STOCK MARKET TALK by Stocks On Spaces

everybody a little bit more settled in place one location what a terrible day in the stock market though and I wonder if I'll be allowed to classify today as interesting we shall see but definitely a red day in the stock market let's pull up my portfolios because we know that's what life is about my eat and sexually do it this way what's up Mike sniper what's up logical today interesting today shitty can I use that word my single stock is that what you did and then asked after I mean I'm okay with it my single stock portfolio is down 4% today single stock portfolio is down 4 ETF portfolio is down 2.2 the IRA is down 6 the AI is down 2 my but I'm getting mugged every portfolio that I picked is performing worse than the ones that I don't manage tell us you something I think at least about this market these my portfolio in this market monotid might be back it's earning season we did have some of the banks report earnings this morning that's what was going on there was fears over core weave and I'm hearing people talk about the core weave debt and all the stuff there so I'm sure we'll talk about that conversation if you other stuff going on but definitely a red day in the stock market qqq down by 2.3% sb 500 down by 1.4% the ETF I have of mega cap names top 30 NASDAQ names is down by 2.5% so the bigger names are also underperforming my single stock portfolio TE getting wrecked again there you go apple a little bit green but besides that meta is down 3.5 in video down 3.5 L.A.U down 10 that's not fun everything down across the board for anyone wondering TE is now a $2.91 stock AMD down 6 Robinhood down 8.9 any interest in Robinhood we'll see Eli Lilly is one of the few green names Honeywell as well a tiny bit of green tempis AI I also not read today logical if I call today interesting would I get the same pushback I think today was an interesting day for sure if you get that one bro there we go plus one score good way to start the space um we lost our asml was earnings last night I know wasn't just banks we have Taiwan semi pretty much reporting earnings tomorrow morning as well still some stuff going on Netflix doing some layoffs other things as well we got the CPI data which came in a little bit hot 3.7% as well it was reported 3.6 as well was expected Merkettin seems like that we're gonna say Mike how you doing sir oh monotiff Mike Mike I don't want to hear you I'd rather be a monotiff oh you're killing me running okay yeah what's that monotiff how you doing sir you should have just run the bill for the whole week today yesterday I did ring the closing belt for the stock market tomorrow some of my huge things for the whole week they're they're claiming that this move is because of me and it might be it might be I don't know but I I was in the now as that building yesterday I appreciate you for coming back here hanging out monotiff hope wherever the vacation or whatever was good you back or you're just here for earnings season back he's back all right now I now we'll go to uh mr. options Mike and get into it but I appreciate you being back monotiff should give uh dynamics a follow what's up Evan how you doing sir I am uh I'm doing it's uh yeah I don't quite get this down moves today um the CPI number was 1.1% higher on your year and core but month over a month was fine and so weird little reactions it's a very you know this is where you have to kind of weigh price action versus volume and there's no volume here right where 32 million shares it's 3 10 in the afternoon almost but you know you have to respect that the spy cut through the 8 to 21 and the 50 day here and we're on the lows and there's been no bounces today so where's this all going what's this mean I don't know I mean I look at this and say we got ppi to mar with retail sales we'll see how that handles that and uh the bond market is interesting to me the most interesting thing today about this market is the bond market the bond market is bonds are highs of the day whereas the market is lows of the day and we have completely detached ourselves and the people talking about this core we've debt yields and stuff is that's something you look at as well or you're just more like the on yields in general um so 20 year 30 year I will tell you I think core weaves a crap company I've told you this is the worst garbage but listen I mean that that's going up it seems to be closer to pricing in something happening ish I mean not quite there but listen there's a polymarket market that I was looking at and there's like a 17% chance in a clear bankruptcy next year is what it was price again yeah I mean core we've has core we've had just so much debt it's a very I mean they're they're businesses a tough business we've never seen this work really well so you know I think you know we talked about this I've talked about this before I just don't like their business model um so yeah core we've getting hammered but you know look at look at bond you look at bonds bonds are highs to the day yields are lows the day and yet the market keeps dropping I mean there's something really weird going on here the vix is up but it hasn't gone nuts um I don't know apple held in today apples of safety name I don't know I just don't have a strong feeling here I think bank reports were okay they weren't great they weren't bad and you know banks are down but they're not out jpean we're going to have a nice bounce back today um I don't know I made two trades today I traded apple made some money and I'm sitting in a very few spy calls which are not doing well and honestly I think here is I think any dip here is viable and I think especially the dip in the semis you know if you look at the SMH's they lost a 50 day with power today and we're seeing some big down ticks micron is getting absolutely destroyed today um video is down but not out but down and well under the 50 day AMD all all the way back just under yesterday's low I think I think these are where like viable dips that we're going to have into the end of the year I don't think anything's changed with my thesis options like I just got to say though man you said we lost the 50 day with power and you think that's a viable dip I just disagree with that because there's no volume right so for me when you lose the 50 day and you have we're at like 8 million shares today on the SMH when you lose when you lose if gap down under it when you lose it with you know two times normal volume that's a problem when you lose it with average volume we're a little bit more I don't know I don't think it's a huge issue this feels like orderly selling I don't know yeah orderly selling that's exactly it yeah I'll wait all we for you to finish it I'll go I don't have much else I mean for me here personally I think that this is a viable dip that we're going to get a rally here I think part of the problem it's what's going on with the administration and the manager charge and the market has lost faith in him and believes he's going to lose the midterms and I think that's part of what you're seeing quite up and all this that nothing's changing and things can seem to be expensive and I think this is just kind of a reflection of that and I hate bringing politics into this but sometimes you have to go ahead yeah I'm going to respectfully disagree with mostly everything you said I think today's action is very important and I think that the core we've news and you had like an analyst from DA Davidson basically come out and say that equity could be a zero I think that's the bigger problem I think that the bond yields hitting 15% yesterday which is essentially a thousand bips spread 10% spread between you know the risk free rate that takes you into distressed territory so that's what bond investors are saying good back you back up a second let's go back to core we core we've had one of the worst business models that we know of on Wall Street we've seen this before their business model sucks so I don't think that's a big problem for the market overall it's a problem for them I disagree with that I think it's more indicative of the contagion that's the issue it's like a me it's like what's the company that was selling office space back and then we had the pandemic help me out they're public we work we work thank you very much the same type of I don't think that's the same at all the I trade exactly the same I mean exactly I mean come on man selling office space versus the AI story and the data center build up it's not about what you're selling to it's about the debt you'd load you take on and the minimal return to get your investment and they have the same problem if the okay if core we've which has the probably biggest scale of all of the Neo clouds is entering distress territory what does that signal about the rest of the Neo clouds that's why they are all also down they have a very similar business model think core we was probably the most levered for their expected negative free cash flow and that that's the issue is that in my view you know capital is drying up and you're seeing that because bond investors are wanting a higher yield to fund their build out and so this entire thing only works if there's more and more capital to pour into this trade if core we've is unable to get capital why would iron why would everything else so I think the issue is more to do with the the market is saying this is unsustainable and we can't continue to fund this and even had JP Morgan with the headline yesterday saying that like they only think there was a recently very large bond deal done and they got minimal exposure to it so look I think it's let me tell you why I think it's important you saw yield spike this morning on the inflation data that was the right thing to happen right like that that sounds that makes sense though I did see a lot of people you know basically because we've come in lower inflation than estimates for some of the last months I saw a lot of people say you know inflation is most likely going to come in under today the inflation story it ticked up and a lot of that was due to gasoline so obviously oil prices are hurting us so you know inflation up yields up that makes sense but look at yields now they fell all the way back down and to me that's signaling to you I don't want to say I don't I don't say this to say I necessarily agree with what I'm about to say next but I think what that signals to you is that they are concerned about contagion they're concerned that there could be a slowdown in the AI buildouts that's what investors are expecting like that there will be a slowdown in the buildout because it's unsustainable and there's not enough capital and if that's the case when you look at the GDP growth it is if we did not have the AI story then GDP would contract and on a real basis would go to negative territory so I think that the yields are telling you that this is a recession trade now and I hate to say those words but that's what it is if you kill the if the AI trade on wines or falls apart pick your terminology right I agree with there this market and the economy is certain right I wanted to use different word but I myself in I think you're right about that right the only thing holding this economy up and the markets or the AI trade if that was to collapse we have massive problems you're you you are word and whatever you want to go there you're right so yeah that's what it is and again like I think this is overdone yeah this is overdone today I've been doing this for 25 years I think it's overdone maybe I would take the other side of that bet I think that the the weakness is finally getting to the index I think my first signs that there was something more nefarious a foot is the fact that you had breath completely collapse over the recent weeks right over the last two months you had RSP and IWM way down some people kept pointing to the RSP as look it's bouncing you know there's some breath expansion maybe there's gonna be a recovery and breath but I view the IWM even though people will be like oh that's not how this works I look at the IWM as more of a risk on metric because if the small caps are working then this should work but without bond yields coming down for whatever reason they haven't worked and actually a lot of stocks have continued to make new lows so the two options and we've been pretty clear is it's binary either the breath catches up to the index or the index catches down to breath and I think now you're opening the door for and again when breath could not catch a sustainable bid for the last two weeks now you're opening the door to the index to catch down to breath and yeah I just think that this story is a lot bigger because there's a ton of counterparty risk on these bonds if people start getting nervous about all the debt that's been issued and all the capitals and that's at stake I think that can have a real fear contagion aspect to it you know whether we agree with it or not you're seeing it in the in the yields of those bonds so it's it's just a bigger problem I don't think that this is a viable dip yet but by yield rally all day long they're high to the day we're not talking about the treasury yields right uh wait what are we talking about here because I'm looking at bonds bonds you're talking about treasury bonds so you're seeing the bonds rally that's not a good thing because there's like and I made a post about this it's like your first order of thinking is oh you know yields are down this is a good thing your second order of thinking is oh it's a flight to safety maybe but or not but I mean yeah I just like to say to you it's a flight to safety is the issue that's the point I kind of disagree with you here I think I think there is a worry here but I think I do think you still have to look at volume on a day like today and yes it's their first 1% down day in 53 days which is the longest period we've gone like X amount of years I don't remember it but hey you know um shouldn't you shouldn't you shouldn't you just yeah but here's a question right like isn't like you're you're using that the indexes at highs to you know support the claim that you know the market's still on good footing but I would use that I would point to that and say that's the risk in the market is that the indexes still at highs like I saw people yesterday posting you know be fearful while others are or be greedy while others are fearful and then so when else quote-tweeted it's saying the FTX is 1% off all time by the way so it's like there's no real fear there's no there's no fear in this market we are in the most bullish time of year right November and a midterm election year is the best I'm sorry October's the best month of the year in November's the second one best it's historically a bullish time of year and everybody wants to take the selection to get bearish and I'm like what about 2018 but 2018 but you have enough yeah but you have I mean it's a similar situation right to yeah because remember but 2018 rallied hard is the end of the year before it fell apart in January we had a huge rally into the end of the year and then we fell apart I don't I don't read into this my friend I I I I I was a great debate so by the way I love this I'm not picking on you I don't mean it if I'm coming across that way I'm not trying to I just I think I just think that we actually I'm gonna let's me speak because I but we actually we actually corrected into the end of the year we didn't rally I think it was like the December meeting where they reversed course and that's what they called the taper tantrum so I'm just saying that yields rates were going up in Q4 2018 that's why we had a correction in equity markets so you know I wouldn't just count like I wouldn't just look at seasonality I would kind of read the room I don't think I have to always read seasonality so yeah you do it I just think you do it but it's not a it's not about the actual thing yeah but yeah exactly you have to put it with everything I think that if I was to put like on a scale or season only 4 million shares at 320 for something in the afternoon on a down day like this we would typically be doing a hundred to a hundred two hundred million shares a day and we're not getting that volume I think you think of breath we're still in the same range we're just range bound there's nothing's changed here until we break a range nothing changed here for me Brian you got any thoughts I would actually like to hear I not want to hear Brian he's attitude is a monitor has had his hand up and I wanted to go to monitor I couldn't see I want to hear monitor too so there you go I want to hear him yeah I don't want to hear a monitor but that's final speak so just going back on Corey look this this is a problem this is a canary in a coal mine and there is a lot hiding behind it and it is not just Corey that's going to have this problem it might be the first it might be even the worst but there's a lot going on here that is common to almost any of any of the GPU resellers outside of the outside of the big three let's say I put you on article in this mix to some extent credit is just the first issue for the longest time they've been skating on one single fact that irrespective of price increases across the board on everything that they've done cost increases rather on everything that they have in terms of their input they have been given a pass because of their ability to keep increasing prices the unit realization for them GPU has been going up and I don't think that's going to stay that way for long especially as we have more capacity come in in very large quantities in the next few quarters that pricing power is going to decrease and potentially at some point in time go away where it becomes buyers market once you take that off the equation then everybody who has shaky financials is you know on a road to ruin you know at different levels the interestingly I don't think the the Bitcoin miners turned turned new clouds have the same problem because they are mostly just leasing their facilities and you know fewer of them are actually you know throwing their own money into building out GPU clusters so so as long as they are doing it light I think they are going to be fine but but but new cloud especially Corvieve right because it has so much direct exposure to to Nvidia it's going to be interesting what Nvidia does if things get far worse they have a lot of product credits sitting with them for the next I think seven ten years or so something like that and there's a lot of their backlog that's tied to you know Corvieve's order so so it's going to be a mess for Nvidia so it remains to be seen what they do but I don't think this remains here these knock on effects go across the board to the entire AI space you know Corvieve's got contracts either in place or you know waiting for you know power delivery substations you know the works all of the electrical the edge networking you know call it what you will every one of those will have to start adjusting their backlog or at least putting a risk on the far out backlog especially from Corvieve but to some extent everybody else so I don't think this stops there now this might this might not get worse and it might it might fade away slowly but if we do get large capacity come on stream I think the economics of the neo-cloud business is gone to hell and and I believe that across the board it's not just Corvieve I think none of them can survive competition direct competition on price with any of the hyper scalars this just they just cannot play that game so so in that sense I think this is a big problem it's still early I mean this could be contained but I have my doubts and I don't like where this is I have zero exposure to neo-cloud again I said it yesterday I didn't participate on the upside because I didn't trust this business model and I'm being proven right not that you know I gave up all that potential profit but looks like you know what I expected in the first place is coming through now so and I wouldn't touch it here I'm not there is no number there that's there's no level there that I would buy any of these neo-clouds it's they have 30 billion of net depth today on like a sub 40 billion dollar market cap and they're projected you know this year they're doing 37 billion of catbacks the next couple of years are going to you know do basically the same the only way that they fund these things is through early prepayments on contracts but if you're an equity investor in these at what point you actually see a return on like your investment because all of that money is going to go back to the services for those prepayment dollars I mean people are quoting these 60% even a margin businesses but in even others the word interest depreciation amortization those are very real costs so on a profitability profitability basis they're they're very low returns and then on top of that you have this huge debt load and then you're going to take on a lot more debt load because you're not even able to drop profits anytime soon. So just, it's not, I think, you know, I've had some bearish posts on this. It's not so much that I'm saying this thing is bankrupt tomorrow or next year or ever. It's more about what is the equity truly worth? And, you know, I think people get confused because someone could end up buying the core we've business, but for pennies on the dollar because the equity is not worth much. And I think the impairment of the equity is the bigger concern. So, and that's not just the core we've, but it could be for a lot of these things. Again, it's, they're able to survive on the upswing because there's just on-step flow of capital is so many people trying to get exposure to this thing. But as soon as the yields start going up, and again, people misunderstand that when the bond yield is at 15%, that's on their unsecured notes. It's not like they're, that's like the second market. It's like, you know, it's a secondary market. It's not that their current debt is at 15%, that's not what that means. It just means that that's how much investors are expecting to get in return to fund them. And of course, they can get other funding with contract backed funding at lower interest rates. Sure. Yeah, I get it. But the access to capital is severely limited in a business that is extremely capital intensive. So if they don't keep getting more capital, how do they keep it going? I don't want to say it's a Ponzi scheme, but it kind of operates like one. You're taking money from here and then like paying back old investors through the services and it just keeps going. But if the capital dries up, that's where you get into a sticky place. So, and I think those bond yields are kind of telling you that their access to capital is very limited now. And Mike, you know, you said it's a Bible dip look. I mean, we went straight down for seven days and you could catch our bounce here. You can get a bounce here. I'm not saying you can't get a bounce here, but. I just think this whole core we think is overdone. I hear you guys and I'm listening. I'm like, I don't believe the AI trade. Are we making the implication? I just, I'm joining the way. Are we making the implication here that core we've is the reason that we're now for it? I'm not. So I think it definitely is part of it. My friend. I mean, I think we don't think it's fine. We were definitely down because of inflation print earlier, but okay, stock talk. Interst rates went up this morning. The 10 year yield went up over 5.3 and then it fell in a straight line. Yeah, that's true. So the inflation print caused yields to spike. So for that reason, I agree that the early weakness in the day was likely caused by the inflation printing hot. But what caused the yields to come right back down within hours of the inflation print? To me, that has to do with a potential investors considering a slowdown in the AI trade because it feels unsustainable. You had a DEV at the analyst come out today and basically say that, you know, core we've definitely could be worth very little. Yeah, go ahead. I'll interrupt. We're about to hear from a thropic at some point in the next six hours on their financials, which can change everything in a heartbeat because anthropic would not be going public in less than a month if their finances were in shape. I still, I don't, yeah, I hear you. I think given that their IPOs in 30 days, I don't think that they're going to come out and say anything negative, but are we getting to a point where investors are starting to shrug that information off? Because I mean, I don't think they are. I think it's just a bullet. I feel like this is a sign up in the market where we're allowing companies to just IPO at $2 trillion dollar valuations, Willie Nilly, and we're just supposed to expect like, I had, there were people like really tweeting out that like, oh, yeah, they have $415 billion in commitments. They have $100 billion in ARR, which we talked about how open source can eat their market share, others can, it's a competitive environment. Fine, let's say they have $100 billion in ARR, and they have $63 billion of annual compute commitments. That's like people are sitting here telling you, like yeah, of course, they can easily, you know, this makes a ton of sense. It's like, dude, that's $63 billion before they have any other expenses. We're talking about nothing else. We're not talking about catbacks, we're not talking about. But it's one top-back. It's a chaos. Oh, dude, it's $2 trillion. I was the entire AI trade is based on anthropic. Everyone is, I mean, okay. But I'm just saying, if this company is gonna operate at those kinds of margins, and they're currently very unprofitable, like, how do we assign a $2 trillion valuation to it? I'm just saying, at what point does it start to get a little wobbly? Stocks are like, let's hear it from you, man. I mean, do I think that the core-weave thing is a problem? Yeah, I think core-weave is toxic equity, and I think the statement made by David's in this morning is probably accurate. He says it's a zero if there is a genuine momentum in the AI trade. I don't even think that that's a crazy thing to say. But I think today is just strong. The camel's back action. You have way too much weight on this market now. The last thing you need is core inflation printing on a month over month basis at 0.3% running at 3.4 annualized versus 2.7 annualized as of the last print. Today's inflation print was a lot harder than it looked on the surface. On the surface, it just looked like a 0.1% beat on the monthly numbers and the core monthly numbers way hotter than it looks on the surface. So I think people are looking at the AI trade now, and looking at the broader market too, today we're seeing it bleed over to the indexes, right? And today's action is not isolated AI stocks. You have the queues down 2%. You have a lot of software names today too, by the way. IGV is down 3%. Software is acted as a rotational relief valve for people who want to stay in tech and get out of AI. That is not how it's operating today. I mean, there are a handful of software names that are up. I'm not saying every single software names down. And the software names in my portfolio are acting more resilient than the hardware names certainly. But you're getting pretty broad-based selling today. And I think this is just strong, the camel's back action. I think eventually stuff that the market rushes off starts to matter when you have a massive piling up of negative information. And I think that's what we're seeing today. Can I ask you? So then look, let's go back to yields spike on the inflation print and then immediately fell. My original thought was if there's contagion in the AI growth trajectory, right? And there's a slowdown in the AI trade, that could weigh on GDP estimates. So people are, whether I agree with it or not, they are signaling a recession trade. Yeah, I agree with that. Look at Dollar Tree today. You'll see Dollar Tree today? No, I haven't. Dollar Tree is ripping. Oh, there you go. So, and there's another thing that I think you do bring up a good point about the CPI print. What if the original reaction is yields up on hot inflation? But when you drill into the numbers, you saw a lot of that increase in CPI was due to higher oil, higher gas prices. And there's a lot of data historically that whenever you get an energy shock like the one we've seen, you typically do get a recession in the next 12 months. I wonder if it could be a little bit of both happening here. Both the AI trade and the higher oil, higher energy affecting consumers. It could be a little bit for sure. Yeah, I mean, I think you're getting closer to a scenario where I don't know about a recession, but I think that you're getting closer to a scenario where a market crash may solve a lot of problems. I know that sounds like shitty, but market like a just a hard rug pull in the market might solve a lot of problems. It might bring inflation down. It might capsize some of the AI spending. It might bring valuations down to a more reasonable level where fundamental institutions can put real bids under these stocks. It might solve a lot of problems. I'm not saying that's what's gonna happen, but a market crash could be a pretty excellent relief valve based on where we are. I don't like putting predictions out there six, nine months in the future as far as a recession goes. I don't think you're far off base. I don't think what you're saying is ridiculous. I don't think that it's ridiculous to start speculating on that, but the economy's still really strong. And it's difficult for me to make that leap, but from an equity standpoint, yeah, I mean, to me, this has been one of the hardest markets I've traded in my life in terms of individual stock picking over the last several months, but it's starting to feel like more than that now. It's starting to feel like the momentum soft that we had, which was the worst momentum soft in history in June, July and August, by far, by the way, there's nothing close to the type of momentum soft that we've seen, not even in the dot-com bubble. Just on a data basis, that's not my opinion. That's just what the data says. If you look at Jeffery's tech momentum index, you look at Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, anyone's momentum index, you can see the data yourself. But I think we just have way too many factors at play right now for the market to be able to juggle incremental shifts in any of these industries. And that's a really difficult environment to operate in for all market participants. And I said, thank you for your seeing that being reflected today. And finally, bleed over to the indexes for the first time in a while. Now, the S&P 500 and the QQQs still intact on their weekly charts? Yep, they are, in spite of this. And so, to Mike's point earlier, I don't think Mike's up here anymore. You are still trading in a range of the indexes. He is right about that. And we have not broken, we've not like broken down on the major indexes. So it's difficult to get two bearish here. And maybe it is the right thing to do. But in the status quo, it's difficult to get two bearish on an index standpoint. But I do think that enough data has come out now. We got the CPI print as well to say that inflation is a problem. Geopolitical situation is a problem. The valuations of AI companies, especially the frontier labs is a problem. The credit spreads, for basically all AI related debt core weave is the poster child of it. But look at the credit spreads for Oracle as well. I mean, let's not pretend that those have been good. And those are continued to blow out. You look at the, any of the CDS swaps, if you want to look at them across AI infrastructure, all the way down to any of the internal borrowing that's happened, they all suck. So credit risk is exploding. Yes, yields might be topping out here. They've acted like it. The tenure in 30 year acting like yields might be topping out here, but yields have become less of a problem now. They're at absolute levels where, yeah, they matter. They're north to 5%. But that's far less is what driving the market down now in my opinion. Now it's just stress through all of these factors, piling up. So I don't have a very optimistic outlook at this point. But I raised more cash today. We'll see if that ends up being the right decision or not. I don't mind if we get a bounce in the end of the week. I'll probably still continue to raise more cash. We saw some relative strength this morning in some of the Mag 7. That began to falter later into the session. I think Google was really bright green this morning. It's not down to percent. Amazon was green this morning. It's not down to 2%. Apple, which has been a place that people have run to to hide, is still up 2%. But that's really the place where people are rotating to today, Apple and Metta. And maybe those stocks hold up. But if those stocks start to roll over, I think that's when you get really, really concerned. But for now, there is, again, you've got to look at both sides of the equation here. The index structure is still holding well. And so you have to give a hat tip to the indexes for that for now, at least, until that changes. But in the backdrop of that, if you weren't looking at the indexes, things look terrible. I was going to tell you that, dude. That's my next point I was going to say to you is, I think that in a typical run of the mill correction, you would have already seen breadth recovered by now. And the IWM just lost the 200 day today. Pretty decisive. It started to recover. We had about a week and a half, two weeks. We were starting to recover. And yeah, I got run cold today. And the thing that I was saying earlier is, RSK had a nice bounce. But I never felt the IWM did. And I used the IWM as shitty as it is. And we can agree on that. But stronghold markets will have small cap participation. I mean, obviously you could be in a narrower market. I understand that. But because you couldn't get any traction there, it felt almost more like a risk off environment to me. Like a lot of the names that I've been trying to, I've been trying to knife catch left and right. And it has not been working. I mean, you expect, OK, this thing is at a very key level. It's down 50% from its highs. Fundamentals are intact. I don't see a reason why this should, they should recover. This should be nice little. Almost, I think every single stock I tried to knife catch has made new lows within days. They get a small bounce. They go into overhead resistance and roll right back over and make new lows. Like the down trends are still very much intact. And without the breath being able to catch any sort of traction, it's just made, like again, that was my assessment in the beginning. Wow, so bullish. I'm like, look, you had a big time wash out under the surface. Yields were obviously causing that. Yes, the Mag 7 might be like a safety trade. People go to the AI trade. That's where the growth is fine. Maybe this is one of those corrections where it's a truly stealth correction, right? And then eventually you get the breaths to recover. And then you push the indices higher. But the breath is not recovering, has not been recovering. And it's just been making new lows. Like I mean, people have been posting like the NYSI or NASI, the McClellan summation indexes. And like they've just actually not really been hooking back up. Like the new lows have actually still been very bad. And I could see it in a lot of the names that I've tried to knife catch. And it's just not working. So my original thesis, OK, Brent will catch up. But you know, the binary event was, if Brent doesn't catch up that indices catch down, I just think we're playing that out now. Brent looks like you could be it. Let's get Brian in here. Yeah, Brian's been a nice bull in these sort of situations. I'm curious, Brian, if you're still bull. Yeah, Brian, we're down 3% today. Why are you dumble, you hear bullish? Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. Dumble is not the right thing. That's what you just said. That's what I heard. Well, I said, Brian's been bullish at the right times in these situations he has been. So let's see. You know, it's funny. Sometimes people will call me permeables and then two minutes later call me perm bearer. So like I try not to be bullish or bearish. Look, today, days like today, I'm not anybody's friend. Because I like to just talk kind of, you know, down to earth about what's really happening. Yesterday we talked about how the market is not theoretical and people can lose real money and they can lose families and jobs and houses and things like that. And so, you know, I think it's time for a difficult conversation for a lot of people. I think if you are a long-term investor in your dollar cost averaging and you're doing your retirement accounts, you're doing fine. And I think if you're a real serious trader, you're doing fine as well. I think there's a lot of people that are playing at trading or playing at active investing. And I think a lot of those people are in pain right now. And I want to be compassionate because it sucks. I don't want anyone to be in pain. But I also have to be honest and I have to tell you that if you're in pain right now and you're down a lot, there's really nothing you can do right now to stem the pain. And that sucks because everyone wants to be able to take some medicine to make them feel good now. But the problem is is that if you're in pain right now, it's most likely due to the consequences of decisions you made or you didn't make three months ago, six months ago, nine months ago, 12 months ago. So if you're in that situation, I think you have a decision to make and one of the decisions can be, hey, this is not for me. I'm not an active investor. I'm not a trader. It doesn't suit my personality. That's totally fine. I've got friends who don't only think about what's going on in the market. They're up nicely this year. They sleep well at night. And more importantly, the market doesn't occupy their head rent-free, which means there's other, there's more space for other things that are important to them. So if you're finding that you're just not an active market participant, totally cool, right? On the other hand, if you think that you still have what it takes, if you think you can get a handle on active trading, you think you can improve and eventually outperform the market, that's great. But there's one thing you have to do before you go for it. And that is you have to take complete ownership of where you are. Okay? You have to accept responsibility for where you are in your PNL right now. We all own our PNL. You can't blame interest rates, can't blame the war in Iran, can't blame Trump, can't blame oil prices, right? You have to take ownership, and that sucks, right? So the question is, if you're going to take ownership, how do you prevent this from happening again? And what you have to do is you have to look at how you got here and be brutally honest, right? And decide what you're going to do differently going forward. Now for me, I'm always looking at risk first. Guess what, that's not sexy. Nobody likes to hear that. But I'm looking at what I could lose before I look at what I could make, right? And starting from that vantage point, then I build going forward. In our community, I don't tell people what to buy. I don't tell them when to buy or when to sell. Because it would be like if someone were to come into a gym and say, hey, I want to get in shape. And I just say, okay, well, just do what I do. What the problem is, we've got different body types and different genetics, right? Our metabolisms are different. We have physical limitations. Like what I do for me will probably work a little bit for you, but not completely. And it's the same way in the market because we all have different account sizes. We have different risk tolerance, different time horizons, different financial obligations. We have different personalities and emotional responses. So what we do in our community is we focus on the skills. I'll tell you the markets in a risk on or a risk off state. I'll show you the names that I think are really have the best opportunity to make the most money quick, right? But we work on things like discipline, on quantifying risk, on knowing when you're wrong, on being able to admit that you're wrong, right? All these sort of things that are the foundations for you to then build a methodology that works for you that will allow you to be profitable six months from now, a year from now, five years from now, 10 years from now. So again, I don't want to be jerk and I really do have a lot of compassion for people. But for every 10 people I lose, I'll get three and those three will listen. And I think I can make a real change in their lives. I tell them that it doesn't matter all that other stuff that's going on out there. If you're trying to be active in the market, you have to have a methodology, you have to have one that works for you and you have to take full ownership. And if that's too difficult, and like I said, I get it, it can be difficult, then you're just best off, dollar cost averaging, doing all that stuff, the long-term investing, trust me, you'll sleep better at night and you won't have to sit through days like today. So you're bullish or bearish? It is. Well, let me flip it going. It depends on the names. So look, I haven't hidden what names I've been talking about in the last couple of weeks. I've been talking about SpaceX. We were in it from 132 and I talked about taking profits on it when it hit a topping tail a week ago. I Oscar, which is green today, Ben and Oscar, right? I mean, when the AI stocks are cratering, we were in the software stocks. Like I just want to be flexible. I don't want to be right. I also don't want to be a prognosticator or a guru. I'm not smart enough to see around the corner. I just want to know where my risk is, where my tolerance is, and hopefully have enough discipline to pull the trigger and get out of the way because I don't like sitting through these pullbacks. You know, I don't have a five year timeframe or a two year timeframe. I do and my other stuff, the stuff that I don't manage that's BDCA, but I traded Nvidia today for two and a half hours and lost money on it. That was my timeframe. So I was bullish on it. At some point, I knew where my risk was. It hit my risk. I was out in the story. Yeah, that's fair. I mean, I think look, a lot of people who listen to these things, maybe they're new in the last couple of years and it's their first cycle. But to be fair, you're just starting investing in the last couple of years. You've already dealt with some pretty nasty corrections. Like they ran, War One was fairly nasty. The tariff tantrum one last year was very bad. So I feel like you're getting like a speed run through what it could look like. But for people who haven't experienced a bear market like even 2022, I think we're very accustomed to the idea of V-shaped recoveries and V-shaped rallies. So there's people on this app who probably own Iron. It's probably a lot of people listening to that own it. They're going to price anchor to $70 or $100 and say, oh, this thing was $100. Yeah, but it also was $6 in mid 2025. So which one are we going to price anchor to? And if you did get a draw now correction, I think people think that they're entitled to the price to stock was just trading at. And I don't think that it generally works that way. And sometimes those stocks never even see those prices ever again, let alone if it takes them years to climb back up. So if that's where the risk is, it's a really tough trade. And I'm not saying this is a bear market or something, because you used to do the S&P's within 2% of all that might as well. Being cautious and prepared and acknowledging that those are the kinds of things that can happen in stocks is very important for managing the risk. And again, you've seen with these individual names, they're already down 50%, 60%. If the S&P did go into a major correction, you think that your small cap Chicago is just going to buck the trend, and it's just going to revert. You know what I mean? The environment has changed. So I think it is important to manage risk. I mean, just yesterday I was saying, I'm the lowest net long I've been since the March, since the Iran War stuff. I don't think that's necessarily the best style for people who aren't wanting to trade in and out. If you're a more longer term, and you've been sitting on names for a long time, there's no point in panicking all the time. Like, I don't necessarily think what I do is panicking, but I do have a higher turnover. So I try to use that to my advantage. If I already have high turnover throughout the year, I buy and sell stocks, I trade them. And I have obviously a healthy year-to-date realized gains. That's a lot of taxes I got to write off, right? So I've already booked a ton of the gains that I'm sitting on. So for me to cut some positions and then raise cash, it's not a huge taxable event to me. So I may as well use that to my advantage, you the fact that I've already had the taxable event take place. So that's an advantage to a style like mine with higher turnover. I don't think that's necessarily like you can listen to all of us and we all trade and think very differently. But you just have to do what's right for you on the personal journey. I don't think you should listen to people on here. I think it's really funny because I obviously was feeling like, okay, very bullish recently because I thought, you know, breath could recover and I should be levered long to the upside on to this. But when that breath is not able to bounce, I have to change my mind. I can't sit in leverage and just watch everything continuously melt down and I'm just bleeding out, you know, my heart and money like. So I just think it's important if you're doing active trading and individual stocks, you're not like buying the S&P which most of those are probably not. It's a much riskier game and you've seen the volatility. So, you know, putting your head in the sand is just not going to work. And if you can't do that, then this is probably not for you because a lot of people got absolutely destroyed in 2022 myself included. And I was still, you know, learning a lot. I learned a lot during that 2022 bear market. And if you don't get an immediate reversal, that's going to be painful. Months of pain, your stomach is going to turn. My stomach turned all the time. May 2022, my stomach was turning. I felt like I couldn't do anything. Like, so, you know, I think you want to know about stomach turning. I literally puked at my desk multiple times in 2008 during the financial crisis. And the thing is, when I was doing that, maybe I'm doing this wrong. You know, like, I don't think you're supposed to puke from the market. And I think I could trace that back to when I first, you know, I did this for like 20 years semi successfully, beating my head against the wall, making the same mistakes. And when I found myself puking, I thought, I really either need to figure out what I'm doing wrong because I don't want to do this. Like, I don't want to be puking. And the worst thing is when you're puking because of the market, you have no control over it. It's not like you're on a boat that you can get off of. You can stop drinking like something externally is causing you to heave, right? And so that's when I first said, I just, this is not fun anymore. And so, you know, I think I would say if people are out there having a unfun time right now, then it's just time to look in the mirror and say, is this for me? And it's okay if it's not, right? But if it is, you have to be serious. I will say though, like as long as you don't go to do something that's going to like, like ruin your life kind of thing, like, you know, you could afford to lose what you're losing and you're not gambling with like your kids college fund or, you know, because there are a lot of these people I see on this app, which is just absurd to me. You need to know the risks of what you're thinking. People only love to talk about the reward. Again, I don't want to get too bearish here because I mean, you did bring up, oh, I don't want people to freak out or 2% off the highs. But obviously, if you own individual stocks, some of these names are already down 50, 60%. If you help them from the highs, you know, I don't want to downplay that you are already feeling a ton of pain. So just because the index isn't in that type of correction, your individual stocks absolutely could be and that could be enough to make your stomach turn. I'm just saying that if the index was to roll over, it's not going to get easier from here. So, yeah. And here's the problem. A lot of these names are down 50, 60%. People are taking the attitude of like, well, they're already down 50 or 60%. So, you know, how low can they go? I'm telling you, I put a tweet out earlier today. Some of these names are going to take years to get back to their all-time highs. Some of them are never going to get back to their all-time highs. They're going to turn into zombie stocks and they're just going to go do nothing. And some of these names are going to go out of business. Now, I don't know which ones are. I'm not smart. I've never been talking about core we visit a zero or not zero. I have no idea. But in my philosophy, and you don't have to agree with it, my philosophy is there's way smarter money out there than me, right? Institutional money that moves billions of dollars that will figure out if core we visit zero or not. If they don't think it's a zero, they're going to get greedy and they're going to want to get into it. And if they do think it's a zero, they're going to get fearful and get out of it. In my world, I believe that I can look at the technical analysis and get somewhat of an idea of those footprints. I'm not saying I can predict, but I can at least say, I think there is a better than average chance that x, y, z happens than I can quantify my risk on that. And I'll know where I'm wrong. That's the most important thing. This is one of the reasons that I really harp on technical analysis is because it is basically as objective as it can be. Now, you can make it subjective by having 8,000 different moving averages. But if you're doing it the right way, if you're wrong, you know you're wrong. You may not pull the trigger. You may not get out, but you can't say, well, I didn't know where this trade went wrong. And you can go back and look at all of these AI names. You can see when they lost the nine, you can see when they lost the 21, etc, etc. A lot of them are just, they're not coming back. Yeah, I agree with you. I think Stocktalk obviously agrees with you. He uses a lot of technicals in his approach. As do I, I think a very easy one for me in terms of trying to catch a falling knife because I have been, I tried several times in during this breath pullback because, you know, in my head, I'm thinking, look, it's binary. Either these things are going to rip back to the upside or it's all over, right? Like those are the two situations in my mind. And if I, if it comes down to a level where I think it's a key level, now, you know, it gets trickier because, you know, you're potentially below all moving averages. It's a tough trade to make. But you do need to have an understanding of like, okay, on the longer term, you know, chart, you know, I see this stock. It's trading at 170 in the past. That's been a very key level. Okay, you know, I could take a swing here at 170. And if it, if it, if it, you know, bounces, rolls over and if, or if it just loses that value, I can't sit in this trade because I don't know where the bottom actually will be. I'm absolutely okay with trying to catch a falling knife, but I'm not going to allow myself to continue to hold it when my thesis is broken. And my thesis here being very technically driven for an upside reversal. I mean, the risk or worth there is quite good. But I will admit, I've taken several five to seven percent losses on stocks that I've tried to to catch the knife recently. And, you know, I can live with a five seven percent loss on a five, six, seven percent position. It's not the end of the world. And you know what, I'm happy to take that risk reward. But when the, when the trade doesn't work and it's invalidated very quickly and makes new lows, I mean, you could be sitting around and just waiting for, you know, much larger losses to take place if you're becoming inactive. So, yeah, I think good traders know that you can, you know, the ideal goal is big gains. You can allow a big gain to turn into a small gain. You could learn, you could allow it to become a small loss. But the one thing you cannot do is let it turn into a big loss. And yeah, I mean, it's important. I agree with you that like you take a lot of Q from the trading, the price action, the volume because while a lot of fundamental investors, I should only be fundamental only. Never looked at charts, never understood it. Thought it was astrology just like everyone else. Until you start to understand there's more information so why wouldn't you use it? And oftentimes I may not have the analyst research reports from every investment bank, but I can see how they're acting on the chart. And if it loses a key level, that means that buyers did not step in to add to that stock and they didn't support it. Or, you know, if they're dumping it with volume, that tells me that somebody somewhere who has much higher size than me, who probably knows this company way better than me, said that I'm out of the stock. And I'm like, okay, well, I'm going to tail them, like because I don't know better than them. So yes, I can be a little fickle, but I'd rather be fickle than loser. So, you know, I think it's really important to also know the fundamentals. That's when you'll know, hey, can this business work? Does this valuation that I'm paying, that I'm buying this business at, does it make fundamental sense? Like, if I'm buying something at like 10 times EBITDA and it's growing 40%, that could be a great setup. I mean, this thing should maybe trade at 20 for those types of metrics. And, you know, knowing both parts is very important. Yeah, anyways. Start, Cuck, where is your portfolio actually at right now as far as like cash, position, hedge, everything like that. Good day. After today's sales, it's like close to 40% cash. Might be higher by the end of the week, depending on what the action looks like. Was there a basket you were moving more out of in-eve or something? No, just stocks that were breaking down. Just stocks that were breaking down below the moving average is pretty simple to make. Just wanted to raise more cash in general, but those were the right names to sell at that time. Why did you get a hedge at this point a little bit set of raising cash? My hedging is raising cash. My hedging is raising cash. That's just a version of hedging. Different ways to hedge. I mean, if you're going to keep a full book, if you're going to stay fully exposed, then it makes sense to hedge directly on the positioning. If you're going to raise half your book in cash, like I'm planning on doing, then that is a version of hedging, right? So to each their own, but that's how I like to control risk is by raising cash. Now, if we're going to enter a bear market regime, which we're nowhere near, I mean, the SP500 is like a hair off all time highs. But if the indexes were to break down over the next few months and go into the type of formation they were in, let's say prior to March of 22, that's probably the most recent example where the indexes fall below. They're 200 day moving average, which is a long way away. I'm not implying that's going to happen. But if that were to happen, then I would take an offensive stance on shorting the indexes.