Macro Talk only by Fred Krueger

on that bandwagon. Yeah, it's really funny to watch, but a little sad, but I don't know. Yeah, you know, like I saw that, I don't know if you caught L-Aryan from Pimco, Alliance, and he had a very good point. He was like, he's being interviewed and he goes, look, this is not a problem of people forming inflation expectations. It's just a problem of there's too much demand for there's too much issuance of these treasuries and there's not any buyers at this point, right? The buyers have gone, you know? The buyers used to be the Saudis, the United Emirates, the Norwegians, the Japanese, the Chinese, the buyers aren't there anymore. The banks aren't buying, they're tapped out. Yes. You know, who's the buyer of last resort other than the Fed? I mean, who else can, I mean, they're talking about these stable coins, but that's such a small number right now, relative to these trillions of dollars that we need. I don't know. Yeah, I was listening to someone's podcast, I forget who it was, but they said, the new bond vigilantes are the Japanese. I thought that was hilarious. Yeah, I mean, the thing about the Japs have a trillion dollars worth of this stuff and they need the money now, right? I mean, they just blew what, 80 billion, I mean, what did they build? They blew on just the last interventions. So just a absurd number, right? And, and best since even helping them, it's just like, man, QE by another name, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, you there? Santa Barbara, you need. Hey, Fred. Yeah, what's your opinion on the macro view here? Where do we go, macro wise? We got a lot of stuff coming up, man. I think Friday, this weekend, it's gonna be really interesting. We got the Fed decision, we got the inflation number Thursday, we got, bests and struting is bazooka off on Friday. I mean, well, I mean, the appetite for US trashers, it's been like on a steady downfall, who's buying that, Fred, you know? So I think the void, the void is going to be filled with Bitcoin, you know, so that's, that's bullish as fuck. So, but that's just been the trend for the last five years, you know, it's nothing new, but Joe will sit there and tell you that there's always demand for US treasuries. That's what he'll say. But, you know, my view is, yeah, there's a ton of demand for three month paper, tons, one year bills, max, you know what I mean? But I don't think there's a lot of demand for 10 year US treasury paper here at under 5%. Well, Fred, if demand was unlimited, then why not just, you know, run the deficit to 10%, why not run five trillion dollar deficits? I mean, it doesn't make any sense, right? Like, either, either demands unlimited, and we can borrow until the kingdom come, and then we should, or there's enough demand. What's one of the two? There's always going to be demand, you know, like when in the right, when in the right, appropriate context, you know? There's always going to be demand for US treasuries, but from how we get the right, to the right, and see that big deal. There's demand at 10%. Yeah, there is demand at 10% for US treasuries. I mean, there are a lot of people who would just buy US treasuries at 10%, they say, fuck it, I don't care if there's a place. That kills the stock market. That kills the golden goose. Right, that's the problem there's where's that money coming from? It's coming from the stock market, right? Well, it's not coming from private credit because they're gated. So you can't get your money out, sorry, it's seen or closed. It's not really coming from gold because Americans don't own gold. So, nope. There's more Americans who want Bitcoin than they own gold. Gold being accumulated by China and by India, not Americans. But it's either coming from the stock market or I guess you could argue the basis trade, but I just don't see that. Matter of fact, I think it's the other way around. I think the bottom, I think that's right that the bond venture land these are now the very governments that were buying our bonds. They're simply the vigilantes because they're not buying. And you've got to roll over what? Nine trillion dollars in the next 12 months. And then add to that an additional three trillion from deficit spending. Like, you've got to find buyers. It's simple map at this point, Fred. Like, either they're going to buy them back. The Fred is going to buy them. The Treasury is going to find a way to buy them. Or are yields are going a lot higher? Yeah, I mean, the Treasury is not articulate. You know what? It was also really interesting because, you know, this interview with LR-Aryan. The interview we, the viewer, said, you know, do you think Bessent is going, you know, Bessent is having a hard time drawing the line in the sand. And then, Aryan goes, well, you'll notice that he shifted already because he said, what are you going to stop the yields from going up? He said, I'm just trying to kind of make the market more orderly. And then then she goes, wait a second, is the market disorderly right now? And he goes, I would not think the market is disorderly. So basically, it's full of shit, right? He's like, he's already, he's already conceding that he will not be successful at doing this. And yet he is now. And so we're going to have a moment on Friday. We're two, one of two things happen. Friday, Saturday, Sunday. Either he succeeds at getting the bonds yield lower. Might happen, right? Who knows? I don't know what the Fed's, but at this point, probably going to do nothing, right? But let's just say, let's just say, so yeah, so either he succeeds or he doesn't, and then he's looking like a complete idiot. I don't know. That seems like those are the two choices to mean. Look, I think the market's going to call his bluff. I've not been impressed with the cent for a while now. You know, we were talking about it earlier. Look, this is the guy who punched Elon Musk famously in the face of the government fraud. You should have known something was weird then. I think he punched somebody else in the face too. I can't remember who it was. Were? No, I can't. I don't know. The guy is violent, you know? He's kind of coming across as the enforcer. Yeah, we're a dog, one of the two. Yeah, he's basically Trump's thug. You know, basically like, yeah, I'll get whatever you need done. Yeah, I kind of feel like. Look, if he was any self-respecting guy in his position, we're quick. And the fact that he's not quitting means they probably got a shitload of dough down him. I can only imagine what it is. Oh, here. Where are intros race going, my friends? I think they're going the same direction they have been going. Unfortunately. That's not really good for your stock market. We're fully able to. Well, it depends on what you own. I don't know. I'm not so sure even that that's true. Well, it has been, I mean, you know, even with rising rates, we've done very well. So it depends on what you want. I mean, if you want some, you know, if you're indexed, you're probably not. That's probably not the right way to do it. I mean, if you're the average person, the average investor, that's probably the right way to do it. If you have a long term horizon, but in this environment, yeah, I don't think it's the right way to do it. I think there are a lot of idiosyncratic opportunities out there that really, you know, rising rates, falling rates really don't matter so much. So I think there's, you know, there as Jim Kramer always says, there are always, there's always a bull market out there and you promise us to bring it to you, right? Well, that's the thing. I've never heard Kramer say anything until I was in his life, debut. I mean, literally is the biggest contrary indicator ever. I mean, I think he sold all his Bitcoin at 58,000. I'm pretty good. Did he have to upload low? Yeah. Guys, guys track record is abysmal. Well, it is. I mean, look, I always laugh when I hear people say all he's a or I am a former hedge fund manager, right? Former hedge fund manager. Look, unless you died, then you're never a four or there are only two raised. You become a former hedge fund manager. You blew yourself up or you died. By the way, your buddy, your buddy best sense is a former fund operator. My point exactly, right? I mean, there's only one, you know, there's only you either die, you retire, right? You die or you blow yourself up. There's no, you never, you never exit on your own accord. Exactly. I mean, there's just too much. If you're really good doing that, you're doing that. You're never going to stop doing that. Right? It's just it's too lucrative. You make too much money. So this idea of being a former hedge fund manager. You know, I don't know how we were fed this nonsense about best and being so smart. As it turns out, he actually wasn't part of the team at Soros. You did the English pound. I don't know if he was. Of course he wasn't. He was too. Yeah. Yeah. That was too much. Too many years ago. Of course he wasn't. But this is again, part and parcel with with the whole environment, you know, you're just being of. You're being fed a bunch of nonsense all the time, constantly a stream of nonsense and people believe it. No one does do diligence. Okay. Think about it guys. You know this. How many people actually do any any due diligence of any kind? Nobody. Right? So if you were told, you know, best that was a, you know, a rock star in the hedge fund industry. It sounds good, right? The average person will allow. Fantastic. Well, then he must be, you know, he must be a, you know, a shoe in for this, for this role. I mean, give me a break. You know, you. I mean, well, his comments on the Iran war idiotic. Like we're about to end the Iran war and oil is going to be $40. Wait, listen, they've been. He's always at an all time high, buddy. Exactly. Right. They've been, they've been about to end the war since they started the war. It was literally about two more weeks. Just give us two more weeks were, but we're done. How can you, how can you, how can you take this guy seriously? You can't. And his boss is putting photos of the moon saying it blocks America. Like, they, they're really glad he claimed it before like Iran claimed it. You know what I mean? Because that would have been really bad. I mean, I think Iran said I got dibs on the moon like it would be. So I mean, think about what you're even saying, right? Think about how idiotic this environment is. Where even where even talking about this, like the, the, the president of the United States is posting. You know, a million posts over a weekend that should be celebrated, right? We should be watching him cutting watermelon and, and, and you know, feeding people hamburgers and hot dogs on a Labor Day. He said we're, people are, are watching him, you know, tweet storm, absolute fucking garbage, like nonsense. It's just, it's, this is where this is where we are. This is this is kind of where we are. You know, it's. How is that even possible? How do we get here? How can we have a guy putting photos of the Trump straight with a picture of Donald Trump's safety in the geography. This is like we bought we were off the reservation here. Here's how we got here. We got here very slowly at first and then all at once. How do you go fucking bankrupt? Same way. This is this is how we got here. We got here very slowly. It took a long time and then we just fucking cast like literally just fell into it. You know, it's crazy. It literally is crazy. We're here. I was shocked that he got reelected and I know that dark side and puncher and some of these guys on here. They were pro Trump initially. I was pro Trump. I voted for the guy. You were pro Trump and I'm glad you guys got some sense. Finally that this guy's a fucking crook. He's just a fucking crook. He's grifting without a control. He's a crook. It's all about him. He's a narcissistic megalomaniac self-proclaimed fucking stable genius. He doesn't give two fucks about you or me or anybody else in this country. He cares about himself. That's it. Full stop. And the surrounded himself with other people just like him. Okay. Literally his old administration is all the same. They don't give two fucks. It's all about me. Me. How do I get ahead? Look at his commerce secretary. Shade away. Shade away everybody. Trust the plan. Trust the plan. Yeah. What do you mean by? Okay. What do you mean by trust the plan? Puncture. Shade away. He's kidding. He's kidding. He's fucking around. He's fucking around. Yeah. Too money. What do you think? Tell me what you really think. I don't know. I think Lutnik is arguably one of the biggest gun.