STOCK MARKET TALK by Stocks On Spaces

to push it here for the next two weeks until we get past the midterms of probably not the smartest thing. And I just want to relax and you know I want to have optionality right. I never want the market to make decisions for me. So I cleared a lot of stuff off the table. Still I have half my space exposition but that's fine because it's a long term. So I'm just sitting in waiting right now. A lot of stuff is going on in the middle east way more than what's going on with just Iran and the US there's actually multiple battles slash wars over there right now there's potential for a pretty big civil war in the middle east. So just a lot of headwinds coming. So I think it's a good time you know if you're sitting on cash or if you're if you haven't been very aggressive last few weeks or months just to sit and wait you know I know people are trying to jump in at every pop in the AI names. They're trying to say okay that's it that's the bottom. Well we just keep getting progressively lower highs and you know I threw out some neat or some targets where I'd like to start selling puts on some of these names. I think Nebius said 135's and I ran about 15 and a half. People are laughing at me. All right maybe we'll see but they were laughing you know when Nebius went from 250 to you know 200. So I'm just sitting on a lot of dry powder and just really trying to be patient and wait for a very very fat pitch before I get involved in anything else. I still have my Oscar that's one of the positions I still have. It's having trouble getting stock talk up here. What do you think you're going to see on that fat pitch? I mean obviously is it just after the move happens and we have momentum in the market? Yeah I mean if there's one thing I think people should know about me it's like I don't think I'm smart enough to predict right so like you know like if thank you thank you it's just that's never softball I set up for Evan. So if there's going to be a move let's say there's a move from I don't know like 0 to 100 right I'm not interested in getting in on that move at 1 2 3 4 like I need to see some proof that that move is sustainable that it's not just a counter trend rally I'm fine in taking the move from 30 to 80 and then getting out of the way. I'm always looking at risk first so like I said a lot of things need to out of the way which is some of the earnings we have left to get through the FOMC I think is going to be big next week and really the the elections so what I'd love to see is I'd love to see just a massive rip lower like I'd really like to see this market rip off about 5 7 9% lower just fast ugly I think I think we are very near a spot where and I said this last time and the next day we heard about Leopold I think we're at a spot where someone's going to blow up again and if we find out that someone blows up again and it could be Leopold again that could be a short term catalyst but 500 500 million in options what an idiot yeah I mean so I'm just you know like I hate to say you know there there is this I'm sure 75% of the people on this space won't understand the reference but back in the 60s there was an obscenity trial where they where they were trying to sue Larry Flint for one of the magazines that he put out and they were trying to define what pornography was right and some you know a southern judge said I can't define it but I know it is when I see it right and that's kind of how I feel about the market like I don't know exactly what could or could happen but like when I see certain combinations of price action volume and news flow then then I'll know okay I have a better than average chance that this is a short term bottom I still'd be wrong so that's kind of where I'm positioning myself right now I know that reference Ted Lasso he says it in it oh does he okay it was also in the state against Larry Flint which was a movie out a few years ago here you go you'll never know what you like I said you'll never know what you learn on stocks on spaces stocks mostly for me though Evan right isn't that true mostly me right did you know do you know what country is the largest country in the world with a landlock the largest population country that's landlocked do you know it is Poland no it's actually Ethiopia oh interesting there you go oh right Ethiopia is landlocked yeah okay a little fun fact there stock talk you need fun facts and then all such initial reactions to the market today we'll go around the panel still but fun facts no give me some time to think on that but yeah no obviously really ugly in the markets in terms of most speculative stocks I raised what if 50% cash last week my portfolio update so today could have been really bad was not that bad because of the fact that I have half my portfolio and cash to good hedge on days like this obviously some of the stocks I have are going to hit today pretty hard V.O.V. is going to hit really hard today so is the M-Core but very muted day and overall performance because of that cash pile so that was timely obviously could have done it a week or so earlier and avoided some of the selling from last week but can't time everything perfectly but having that cash today is really really helpful the only things that are holding up well in my universe of coverage at least the stocks that I look at the tech universe are a lot of these software names so Dina Trace DT which we've owned now for several weeks has been holding up pretty well still in a 90 m a m attack had a really nice recovery these last couple days poked its head back about the moving averages is defending those moving averages today it's only down about 1.8% riskified RSKD that's been holding really well as well it's only down about a percent today defending the 90 m a economy which is active like shit or a compromise sorry and I've always mispronounced that exactly like shit in the last several weeks looks like it's attempting to bottom down here last couple sessions green is green today which is super surprising considering it's an AI stock and every single AI stock I'm looking at to getting killed but a compromise holding up today I've almost a percent and then there's a couple other software names that I don't own that I'm watching that are holding up pretty well and you obviously have staples doing well today you have regional banks doing well today home builders doing well today I don't have any exposure to those groups but those aren't doing well in this state the last couple weeks I thought you know there were some some signals we talked about this yesterday I think middle of September into the end of September it looked like we were getting a recovery not only on SMH but on a lot of AI hardware stocks that changed in early October very quickly when we had like 10 straight sessions 9 or 10 whatever it was straight sessions right in the SMH I thought that was a very very nasty fade especially considering the fact that we couldn't take out the all-time highs on SMH and then just got dumped like that so that's when I started raising material cash when we got that fade on SMH last week and again I'm not just saying there's been rions in my group butch because of my group I post portfolio updates every week I was 49 percent cash as of last Friday's update so I don't like seeing the market gate like this but it is better or at least feels better when you have a considerable amount of cash my pack cash file could even go up further into the into tomorrow depending on what the action looks like tomorrow look at some of these individual names just I was clicking through a lot of charts this morning they are just like almost beyond repair they've been beyond repair on the daily charts for some sort of some time now but you started looking at some of the higher time for it now on these individual AI stocks like even the weekly and monthly charts are starting to look like nasty so are we past the point of no return on some of these AI names probably are there going to be some of them that post monster reports this earnings season and make 20 25 percent moves to the upside yeah that's probably true too but I think it's going to be much much more difficult to get really clean upside moves on these broken charts for these individual AI stocks I think it's going to get more and more difficult to do that and I think there are like I said some AI adjacent software stocks that are acting really well like I mentioned those three that I own diadtrace mtek riskified those are acting really well in this tape there's also another one that I've been eyeing like a hawk that I don't own right now which is clear secure ticker why are you I think that that's acting pretty nicely you're consolidating underneath the 200 estimate so there are some stocks that I think are AI adjacent or are addressing some of the the developments in the industry over the last few months that aren't necessarily going to get you caught up in this hand over fist selling in AI hardware so I do think there are some long opportunities out there still even for tech investors but for the most part like I looked through I don't know 50 or 60 charts this morning they all look like shit and I'm talking about AI stock charts specifically I know there's stuff about what does that mean to you when they look like shit and like when did they come back like just break 200 day or I mean I mean no it's not just like it's not that simple it's not like just looking at the 200 estimate and saying are you below or above it no not that rudimentary but I mean some of these stocks most of them you know we're breaking down on the daily charts going back to July but you could flip up to those higher time frames look at the weekly or the monthly and you could sort of find some you know silver lining in the structure on those higher time frames you know after this half-ast recovery that some of these names made in mid-September and then got flush in the first two weeks of October it's just an nasty look you know it's a failure to reclaim the highs on a lot of these after a really low volume attempt to do so and then these things are just getting dumped back to the local lows so structurally they look terrible narratively then an AI narrative is obviously not favorable currently either so you have sediment driving these things down you've structural breakdowns making these things hard to buy and you have a lot of even outside of AI a lot of points of concern in the broader economic and geopolitical picture that are additional risks so yeah picture of equity doesn't look great right now and I'm I'm happy to be 50% cashier like I said I may even be a higher percentage of cash by the end of tomorrow depending on what the action looks like in the end of the week today today today's such a bad day that even after selling a lot of stuff my portfolio is down yep yep me too me too run I'm 50% cash and I'm still down like 1.2% today so I think I'm the only person that hasn't looked at their portfolio today I've been heavily cashed for a little bit here I'm near 60% so I'm really looking at deploy and I think you guys are hitting on a lot of important things here I think this market is flashing lots of real warning signs right the SMH is 640 broke today with power and that I'm sorry 540 and that's been a level it's been holding now firmly for the last couple months and you know seeing the semi is getting hit Google looks like hot death going into earnings next week you know Apple the safety names are doing good bonds everybody's like excited because bonds are moving up I'm like yeah but it's not because nobody cares it's a flight to safety at this point right yep that's right it's a flight to safety it's not a it's not moving up for the right reasons the correlation broke last week or the week before yeah well I think the correlation just switch right it switched away from the geopolitical noise and switch to the AI trade so I think there's still a correlation there I just think it's a different one than was there before um I think I think is holding last Friday's candle lows where the queue yeah I mean look the midway I'm giving you just a little bit of hope there yeah I mean the spy structure isn't terrible yeah right it's still in that consolidated range going back to to August so spy structure isn't like oh my god panic sell everything sort of there's no real major breakdown especially on the weekly and monthly charge for the SB 500 but um the queues start to look ugly and we got the first weekly close for the queues below the 21 week EMA on Friday last week and then today you're getting fall or not today this week you're getting fall through the downside same thing for SMH SMH first weekly close below the 21 week EMA on Friday all year SMH is defended that line all year long even in the selling going into March from February SMH defended that line defended it all the way up on the rally defended it from June through September and then gave it up last week for the first time and now you're seeing fall through the downside again on SMH this week so.