Bitcoin, Straight no Chaser

I mean, I don't know how to say to you. You know, the whole thing's so insane. Like we've brought the Rubicon of anything that's even normal at this point. So now we've got the oil hasn't moved. Oil has not moved dramatically higher. So I guess that, right? Well, diesel prices in the US drop significantly on the news that we're going to halt exports for 90 days. Then other members of the White House came out and said, there's no way we're doing that. So we don't know where that stands. My guess is they're going to do it. You know, I like why not? And then White House was quoted. So Senator Grassley was quoted as saying that, you know, the oil companies are just charging too much for gas. Okay, so like price controls, like what are you suggesting? You know, again, like the level of insanity now that's coming out of this. I think the term is gouging, but I think Elizabeth Warren has a copy right patent on that term. So you're not allowed to do that as a Republican. So you're not allowed to say they're gouging. I thought that was a Democrat only in the White House. Look, I think we're 41 days away from the midterms. I mean, and we have a crisis of confidence. Like the markets are going to go through crisis of confidence and that will be felt most in the bond markets. I don't think the bond markets are going to love the fact that from from to lose the midterms. I just I can't imagine that they're going to be like, wow, that's great. Where are those, where are those bond buyers going? They just don't exist in the market anymore. Are they going somewhere else with their money? No, so first of all, the bond vigilante, the modern day bond vigilante are foreign governments, right? That's what's going on here. They need money to buy the, where do they go though? They don't buy, they buy energy. They buy energy. Okay. They just buy others, they buy other part of assets, not other financial products necessarily. No, that makes sense. Well, they just marginally need a higher rate to be in bonds, right? Get sort of like 5% was good yesterday. It's no longer acceptable as a, you know, as a number. Remember also, like as these yields go higher, right? Prices are going lower. And the people that hold these bonds are getting murdered, right? They're sitting on unrealized losses that are just beyond our scope to imagine in the many trillions and trillions of dollars, right? That's a problem. Like you, you glosses in the system are a problem. Yes, you can try to hide them with marked to maturity or whatever scam you come up with. But in the end, their losses, the money's not there. The money's gone. So next move from the Fed is another rate increase. Is that what we're saying? You know, we're up to 65%. But again, look at the two year, right? The two years calling for another, for three quarters of a point to a full point. And if you believe that the, the, the, the Fed rate, you know, matches the two year, then we're going, we're going up a point. The US fiscal year ends at the end of September. And I think our interest expense. I was just looking at the, the December contracts. And, you know, we're going, the odds are, we're going to be at four and a quarter percent in December. So that's two more high. Four and a quarter. Two more. We're going to make two more high. So let me, let's look out to January. That seems to be it. They're sort of saying two more right now, with, you know, a modest chance of three more. But yeah. But by March of next year, better than 50% chance we're above four and a half percent interest rates. Wow. Better than 60, almost 60% that were at four and a half percent interest rates. Wow. You know, but it's the interest expense, right? Like these numbers, like, it's just going to be off the charts. It's going to be 1.3 trillion this past year. Are we looking at two trillion next, like at some point, this whole thing becomes a joke, right? As of today, 26 cents of every dollar you give the government is going to pay interest. That's not to buy you better roads, not for Medicare, not for social security. It's just getting, it's going straight to bankers. Like consider that. And how much of that money goes directly to the Federal Reserve, who holds what, $6 trillion in US government debt? But it's literally a wealth transfer. Well, I don't want to blame Trump for all of it, but I think I can blame it. I can blame him for some of the Iran situation. I think people have lost confidence in this administration. That's what I think. I just, I don't think they trust, but, and forget Trump, I don't think they trust percent at all. Would you trust percent? I mean, I just, to me, he's not credible. Yeah, I was slamming him six months ago, and I remember when Scott Melker was like, what are you doing? Like, it was so mainstream to believe he was the adult in the room, right? And like it was so obvious to me that he just wasn't. He's not. Well, I wouldn't, I don't know if the connotation of you slamming Scott percent is really good. Well, that's a good point. I did not slam Scott percent. I was criticizing Scott percent. No, he's never slammed me, thank goodness. Now, I criticized to stop percent using words. I have to be very clear when we're bearing to Big Daddy Scott percent. This is Big Daddy, Bazooka. Yeah. I mean, look, this is a four, this is a four sigma move in the tenure. So you got, like you know what Var is, right? Like those farm models are getting absolutely smoked. You know, things can break. And, you know, like we don't know the rivitives positioning. Nobody knows what the fox's going on, but we could, I still believe we're going to wake up on a Friday morning. So, sockmark it. Sockmark it wakes up and cares at one point or no. I think we're going to wake up on a Saturday morning and find out all hell's broken loose. And then by Monday, the banks are open. That's what things can happen. I just think they're all in solvent, right? If you mark these, if you mark the banks to market, on what they hold, they're in solvent. From Bank of America to JP Morgan, every last one of them. Before we even start talking about insurance companies and all these other institutions. I mean, think, remember over in Europe, they were selling 50-year, 100-year paper when interest rates were zero. Who holds that shit? That shit's trading 25 cents on the dollar now. What is our buddy Luke Gromans saying these days? I haven't listened to Luke recently, but I know, you know, the last one I listen to, he was basically saying the same thing I'm saying. You know, you're going to wake up on Friday night, there's going to be a crisis. And by Monday morning, there's no banks. And they're going to give you stablecoins. And you'll take whatever they give you. Which, by the way, it's not good for Bitcoin holders. I mean, it's not, right? Like, it's bad for everybody. I mean, obviously Bitcoin. And I saw this one thing dark on the, you know, Iran War I, you know, the Gulf War. And I wasn't really a fan of the Gulf War, I got to tell you, but you know, they weren't this, this, this, this, the ex-person was making the point. The Gulf War was actually ended up being very beneficial, relative to this war. He said that this war is actually the reverse opposite of the Gulf War. And the guy's point was, if you look at the Gulf War, we came in and I think we suffered, you know, two, 300 casualties. I mean, I mean, that was around 160, 170, something like that, right? Yeah, 100, yeah, 100 something like that, right? And but we managed to push away a 250,000 person army out of Kuwait, right? And basically, you know, we cleaned up and I think the Europeans looked at that and they were like, okay, well, you kind of solved this big problem. And we don't, we actually can trust the US. The US is gonna clean up in the Middle East. And therefore, we don't have to, we really don't need to prioritize defense spending. But we also can, you know, the cost of trade routes and everything is not gonna go way down. And apparently the cost of ensuring these boats and everything, these tankers, you know, went way down and created all this wealth effect, right? Because you had all this free trade. And he goes, this war, it really said the exact opposite message because the message that this war sent was that Iran could beat the US, right? Iran could hold off the US, you know, despite Trump dumping half of his ammunition there, didn't matter, they can do the, and they can charge with Oman, apparently they're, they're insisting on charging a toll, right? And war moves. So, you know, the insurance costs on all those trades gonna go up forever. Nobody's ever gonna trust that US is gonna, you know, it's $1.2 million a day right now to ensure your vessel. One person's what though, it was it before, you know? 50,000, 25,000. So that's just gotta be a devastating thing for trade, right? Yeah. And, and, you know, as you know, supply chains are a complex system. And if it breaks and it's heading towards breaking, we don't know what that looks like. I still stand, remember what was about six months ago? You asked me, do you really think the dollar's gonna break this year and I said, yes, and you thought, you thought I was crazy, right? Now, I think we're up to about 20, 30% chance. Well, I still think you're crazy, but, but I think it's again, I still think you're, you're getting closer. Okay, you're, you're, you're crazy. I wouldn't say crazy, but I'd say a long shot. Yeah, well, I said 20 to 30. That means 70 to 80, that we don't. Okay. But again, these are like, you know, as, as, as people that analyze risk, you know, like, those are huge numbers. Don't, that's a massive amounts of risk that we did not need to take for no good reason. And it's also to your point about losing the war. It's why I'm so nervous that he's gonna use a nuke. You really think you could do it? Do I think you could? I think you could. Yeah, I think I mean, I just feel like if he does that, Russia will, Russia will be feel like why hasn't it? Let me just nuke, yeah, right? No, I mean, I think he'll use it. He could start if you start with nuke. I don't know where that ends. I don't know. Well, the Rand corporation's been modeling this out for decades, and they say it ends in bubble and thermonuclear war that that escalation ladder once it started can't stop. Fred, Divers, how far is this here? More credible now or less credible than when you first heard it? Well, I'm sorry, I didn't hear you broke up on the first part. I would just curious what Fred's take on your, your content at the bottom is here. Is it more credible and Fred, man? What's going on? Like, as a man, he's doing things in the same way. Pro credible. Curious what, if you've moved it all toward the outside. The house. Yeah, he said he has. I mean, it's, you have to. I mean, look, I think that when you say the dollar breaks, let's be clear, right? Because the euro is at 1.13. You know what I mean? Which is meaning. Yeah. Who cares what you have? Right, but I'm just saying the dollar breaks relative, what does that mean? OK, the bond market breaks. Yeah, the bond market's broken. To me, the bond market is bust. Not just our bond market, but all bond markets are busts, except for apparently China, which apparently is. Maybe I should be more clear. A global banking crisis. Not not a. A global banking crisis, I believe, is possible. Yeah, not contained. Uncontained. Uncontained banking crisis. I mean, I do think we have a debt crisis in general. We have a debt crisis, right? That's our problem. We have a global debt crisis. And the symptoms of it are the debt crisis.