Blur/Blend Sunset = Capitulation Tuesday on Coffee with Captain #1,268

a FOMO competitor. So he's heading to the meme coin trenches to extract even further. A lot out there. I don't know if we're gonna hit on that today or not. I think it's probably somewhere between that article that you just shared in what was posted on the timeline initially and what reality is. But make Mike get into that today. We're definitely gonna talk about T's because what I gotta do all of all right now but I'll flash if you missed my earlier post. I will quickly flash the current leaderboard. I guess we called a leaderboard. It's sorted by one day change down and now OCH Genesis rings and ring bears. Those are down 81 and 72% respectively. The biggest drops on the day. However, that was to people were basically acquiring those or holding those to make yield games or yield farm. Whatever Scarlett's new project is on Robota chain and that did well. Like the mentors there. I think got in for like point one and it was a Dutch auction started it. One ETH was gonna settle at point six point 0.069. I think you don't homie do that. Anyways, it doesn't matter. It ended up minting out the Dutch auction at point nine six or basically like one ETH. So while these are down big those holders likely did very well on the mint. The friendship raises down 47% debits down 41% just a derivative off of assuming the Jack but your credits collection debits Jesus Christ debits. Sometimes you just read things and words come out that aren't actually words. I blame Frank Frank's fault for me calling it debits. It's definitely a 100% Frank's fault in DeGon's fault for me calling debits debits today on show. I read them like what is debits. I haven't seen that one. I know debits. I've seen the debits collection was familiar with the debits collection but my brain decided to read that as debits this morning. Talking about NFTs being down. DeGods being down. Yeah, there you go. Oh, the Dutch auction hasn't happened yet. What did I see with someone just making stuff up for yield farms? I thought I'll go find it. I know I saw a post that said it that it minted out at point nine six and I don't know what it had. I know it was yield same. So I don't know. I'm confused. But yeah, the DeGods that I struck and hasn't happened yet. I'm guessing then there was a snapshot. Is that why so this the OCH collections are down because they don't need to hold anymore. I'm curious there. But continuing on costs down 41% Cippy Club down 37% chain punks down 26% I'm going to skip around barricade on 25 as elementals down 21 Robin Hood machines down to Orange machines down 20% a zoom down 19% pudges down 18% to 2.19 I think they probably go below two to eat today. I said yesterday I think they probably went below two to eat if not for the bailout. The 117 that were slept. It's not going to matter with the there's just basically with blend shutting down it cascaded it sent off another loan liquidation cascaded and it's across all collections or not all but any what the several that were deep in blend apes included down 16.5% to 5.1 that's bounced a little bit. It was in the fours. There was a few sales in the fours. People questioning what we hit the all-time low since the initial run-up. I think probably unfortunately doodles down 60 unless there's someone else that steps in and stops believing by way of a bailout doodles down 16% medium captains out 14% mutants down 12% code is down 13% and it just keeps going a little put you down 11 it keeps going until one of the big winners on the day I mean Argo dots the big winner on the day another big winner on the day and I'm not saying this just who's on stage but stopperkers holding strong only down 2% on the day where everything else is selling off now I say that like somewhat tongue in cheek part of it is outside of OCHB down because of the you know people are holding out for or holding them for the yield farms Dutch options in about six hours Thanksgiving for that most the rest that are down down some like cost there was no leverage on that I have no idea why that's down well the contagion here is even if it's pudgy's apes in some of those 21 collections what's going to happen if people have blend loans and they don't want to get liquidated they're going to liquidate other things sell other things to avoid liquidation of those assets that they may consider like a blue chip asset and so you know leads to sell-offs and then people it's just it's a bad bad spot to be in short-term and probably unavoidable the challenge with blend is they're not time-bound loans like Gandhi where if I I've been a big proponent of NFT 5 but I've always not always if I've done I don't know 100 DeFi NFT 5 loans 99 of them have been on time-bound platforms today it's Gandhi I've used been down the past I initially use NFT 5 to where it's not based on there's no risk of liquidation unless you just don't pay repay your loan at the greed upon date whereas blend it would the the repayment the liquidation could be triggered if the floor price drops that's not the case with things like Gandhi how they're structured it's just you take out a loan you you agree to pay ex an interest and you just pay back when the due date whether it's a seven day loan a 30 day loan a six months loan six month loan you have that period of time to pay back what you agree to when you sign the initial contract as long as you pay back you you get your asset back blend very different dynamic and I think it's good that that it's no longer going to be part of the ecosystem hopefully someone doesn't spin up a competitor just use Gandhi if you want to if you want to pull there's nothing wrong with leveraging your assets like just do it in a smart way that's not going to put you at risk of losing those assets if floor prices drops weren't extremely volatile segment of the market and anyways I say all that to be said is it's going to get worse like there's for most these collections it's probably going to get worse until until it gets better until the loans are are fleshed out you said this when the first last Pudgey liquidation event hit was hey if you're in the market for for one of these don't buy now wait until wait until the you know the the bad loans flesh out and then and then make your play because it's almost always marked local bottom was correct with Pudgey although did not anticipate a second loan liquidation event immediately following like within a week because it did bounce you know Pudgey bounce the granted they did get the bail out but it did bounce and you would have been you would have been way better off to wait and buy it after that that fleshed out and then you're up a little bit now you're back down because of a second set of cascading liquidations same thing with any of these collections now the big ones most of them are apes Pudgeys and it's about 5.5 million in total is the total amount so 5.5 million and the problem is like a lot of them aren't going to get repaid most of these people are just going to walk because now the floor price is below so what happens is you've got $5.5 million in FTs going to people who didn't want the NFT they were just lending to earn yield and not always but most of the time they then just turn around and dump those NFTs that they get stuck with into the government of bids and they're out there's just no bids right now they're on most of these collections it's it's not existent I'm one enough to remember people gave a lot of people gave Boris a hard time for dumping into a bid that was like 6.5 a.d and I'm like first of all we shouldn't sell shame anyone it's their money they do whatever one of these assets but if you just look at the data it was a smart move I mean it's easy for me to say that on hindsight now but I was saying at the time like there was like three bids over over six a and and after a few offers would have accepted you were down in like 3.5 and so it was it was very savvy move I feel if you and I would say this right now like if you're someone who you're overextended and well I'll just use an ape for example because I got the chart pulled up now if you're gonna need to if you were thinking about selling that thing or you're using oh I need I need this cash I need 10k by the end of the month I'm not so I need not not tend to go sell it now but there's a world where you don't get any more close to 10k a month from now there's one two three four five bids total over 3.65 a the currently the floor is 5.1 top offers 4.61 and so I I share that because there's going to be more than five now there's four there's going to be more than four it's the inverted coffee with Captain Pump this morning or act five okay they just reduce they're bit they heard me talking and said you know what I'm I can I can lower this a little bit there's going to be more than five of these blend lindores that get stuck with it an ape that they didn't want and they're gonna go dump it into bids and now we're 3.65 and then 10 more happen and where it 2.43 so it's like this is it it looks like it looks like pain it is pain but but as soon as they flush out all you need is a bit because the supply isn't a ton now it's not instant because there's a hundred some of these that have to get flushed out first so it's not going to happen just instantly but let it play out for a few weeks and keep an eye on it and when you start seeing okay there's watch the wallets you got to you know know who are these sellers who's listing who are the ones that got stuck with ones from from blend that they didn't want and then after all those have dispersed into wallets that are actually collecting them or want to hold them long term now the sudden you're the floors they arguably you could say by end of November the NFT ecosystem at large could be healthier than it's been since the launch of blend which is which is a lot which is saying something it's just we got to get from here and now I don't know that people are going to be doing between now and November 12th I think it's the last day take it on more leverage it'll be kind of crazy in today's market but assuming that a lot more you know leverage to get loaded in the system it's likely paying for the next three to four weeks maybe longer it's just these things have to work they have to work they have to work the way it's themselves through the system the only thing that would change it is if a team a whale someone comes in and cleans up the books in one swoop and just buy some all otherwise it's just it is what it is like there's no it doesn't mean the end of NFTs and the end of these collections it has to happen it's got to flush out and then you don't have that leveraging the ecosystem then you don't have this dynamic that can unwind things quickly and things could send but unfortunately I think it's going to go lower potentially a lot lower before we get the bounce different but it's also just not funny but just stating facts 8Fest is in 3-8-4 days and for us these posts of this the chart will board a bioclet go below all time low in the next few days there's currently a hundred and 38 blend loans still open currently 83 in auction pretty crap timing for board a bioclet with 8Fest like last year's 10th in event but maybe we get good news which will make us bounce back instantly I don't know what to be instant because this is likely to still be taking place on over this weekend which sucks there's probably going to be we can liquidate it at 8Fest which sucks so I know it's not an instant bounce I don't think unless someone steps in and cleans it up now my concern and I vocalize this previously I'm going to vocalize it one more time and I'm sure of the team as well so it's not fun it is an idea constructive or not I don't know I'm not calling the shots but I do think the downside with this and I've been vocalized been vocal vocal about it previously is when you hold all of your announcements for like a big annual announcement a big annual update and I know they've had at the clubhouse and they've had updates but nothing early material like there hasn't been any material updates on anime on clubhouse on we know the resource game is coming but that's it that's announcement of announcement is for anything like material that's all we've gotten since last 8Fest the announcements are well received last 8Fest but we're still waiting on okay what's what's next with those things who are announced the clubhouse anime