't quite understand.
Maybe there's a technor that understands more about satellite and spectrum. But apparently it penetrates rooftops and fixed structures.
So that means one of the concerns with I think I don't remember which CEO was, but someone was, of course, there's always someone mocking Elon Musk. You think people learn their lesson, but they'll whatever it does.
Whenever he enters the new industry.
Let someone was mocking him saying the idiot doesn't know. I mean, this is paraphrasing the idiot doesn't know satellite can't get into the house or you know, and apparently it can.
So apparently that's the innovation of this competitive penetrates structures and houses, which is why you saw AT&T T mobile and Verizon fall off a cliff.
And obviously these companies aren't going away, but these companies have viable competition now. And as David, David knows that you're tweet last week.
They all, I haven't ever used T mobile. I've used AT&T and Verizon before and they're both very similar. They treat you like crap. They don't really care.
They put you through a labyrinth of options. It's called a tactic called customer deflection, by the way. You can look that up. This is by design. If you're like, man, I feel like they're putting you in a wild goose chase. Yeah, they actually are doing that in purpose because they want you to go away.
And so they've been employing these tactics for a while. And now they've realized a better technology can come up and offer an alternative. And they're all, they're probably all scared at this point, which good. You know what? Screw all you guys for, you know, screwing your customers. Now you have competition. Maybe just maybe hear me out, Verizon and AT&T. Maybe you should have been nice to people. Try that, try that moving forward.
Excellent. Yeah, I've been in the green more. I've had my own spats with Verizon in the past and there, you know, there's some things you can do. I sent it to David, hopefully help them with some stuff he had going on yesterday.
Carlo over to you. And then we can get back to this conversation. We can get back to open AI. We can go on further. But we'll let Carlo do is crypto update for the day before his eight 30 show.
Brandon, thank you so much. Good morning, David. Good morning, everyone. I do want to build on this Elon announcement and take a little different perspective on it. But first the crypto markets.
Look yesterday, I said that the token 2049 some conference in Singapore wrapped up. It is generally the trend that you see a lot of hype going into these major global crypto conferences. And then inevitably as everyone starts to get back to reality, they sell and take profits off that hype. And you see charts turn red charts across the board are largely now starting to paint green again.
And I think this is more a contagion effect of the bond pressure that we're seeing as well as the crypto post conference dump. So I would expect those charts to continue to turn green.
And in those green charts, there may be some opportunities to buy some dips onto the Elon story. I think the part of it branded that is is fascinating to me. And it plays into the notion of this on chain economy that I am sort of an analyzing and unpacking
is that on the heels of that announcement about the potential of satellite driven cell phone service completely disrupting the telecommunications market.
And as you said, those telecommunication stocks, AT&T Verizon, tanking on the overnight charts, Elon drops a post, which is very, very mon brand for Elon.
This will sound super crazy, but I see a path to SpaceX being worth orders of magnitude more than the current earth economy.
And the reason I think that's a fascinating place to start the conversation here is because the notion that SpaceX could be the biggest company on the planet is certainly a viable thesis.
He's disrupting AI, he's disrupting robotics, he's disrupting data centers, he's now disrupting cell phone communication protocols.
And.