STOCK MARKET TALK - Full Transcript

Stocks On Spaces 56261 words en 2h 37m

AI Summary

股市大跌,苹果、Meta、英伟达等大型科技股与AI概念股集体下挫,主播逐一点评个人投资组合亏损并讨论CPI超预期与CoreWeave债务担忧。 - 主播的多个投资组合当日全线下挫:单一股票组合跌4%,ETF组合跌2.2%,IRA账户跌6%,AI组合跌2%,且其主动管理的组合表现均差于未主动管理的组合。 - 大盘普跌:QQQ跌2.3%,标普500跌1.4%,前30大纳指成分股ETF跌2.5%,大型权重股同样承压。 - 个股重创举例:苹果微涨,但Meta与英伟达各跌约3.5%,AMD跌6%,Robinhood跌8.9%,某股跌10%,TE跌至2.91美元;仅礼来、霍尼韦尔等少数标的收绿。 - 宏观数据:CPI同比3.7%,高于预期的3.6%,被解读为偏热,是当日下跌的触发因素之一。 - 嘉宾Evan认为CPI月度环比数据其实尚可,但成交量仅约3200万股、明显偏低,价格走势(SPY跌破8日/21日与50日均线且全天无反弹)仍需尊重。 - 当天最值得关注的是债市:债市在日内高点、股市在日内低点,两者明显背离;后续还要看PPI与零售销售数据。 - 谈及CoreWeave债务担忧:嘉宾直言其商业模式糟糕,预测市场显示其明年明确破产概率约17%,该股正遭猛烈抛售。 - 财报与消息面:银行股当日盘前率先发布财报,台积电次日早间公布业绩,ASML前夜已发财报,Netflix传出裁员。结论:在CPI偏热、成交量清淡且股债走势背离的背景下,应紧盯债市信号与PPI、零售销售及台积电财报,谨慎对待CoreWeave等高债务风险个股。

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everybody a little bit more settled in place one location what a terrible day in the stock market

though and I wonder if I'll be allowed to classify today as interesting we shall see but definitely

a red day in the stock market let's pull up my portfolios because we know that's what life is about

my eat and sexually do it this way what's up Mike sniper what's up logical today interesting

today shitty can I use that word my single stock is that what you did and then asked after

I mean I'm okay with it my single stock portfolio is down 4% today

single stock portfolio is down 4 ETF portfolio is down 2.2 the IRA is down 6

the AI is down 2 my but I'm getting mugged every portfolio that I picked

is performing worse than the ones that I don't manage

tell us you something I think at least about this market these my portfolio in this market

monotid might be back it's earning season we did have some of the banks report earnings this

morning that's what was going on there was fears over core weave and I'm hearing people talk

about the core weave debt and all the stuff there so I'm sure we'll talk about that conversation

if you other stuff going on but definitely a red day in the stock market qqq down by 2.3%

sb 500 down by 1.4% the ETF I have of mega cap names top 30 NASDAQ names is down by 2.5%

so the bigger names are also underperforming my single stock portfolio TE getting wrecked again

there you go apple a little bit green but besides that meta is down 3.5

in video down 3.5 L.A.U down 10 that's not fun everything down across the board for anyone wondering

TE is now a $2.91 stock AMD down 6 Robinhood down 8.9

any interest in Robinhood we'll see Eli Lilly is one of the few green names Honeywell as well

a tiny bit of green tempis AI I also not read today logical if I call today interesting would I

get the same pushback I think today was an interesting day for sure if you get that one bro

there we go plus one score good way to start the space um we lost our asml was earnings last night

I know wasn't just banks we have Taiwan semi pretty much reporting earnings tomorrow morning as well

still some stuff going on Netflix doing some layoffs other things as well we got the CPI data which

came in a little bit hot 3.7% as well it was reported 3.6 as well was expected Merkettin seems

like that we're gonna say Mike how you doing sir oh monotiff Mike Mike I don't want to hear you

I'd rather be a monotiff oh you're killing me running okay yeah what's that monotiff how you doing sir

you should have just run the bill for the whole week today yesterday I did ring the closing

belt for the stock market tomorrow some of my huge things for the whole week they're they're claiming

that this move is because of me and it might be it might be I don't know but I I was in the now

as that building yesterday I appreciate you for coming back here hanging out monotiff hope wherever

the vacation or whatever was good you back or you're just here for earnings season back he's back all

right now I now we'll go to uh mr. options Mike and get into it but I appreciate you being back

monotiff should give uh dynamics a follow what's up Evan how you doing sir I am uh I'm doing it's uh

yeah I don't quite get this down moves today um the CPI number was

1.1% higher on your year and core but month over a month was fine and so weird little reactions

it's a very you know this is where you have to kind of weigh price action versus volume and there's no

volume here right where 32 million shares it's 3 10 in the afternoon almost but you know you have

to respect that the spy cut through the 8 to 21 and the 50 day here and we're on the lows and there's

been no bounces today so where's this all going what's this mean I don't know I mean I look at this

and say we got ppi to mar with retail sales we'll see how that handles that and uh the bond market

is interesting to me the most interesting thing today about this market is the bond market the bond

market is bonds are highs of the day whereas the market is lows of the day and we have completely

detached ourselves and the people talking about this core we've debt yields and stuff is that's

something you look at as well or you're just more like the on yields in general um so 20 year 30

year I will tell you I think core weaves a crap company I've told you this is the worst garbage

but listen I mean that that's going up it seems to be closer to pricing in something happening

ish I mean not quite there but listen there's a polymarket market that I was looking at and there's

like a 17% chance in a clear bankruptcy next year is what it was price again yeah I mean core

we've has core we've had just so much debt it's a very I mean they're they're businesses a tough

business we've never seen this work really well so you know I think you know we talked about this

I've talked about this before I just don't like their business model um so yeah core we've

getting hammered but you know look at look at bond you look at bonds bonds are highs to the day yields

are lows the day and yet the market keeps dropping I mean there's something really weird going on

here the vix is up but it hasn't gone nuts um I don't know apple held in today apples of safety name

I don't know I just don't have a strong feeling here I think bank reports were okay they weren't

great they weren't bad and you know banks are down but they're not out jpean we're going to have a nice

bounce back today um I don't know I made two trades today I traded apple made some money and I'm

sitting in a very few spy calls which are not doing well and honestly I think here is I think any

dip here is viable and I think especially the dip in the semis you know if you look at the SMH's

they lost a 50 day with power today and we're seeing some big down ticks micron is getting

absolutely destroyed today um video is down but not out but down and well under the 50 day AMD all

all the way back just under yesterday's low I think I think these are where like viable dips

that we're going to have into the end of the year I don't think anything's changed with my thesis

options like I just got to say though man you said we lost the 50 day with power and you think

that's a viable dip I just disagree with that because there's no volume right so for me when you

lose the 50 day and you have we're at like 8 million shares today on the SMH when you lose

when you lose if gap down under it when you lose it with you know two times normal volume that's

a problem when you lose it with average volume we're a little bit more I don't know I don't think

it's a huge issue this feels like orderly selling I don't know yeah orderly selling that's exactly it

yeah I'll wait all we for you to finish it I'll go I don't have much else I mean for me here personally

I think that this is a viable dip that we're going to get a rally here I think part of the problem

it's what's going on with the administration and the manager charge and the market has lost faith in

him and believes he's going to lose the midterms and I think that's part of what you're seeing

quite up and all this that nothing's changing and things can seem to be expensive and I think

this is just kind of a reflection of that and I hate bringing politics into this but sometimes

you have to go ahead yeah I'm going to respectfully disagree with mostly everything you said

I think today's action is very important and I think that the core we've news and you had like

an analyst from DA Davidson basically come out and say that equity could be a zero I think that's

the bigger problem I think that the bond yields hitting 15% yesterday which is essentially a thousand

bips spread 10% spread between you know the risk free rate that takes you into distressed territory

so that's what bond investors are saying good back you back up a second let's go back to core we

core we've had one of the worst business models that we know of on Wall Street we've seen this before

their business model sucks so I don't think that's a big problem for the market overall it's a problem

for them I disagree with that I think it's more indicative of the contagion that's the issue it's

like a me it's like what's the company that was selling office space back and then we had the pandemic

help me out they're public we work we work thank you very much the same type of I don't think that's

the same at all the I trade exactly the same I mean exactly I mean come on man selling office space

versus the AI story and the data center build up it's not about what you're selling to it's about

the debt you'd load you take on and the minimal return to get your investment and they have the same

problem if the okay if core we've which has the probably biggest scale of all of the Neo clouds

is entering distress territory what does that signal about the rest of the Neo clouds that's why

they are all also down they have a very similar business model think core we was probably the most

levered for their expected negative free cash flow and that that's the issue is that in my view

you know capital is drying up and you're seeing that because bond investors are wanting a higher yield

to fund their build out and so this entire thing only works if there's more and more capital to

pour into this trade if core we've is unable to get capital why would iron why would everything else

so I think the issue is more to do with the the market is saying this is unsustainable

and we can't continue to fund this and even had JP Morgan with the headline yesterday saying that

like they only think there was a recently very large bond deal done and they got minimal exposure to

it so look I think it's let me tell you why I think it's important you saw yield spike this morning

on the inflation data that was the right thing to happen right like that that sounds that makes sense

though I did see a lot of people you know basically because we've come in

lower inflation than estimates for some of the last months I saw a lot of people say you know

inflation is most likely going to come in under today the inflation story it ticked up and a lot

of that was due to gasoline so obviously oil prices are hurting us so you know inflation up yields

up that makes sense but look at yields now they fell all the way back down and to me that's signaling

to you I don't want to say I don't I don't say this to say I necessarily agree with what I'm about

to say next but I think what that signals to you is that they are concerned about contagion

they're concerned that there could be a slowdown in the AI buildouts that's what investors are

expecting like that there will be a slowdown in the buildout because it's unsustainable and there's

not enough capital and if that's the case when you look at the GDP growth it is if we did not

have the AI story then GDP would contract and on a real basis would go to negative territory

so I think that the yields are telling you that this is a recession trade now and I hate to say those

words but that's what it is if you kill the if the AI trade on wines or falls apart

pick your terminology right I agree with there this market and the economy is certain right I

wanted to use different word but I myself in I think you're right about that right the only thing

holding this economy up and the markets or the AI trade if that was to collapse we have massive

problems you're you you are word and whatever you want to go there you're right so yeah that's what it

is and again like I think this is overdone yeah this is overdone today I've been doing this for

25 years I think it's overdone maybe I would take the other side of that bet I think that the

the weakness is finally getting to the index I think my first signs that there was something more

nefarious a foot is the fact that you had breath completely collapse over the recent weeks right over

the last two months you had RSP and IWM way down some people kept pointing to the RSP as look it's

bouncing you know there's some breath expansion maybe there's gonna be a recovery and breath

but I view the IWM even though people will be like oh that's not how this works I look at the IWM

as more of a risk on metric because if the small caps are working then this should work but without

bond yields coming down for whatever reason they haven't worked and actually a lot of stocks have

continued to make new lows so the two options and we've been pretty clear is it's binary either the

breath catches up to the index or the index catches down to breath and I think now you're opening

the door for and again when breath could not catch a sustainable bid for the last two weeks now

you're opening the door to the index to catch down to breath and yeah I just think that this

story is a lot bigger because there's a ton of counterparty risk on these bonds if people start

getting nervous about all the debt that's been issued and all the capitals and that's at stake

I think that can have a real fear contagion aspect to it you know whether we agree with it or not

you're seeing it in the in the yields of those bonds so it's it's just a bigger problem I don't think

that this is a viable dip yet but by yield rally all day long they're high to the day we're not talking

about the treasury yields right uh wait what are we talking about here because I'm looking at bonds

bonds you're talking about treasury bonds so you're seeing the bonds rally that's not a good thing

because there's like and I made a post about this it's like your first order of thinking is oh you

know yields are down this is a good thing your second order of thinking is oh it's a

flight to safety maybe but or not but I mean yeah I just like to say to you it's a flight to safety

is the issue that's the point I kind of disagree with you here I think I think there is a worry here

but I think I do think you still have to look at volume on a day like today and yes it's their first

1% down day in 53 days which is the longest period we've gone like X amount of years I don't remember it

but hey you know um shouldn't you shouldn't you shouldn't you just yeah but here's a question right like

isn't like you're you're using that the indexes at highs to you know support the claim that

you know the market's still on good footing but I would use that I would point to that and say

that's the risk in the market is that the indexes still at highs like I saw people yesterday posting

you know be fearful while others are or be greedy while others are fearful and then so when

else quote-tweeted it's saying the FTX is 1% off all time by the way so it's like there's no real fear

there's no there's no fear in this market we are in the most bullish time of year right November and

a midterm election year is the best I'm sorry October's the best month of the year in November's

the second one best it's historically a bullish time of year and everybody wants to take the

selection to get bearish and I'm like what about 2018 but 2018 but you have enough

yeah but you have I mean it's a similar situation right to yeah because remember but 2018

rallied hard is the end of the year before it fell apart in January we had a huge rally

into the end of the year and then we fell apart I don't I don't read into this my friend I

I I I I was a great debate so by the way I love this I'm not picking on you I don't mean it

if I'm coming across that way I'm not trying to I just I think I just think that we actually

I'm gonna let's me speak because I but we actually we actually corrected into the end of the year we

didn't rally I think it was like the December meeting where they reversed course and that's what

they called the taper tantrum so I'm just saying that yields rates were going up in Q4 2018 that's

why we had a correction in equity markets so you know I wouldn't just count like I wouldn't just

look at seasonality I would kind of read the room I don't think I have to always read seasonality so

yeah you do it I just think you do it but it's not a it's not about the actual thing yeah but yeah

exactly you have to put it with everything I think that if I was to put like on a scale or

season only 4 million shares at 320 for something in the afternoon on a down day like this we would

typically be doing a hundred to a hundred two hundred million shares a day and we're not getting

that volume I think you think of breath we're still in the same range we're just range bound there's

nothing's changed here until we break a range nothing changed here for me Brian you got any thoughts

I would actually like to hear I not want to hear Brian he's attitude is a

monitor has had his hand up and I wanted to go to monitor I couldn't see I want to hear

monitor too so there you go I want to hear him yeah I don't want to hear a monitor but that's

final speak so just going back on Corey look this this is a problem this is a canary in a coal mine

and there is a lot hiding behind it and it is not just Corey that's going to have this problem it

might be the first it might be even the worst but there's a lot going on here that is common to

almost any of any of the GPU resellers outside of the outside of the big three let's say I put

you on article in this mix to some extent credit is just the first issue for the longest time

they've been skating on one single fact that irrespective of price increases across the board

on everything that they've done cost increases rather on everything that they have

in terms of their input they have been given a pass because of their ability to keep increasing

prices the unit realization for them GPU has been going up and I don't think that's going to stay

that way for long especially as we have more capacity come in in very large quantities in the next

few quarters that pricing power is going to decrease and potentially at some point in time go

away where it becomes buyers market once you take that off the equation then everybody who has

shaky financials is you know on a road to ruin you know at different levels the interestingly I

don't think the the Bitcoin miners turned turned new clouds have the same problem because they

are mostly just leasing their facilities and you know fewer of them are actually you know throwing

their own money into building out GPU clusters so so as long as they are doing it light I think they

are going to be fine but but but new cloud especially Corvieve right because it has so much direct

exposure to to Nvidia it's going to be interesting what Nvidia does if things get far worse they have

a lot of product credits sitting with them for the next I think seven ten years or so something like

that and there's a lot of their backlog that's tied to you know Corvieve's order so so it's going

to be a mess for Nvidia so it remains to be seen what they do but I don't think this remains here

these knock on effects go across the board to the entire AI space you know Corvieve's got contracts

either in place or you know waiting for you know power delivery substations you know

the works all of the electrical the edge networking you know call it what you will

every one of those will have to start adjusting their backlog or at least putting a risk on the far

out backlog especially from Corvieve but to some extent everybody else so I don't think this

stops there now this might this might not get worse and it might it might fade away slowly but

if we do get large capacity come on stream I think the economics of the neo-cloud business is

gone to hell and and I believe that across the board it's not just Corvieve I think none of them can

survive competition direct competition on price with any of the hyper scalars this just they

just cannot play that game so so in that sense I think this is a big problem it's still early I mean

this could be contained but I have my doubts and I don't like where this is I have zero exposure

to neo-cloud again I said it yesterday I didn't participate on the upside because I didn't trust

this business model and I'm being proven right not that you know I gave up all that potential profit

but looks like you know what I expected in the first place is coming through now so and I wouldn't touch

it here I'm not there is no number there that's there's no level there that I would buy any of these

neo-clouds it's they have 30 billion of net depth today on like a sub 40 billion dollar market cap

and they're projected you know this year they're doing 37 billion of catbacks the next couple

of years are going to you know do basically the same the only way that they fund these things

is through early prepayments on contracts but if you're an equity investor in these at what point

you actually see a return on like your investment because all of that money is going to go back to

the services for those prepayment dollars I mean people are quoting these 60% even a margin

businesses but in even others the word interest depreciation amortization those are very real costs

so on a profitability profitability basis they're they're very low returns and then on top of that you

have this huge debt load and then you're going to take on a lot more debt load because you're not

even able to drop

profits anytime soon.

So just, it's not, I think, you know,

I've had some bearish posts on this.

It's not so much that I'm saying this thing

is bankrupt tomorrow or next year or ever.

It's more about what is the equity truly worth?

And, you know, I think people get confused

because someone could end up buying the core we've business,

but for pennies on the dollar

because the equity is not worth much.

And I think the impairment of the equity

is the bigger concern.

So, and that's not just the core we've,

but it could be for a lot of these things.

Again, it's, they're able to survive on the upswing

because there's just on-step flow of capital

is so many people trying to get exposure to this thing.

But as soon as the yields start going up,

and again, people misunderstand that when the bond yield

is at 15%, that's on their unsecured notes.

It's not like they're, that's like the second market.

It's like, you know, it's a secondary market.

It's not that their current debt is at 15%,

that's not what that means.

It just means that that's how much investors

are expecting to get in return to fund them.

And of course, they can get other funding

with contract backed funding at lower interest rates.

Sure. Yeah, I get it.

But the access to capital is severely limited

in a business that is extremely capital intensive.

So if they don't keep getting more capital,

how do they keep it going?

I don't want to say it's a Ponzi scheme,

but it kind of operates like one.

You're taking money from here and then like

paying back old investors through the services

and it just keeps going.

But if the capital dries up,

that's where you get into a sticky place.

So, and I think those bond yields are kind of telling you

that their access to capital is very limited now.

And Mike, you know, you said it's a Bible dip look.

I mean, we went straight down for seven days

and you could catch our bounce here.

You can get a bounce here.

I'm not saying you can't get a bounce here, but.

I just think this whole core we think is overdone.

I hear you guys and I'm listening.

I'm like, I don't believe the AI trade.

Are we making the implication?

I just, I'm joining the way.

Are we making the implication here

that core we've is the reason that we're now for it?

I'm not.

So I think it definitely is part of it.

My friend.

I mean, I think we don't think it's fine.

We were definitely down because of inflation print earlier,

but okay, stock talk.

Interst rates went up this morning.

The 10 year yield went up over 5.3

and then it fell in a straight line.

Yeah, that's true.

So the inflation print caused yields to spike.

So for that reason, I agree that the early weakness

in the day was likely caused by the inflation printing hot.

But what caused the yields to come right back down

within hours of the inflation print?

To me, that has to do with a potential investors

considering a slowdown in the AI trade

because it feels unsustainable.

You had a DEV at the analyst come out today

and basically say that, you know,

core we've definitely could be worth very little.

Yeah, go ahead.

I'll interrupt.

We're about to hear from a thropic

at some point in the next six hours on their financials,

which can change everything in a heartbeat

because anthropic would not be going public

in less than a month

if their finances were in shape.

I still, I don't, yeah, I hear you.

I think given that their IPOs in 30 days,

I don't think that they're going to come out

and say anything negative,

but are we getting to a point where investors

are starting to shrug that information off?

Because I mean, I don't think they are.

I think it's just a bullet.

I feel like this is a sign up in the market

where we're allowing companies to just IPO

at $2 trillion dollar valuations, Willie Nilly,

and we're just supposed to expect like,

I had, there were people like really tweeting out that

like, oh, yeah, they have $415 billion in commitments.

They have $100 billion in ARR,

which we talked about how open source

can eat their market share,

others can, it's a competitive environment.

Fine, let's say they have $100 billion in ARR,

and they have $63 billion of annual compute commitments.

That's like people are sitting here telling you,

like yeah, of course, they can easily,

you know, this makes a ton of sense.

It's like, dude, that's $63 billion

before they have any other expenses.

We're talking about nothing else.

We're not talking about catbacks,

we're not talking about.

But it's one top-back.

It's a chaos.

Oh, dude, it's $2 trillion.

I was the entire AI trade is based on anthropic.

Everyone is, I mean, okay.

But I'm just saying,

if this company is gonna operate at those kinds of margins,

and they're currently very unprofitable,

like, how do we assign a $2 trillion valuation to it?

I'm just saying, at what point does it start to get

a little wobbly?

Stocks are like, let's hear it from you, man.

I mean, do I think that the core-weave thing

is a problem?

Yeah, I think core-weave is toxic equity,

and I think the statement made by

David's in this morning is probably accurate.

He says it's a zero if there is a genuine momentum

in the AI trade.

I don't even think that that's a crazy thing to say.

But I think today is just strong.

The camel's back action.

You have way too much weight on this market now.

The last thing you need is

core inflation printing on a month over month basis

at 0.3% running at 3.4 annualized versus 2.7 annualized

as of the last print.

Today's inflation print was a lot harder

than it looked on the surface.

On the surface, it just looked like a 0.1% beat

on the monthly numbers and the core monthly numbers

way hotter than it looks on the surface.

So I think people are looking at the AI trade now,

and looking at the broader market too,

today we're seeing it bleed over to the indexes, right?

And today's action is not isolated AI stocks.

You have the queues down 2%.

You have a lot of software names today too, by the way.

IGV is down 3%.

Software is acted as a rotational relief valve

for people who want to stay in tech and get out of AI.

That is not how it's operating today.

I mean, there are a handful of software names that are up.

I'm not saying every single software names down.

And the software names in my portfolio

are acting more resilient than the hardware names certainly.

But you're getting pretty broad-based selling today.

And I think this is just strong, the camel's back action.

I think eventually stuff that the market rushes off

starts to matter when you have a massive piling up

of negative information.

And I think that's what we're seeing today.

Can I ask you?

So then look, let's go back to yields spike

on the inflation print and then immediately fell.

My original thought was if there's

contagion in the AI growth trajectory, right?

And there's a slowdown in the AI trade,

that could weigh on GDP estimates.

So people are, whether I agree with it or not,

they are signaling a recession trade.

Yeah, I agree with that.

Look at Dollar Tree today.

You'll see Dollar Tree today?

No, I haven't.

Dollar Tree is ripping.

Oh, there you go.

So, and there's another thing that I think you do bring up

a good point about the CPI print.

What if the original reaction is yields up on hot inflation?

But when you drill into the numbers,

you saw a lot of that increase in CPI

was due to higher oil, higher gas prices.

And there's a lot of data historically

that whenever you get an energy shock

like the one we've seen,

you typically do get a recession in the next 12 months.

I wonder if it could be a little bit of both happening here.

Both the AI trade and the higher oil,

higher energy affecting consumers.

It could be a little bit for sure.

Yeah, I mean, I think you're getting closer to a scenario

where I don't know about a recession,

but I think that you're getting closer to a scenario

where a market crash may solve a lot of problems.

I know that sounds like shitty,

but market like a just a hard rug pull in the market

might solve a lot of problems.

It might bring inflation down.

It might capsize some of the AI spending.

It might bring valuations down to a more reasonable level

where fundamental institutions can put real bids

under these stocks.

It might solve a lot of problems.

I'm not saying that's what's gonna happen,

but a market crash could be

a pretty excellent relief valve based on where we are.

I don't like putting predictions out there

six, nine months in the future

as far as a recession goes.

I don't think you're far off base.

I don't think what you're saying is ridiculous.

I don't think that it's ridiculous

to start speculating on that,

but the economy's still really strong.

And it's difficult for me to make that leap,

but from an equity standpoint,

yeah, I mean, to me,

this has been one of the hardest markets

I've traded in my life

in terms of individual stock picking

over the last several months,

but it's starting to feel like more than that now.

It's starting to feel like the momentum soft that we had,

which was the worst momentum soft in history

in June, July and August, by far, by the way,

there's nothing close to the type of momentum soft

that we've seen, not even in the dot-com bubble.

Just on a data basis, that's not my opinion.

That's just what the data says.

If you look at Jeffery's tech momentum index,

you look at Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs,

anyone's momentum index, you can see the data yourself.

But I think we just have way too many factors

at play right now for the market to be able to juggle

incremental shifts in any of these industries.

And that's a really difficult environment to operate in

for all market participants.

And I said, thank you for your seeing that being reflected today.

And finally, bleed over to the indexes

for the first time in a while.

Now, the S&P 500 and the QQQs still intact

on their weekly charts?

Yep, they are, in spite of this.

And so, to Mike's point earlier,

I don't think Mike's up here anymore.

You are still trading in a range of the indexes.

He is right about that.

And we have not broken, we've not like broken down

on the major indexes.

So it's difficult to get two bearish here.

And maybe it is the right thing to do.

But in the status quo, it's difficult to get two bearish

on an index standpoint.

But I do think that enough data has come out now.

We got the CPI print as well to say that inflation

is a problem.

Geopolitical situation is a problem.

The valuations of AI companies, especially

the frontier labs is a problem.

The credit spreads, for basically all AI related debt core

weave is the poster child of it.

But look at the credit spreads for Oracle as well.

I mean, let's not pretend that those have been good.

And those are continued to blow out.

You look at the, any of the CDS swaps,

if you want to look at them across AI infrastructure,

all the way down to any of the internal borrowing

that's happened, they all suck.

So credit risk is exploding.

Yes, yields might be topping out here.

They've acted like it.

The tenure in 30 year acting like yields might be topping out

here, but yields have become less of a problem now.

They're at absolute levels where, yeah, they matter.

They're north to 5%.

But that's far less is what driving the market down now

in my opinion.

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