转写文本
iPhone, you swipe from the top and from the right hand on the top while you're in the
app or on the call.
And at the very top, there is something that says controls and you can change it to wide
spectrum.
When you change it to wide spectrum, apparently, it comes through a lot better.
So sharing all this knowledge with you, forgive me for being such a, I don't know, non-tech,
heavy person, appreciate your patients with me.
My children probably wouldn't be as patient if I spoke to them about it.
But in any event, I hope everybody had a great holiday weekend for those that celebrated
end of summer.
Although there's really no formal end of summer and joy, continue to enjoy the good weather
if it's there for you.
But let's get to a bunch of news.
So the United States markets were closed yesterday, but everywhere else in the world was pretty
rocking and rolling.
And even with the US closed, there is a bunch of US-related news that came out over the
weekend plus.
And this is really where it starts to get interesting.
Later this week we have inflation reads, PPI on Thursday, CPI on Friday.
Next week we've got the Fed.
And I think things will come into much greater focus towards the end of the week and people
will start to make real serious calls.
After that, the big news of the weekend, lots of upward price movement and the price of
crude oil on us, I'm sure everybody is waiting with baited breath to find out everything
that's going on across the globe.
So whenever you want to start, you let us know even if it's a bit earlier than usual,
that's fine too.
I want to announce that Carlo is starting his own show.
It will be a half hour into this show if you leave to go to listen to his show.
I'm okay with that.
I take no offense, folks.
Definitely, it is going to be Crypto-centric, Stablecoin-centric.
And I'm sure it will be a worthwhile listen.
Let's get to the UK where I think things begin.
Andy Burnham, now Prime Minister, he's got a budget that needs to come out in October.
The borrowing costs for the UK haven't been higher than since 1998.
He's got socio-political policy problems as well with respect to migration.
He's got a pretty split government in terms of government.
And I'll just throw this in.
Germany's far right, faction FD1, a record, 44% in Saxony.
Saxony is right leaning to begin with.
It is in the east of Germany, but nevertheless, it is the Germany's first far right party
that could possibly win state government since World War II.
And we're not here for the politics of it, but this is important for the finance of
it.
The yen is now rallying to a seven month high, so we came down all the way down, and
now we are rallying back pretty hard.
Today at 8.30, sorry, I should have said this earlier, today at 8.30 in about 20 minutes,
we will get the August jobs report, which will be important.
In addition on Andy Burnham's plate is the fact that one of the highest paying tax citizens
of the UK is leaving the UK.
Chris Rokos, who started his career at Brevon Howard as an asset manager, and then took
a couple of years off and launched Rokos.
His typical long short hedge fund, tens of billions of dollars on the management, was
the largest start of the year, maybe five or six years ago, I think.
In any event, he has decided to leave the country for Greece because of the tax seemingly
because of the tax structure against higher earners in the UK.
We've talked about it here in the US regarding California, regarding New York, the camp, into
Florida, whatever.
It just is, right?
I mean, I don't need to get into whether New York's going to be left with just
homeless people and penniless, but I know people taking me for that message.
I am not passing that message on, but the message is Chris Rokos is leaving the UK, and he's
going to Greece because of favorable tax treatment over there.
Along with the yen rallying, folks are speculating that Japan has probably dumped a bunch of
US treasuries in the same vein.
China's US treasury holdings are at their lowest level in a quarter century, considering
the fact that the US treasury market has encradered with all this is pretty impressive.
Japan needs liquidity, and it might have been selling US treasuries late, and China's
holdings are coming down in the fact that it hasn't imploded the treasury market here
in the United States.
I think that's pretty good as far as things go.
I'm going to take a breath for a second here, and I'm going to go to Lumie's hand on
anything that I've discussed thus far, or anything else you want to bring up this morning.
Go ahead.
Good morning to you.
Good morning, and a happy weekend to everyone.
The taxes for Greece, this is really important because they recently changed and modernized
their tax system for certain things where they're not allowing for basically double taxation
to occur.
Greece is very unproductive economy.
They are one of the picks, as they would say, in Europe.
It's just one of those things where they've managed to understand the situation very well.
If they carry on with this approach, I know a few friends who have already moved from
various, even from Canada to Greece, which is ironic because they've seen how this is
shaping up to be quite beneficial for people with a high net loss, and who are really
fed up with some policy.
I really think it's really smart.
It's going to be interesting.
It's going to redefine Europe.
I think the UK is really infrastructure lacking, and I've been trying to warn people about
this for a while because as soon as the tax receipts start to reduce there, they've only
got two options.
The first option is to either raise taxes and the people are still there, which is going
to really not do a great job.
The second option is to maybe reform and do things better, which they're not going to
do.
They've done the top of that.
I already think that the UK is in real shalack.
Yeah.
I am a New Jersey state resident, our highest tax payer, David Tepper of Appalusa asset management
left a few years ago.
It was serious.
Listen, some folks at the very, very upper end are incredibly mobile, especially if they're
later on in years or on kids running around their house anymore.
It's pretty easy.
They've probably spent a lot of time out of the state anyway for business and for pleasure
at second and third, fourth, fifth homes.
Leaving the state and going through a better tax jurisdiction and trust me, rich people
don't become rich because they go ahead and just pay extra taxes when they don't have
to.
They watch every penny.
They're going to be smart about it.
And if that's what puts them over the top, so be it.
Eric, good morning.
Good morning.
Good morning.
So more on these tax phenomenon.
It's been there for a while.
It's been increasing recently as a lot of government, especially in Western world.
Need more taxes and there's more mobility for the people to move around.
But it's not a new phenomenon.
What is happening, I have to mention, for example, the case of Portugal, which is the place
in Europe, which is attracting the most billionaires right now.
I think along with Switzerland, but Portugal, especially during the last few years, what
happened is that they decided to put tax free for 10 years, for retirees and for certain
people, certain group.
A lot of people took advantage of that.
France and Germany got angry at it.
They told Portugal you can't do that.
We cannot have all our people leave to take advantage of the tax loophole that you're giving.
So Portugal backtracks on that, but they still have some favorable deals to some extent.
For people coming into the country, from these journalists to other specific type of people
who will want to move there.
So you have places like that, Singapore as well, attracts a lot of people who are very wealthy
because of very low tax rate and the high quality of life Dubai, I mean before the war,
now maybe a bit different.
And in order to change that, to balance that, the decision has to be like the G20 together
and enforcing all the other countries, all agree to not that.
Minimum tax rate for the wealthy.
Otherwise, it's free for all.
And the migration automatically happens.
And traditionally, the only country who could have pushed that.
Like we saw a push by a giant alien to try and get the G7 and G20 to agree to minimum.
That's right for the business world, not for the individuals.
But at this time in age, it would have been the US and now the US cannot agree economically
with any country, the trade warring everywhere.
So it would be very difficult to stop the exodus of people who have wealth to another jurisdiction
who decides to put these tax breaks to attract them into the country.
And then they can spend into the country sometime, invest into the country according to whatever
yield they give them.
Where this becomes a problem is how do you sustain the expenses that are happening in the
Western world, and they've been accumulating over time with massive debts if you do not have
the tax revenue.
And if they all go to Mauritius Island, to Portugal and to Singapore and to, I don't
know, British Virgin Islands, a couple of other physical parts as Brunei and whatnot.
I'm listing quite a few here on the show that you can look them up.
They each have different very good tax incentives for very different reasons.
And what happens to the countries which need that tax revenue?
They will double down on how they tax the rest of the citizen.
They kind of have no choice.
And that's going to be a very, very difficult thing on the population, the general population
at large.
The other way would be to tax corporations one, but then corporations will leave.
So they're really in a bind.
And without a proper leadership and agreement between the large countries to have a minimum
tax structure, there'll be a lot of capital flight like that.
If the gap is too big, and I do not see any solution, the other solution for these governments
will be to get a big doge and balance the budget, but as we'll discuss many times on
this show, none of them has the incentive, political incentive to do that.
If the trillionaire Elon Musk couldn't do it, and who will be able to force the government
to do that is, they need a big crisis to be able to actually, maybe someday, enforce
that.
So until then that sadly, that migration will continue to happen.
But it is because they cannot agree with each other, it will have a minimum tax rate.
And because the effect I think which is really bad, is it going to tax more the rest of
the cities and because how else are we going to get the money?
Or print more debt?
And this is where we're heading.
And this is the trade of the next few years as we've been talking on the show, massive
money printing, more and more and more unsustainable path, which is very dangerous, which is why we
have these debts.
Just like you said at the beginning of the show, David, eating you highs back to you.
Thanks.
Look.
So all the politics is very interesting.
UK, Germany, France, and we'll continue to watch.
I think an example of the complacency of Europe generally is what's happened to the automotive
industry.
We've talked about it.
We've talked about Volkswagen.
We've spoken about Jaguar Land Rover, Jaguar Land Rover, cutting 4,000 jobs over the next
few years.
They've also been through a tough time in terms of supply chain, in terms of also system
hacks.
I don't know if you recall their entire network of dealerships were down across the world
last year because of a hack.
They weren't going to pay the ransom.
Finally, they were able to get out of it.
We don't know all the details on it.
I'm sure they don't want it to be public.
Volkswagen, we've recorded their difficulties, ratcheting up the amount of folks they're
firing rumor out today that they're going to sell off their motorcycle business.
I know none of you have ever seen a Volkswagen motorcycle.
They own Ducati.
So they are looking potentially to sell Ducati.
I'm sure for somebody it's going to be a trophy asset of some sort, but they continue
to have to break themselves apart and generate some liquidity.
And then Stellantis asking for help from BYD to go ahead and salvage Mazarradi.
That also was out over the weekend.
I just think the complacency across the board here with respect to European automakers.
By the way, the US is in no great shape either.
We put all our car makers through bankruptcy.
So that's the way we did the car wash on them.
But it seems like the Chinese have essentially eaten everybody's lunch when it comes to automobiles.
And so I just think it's an interesting.