STOCK MARKET TALK by Stocks On Spaces

or as what could happen in the AI space. Not saying it's going to, just keep in my mind open to that idea. Yeah, there are definitely some headline risks with nuclear. Yeah, there seems to be a lot of risks with a lot of things. Like, people have been asking about meta and this, the lawsuit over them, but there's always a lawsuit. I know this one has a very large scale, but I feel that that's always in my way. The AI companies have done a really horrible job about getting the value prop of AI out there to the average public. And I think that's because the people that are in the AI space, the Silicon Valley people, the Altman's. I mean, I don't want to say they're arrogant, but they're kind of arrogant. And they just don't have a, like if I was anti-corribes open AI, I would have commercials 24.7 TV internet, digital, showing how somebody solves a health issue, right? Or someone, how someone made their life better or the average person's life better thanks to AI? I mean, I'd really be on a campaign out there to do that. And I think they're figuring that out now, but they're really behind the eight ball. And they've let the narrative get ahead of them that this is a bad thing for the environment, for electricity, whatever. So it's going to be interesting to see how they pivot. If they pivot in the next, I mean weeks. I hear you. They probably will go on that marketing campaign, but I would equate this to the star quarter back on your team. This guy goes in and does some wild stuff, and he gets traded. You're still going to give him the largest guaranteed contract of all time. Now, sometimes it's not going to work out and your home fans are going to boo you, but they're still probably going to go in and take the chance. I think if AI, if that long-term vision is sold enough, I don't think deep the real money, the big money behind it, won't have a problem investing in it. If they see they can make the money from it. If the upside is enough, the risk will be taken. Yeah, but I mean, that doesn't do as any good as investors. Like, what time frame do you talk about? Five years, 10 years, 20 years? I think what I'm saying is they're going to shove the IPO down our face, and it's probably going to come at a large number, have a good first day or two, and then probably do some of these similar to SpaceX, but my thought is that IPO is coming, and it doesn't really, and it's probably going to do OK. I mean, yeah, I mean, I wasn't talking specifically to the IPO for the, but yeah, OK, I get that. I mean, that's more of a market mechanics thing, right? There's so many mechanics that are involved in getting an IPO out the door that sentiments not necessarily the biggest thing. I meant more as a macro issue of AI, but I get what you're saying. Thank you, yeah. Stock talk to Sohavia, you walking Leo? I already walked Leo. Just a curiosity. What do you think was the biggest story in the market today? Was there anything that you're like, this is the thing we had to talk about? I don't know about news stories, but yields are finally down a decent amount today. Not as much as I'd like to see, but they're down, some material moved to the downside. 30 years trading at 5.17 now. 10 years down to 4.64. Still very high on absolute terms on both of them. Really, when you saw the selling in speculative momentum, which is very dependent on yields, because yields are real rates, we saw that begin. That was the beginning of June, right? And back then, yields were much lower than they are even today. And going into the end of June, we saw yields come down to an area where I would like to see them back at. Last week of June, we saw them the 10 year down at 4.3. Since then, it's been nothing but up. Since June 25, yields have soared into this range. So I'd like to see the 10 year back below 4.5. I'd like to see the 30 year back below 5.1. I know those are just kind of arbitrary levels. It's not like there's not necessarily a ton of meaning behind getting it below those levels. But it would end up looking like a rejection at the highs if we can get yields back down there. For now, it still looks like consolidation on the verge of a breakout. And that's not where you want to have them. So it's nice to see yields down a little bit today. I think the market responding positively in speculative momentum today is part of that. But there's still not low enough in my view, my personal view, to really start getting excited about speculative momentum again. And that may not even happen for a couple of weeks. We have to see how, again, how the war pans out, how these Treasury interventions pan out. Treasury interventions aren't planned until September 9. So it could be percent playing the Trump administration playbook, which has been sort of to threaten things, and then not follow through on them, and then allow the markets or their geopolitical adversaries to get scared. And this was the playbook with tariffs. This was the playbook with the Iran War. This is the playbook, again, with yields now. So I think he's attempting to scare the bond vigilantes into thinking, look, I'm coming on September 9 with buybacks. And if necessary, I'm going to tap the $1 trillion Treasury General Account. Really, it's $960 billion as a general account. But that's the threat that's being made. And it didn't work for the last week to get yields down. Today it's starting to show a little bit of softness. But that's what you have to monitor, really, is going into that September 9 Treasury intervention date or supposed Treasury intervention. Who knows if they'll even institute those higher level buybacks or not. Drunken Miller obviously came out for some of you saw that both Warsh and percent warped for Drunken Miller for decades. And Drunken Miller came out and said, you guys are fucking up. You should not be doing this. And I think he made a good point about the fact which is that the bond market remains the only remaining fiscal disciplinarian, which is the way he put it, which I think is a nice way to put it. Remains the only fiscal disciplinarian left in the United States. But Congress has no fiscal discipline. The presidents we elect on either side of no fiscal discipline. The American public is very little fiscal discipline. But the bond market does have fiscal discipline. And his argument is once you start interfering there and intervening there on the long end, that we've really abandoned all sorts of fiscal discipline and that that's a bad thing and that markets will respond to that. And I think he has a good point to be frank. I mean, obviously I'm a big Drunken Miller fan, but I think that that's a pretty sound logical point. So we'll see. They may not even intervene. If yields can bring themselves down to a more comfortable level by the time September 9th rolls around, then they may not even intervene. It's the same thing with the tariffs stuff. We would get to these tariff deadlines and then the countries would come with a negotiating table. And then we'd be like, OK, no tariffs. You're fine. So it may be a similar type of playbook the Treasury is taking with the bond market now, but we won't know for another two or three weeks here until the 9th. So yeah, that's the kind of the state we're in now. yields finally responding somewhat positively. But we're not quite to the intervention date yet. And I still don't think they're low enough in absolute terms to really, really inspire a trending market again. To get a trending market where every day you wake up, the market's green. You expect it to be green. And it doesn't really need a reason to be green. To get in those kind of environments, you need real rates at a stable level. It's not necessarily even where they are. You need them at a stable level that's relatively stomachable, if you will. And if you look at real rates over the last two decades, that level is lower than where we are today. We're not at a stomachable level for yields if you look at the last two decades. And so yield need to be lower in order to see equities to trend comfortably in my opinion as a group, not like, oh, there's strength in one of these sectors, not like that. But I mean, as a group for equities to trend, I think you need yields lower. So we'll see. That's what remains my major focus. And I'm not a macro guy, but occasionally, the macro becomes increasingly relevant. And I think we're in a stage now where the macro is increasingly relevant. So that's where my focus is on yields and hoping that they come down in the next couple of weeks. OK. I did write some of that stuff down. I know we like to go to the panel. So we're going to come back to some of those conversations. I appreciate your stock talk for kicking us off there. Options, Mike. Why don't you jump into, let's go around the panel here. We're going to have options, Mike, re-logical, Ryan, I'll come back to you as well. And we'll get monotid to start us off here. I'd love to hear what you guys are watching. Honestly, specifically, you guys can tell me how your day was. But what I want to know is what conversations you think were the most interesting to have today if there's any new stories or anything like that. Well, we're writing some of the stuff down. We can double down on it. But yeah, Mike, stop. I think doing good. I think the big, I think the stock talk covered bonds really well. I think the other big conversation is crypto with this nice bounce up into the 80 area. And an 82 being the next level really needs to clear. We have Bitcoin really waking up. I thought that's an interesting story. But I think this market, real story here, is this market is in going nowhere. If you look at the candles on the spyglass three days, you're stopping at the eight day, bouncing on the 21 day, and they're very tight, very small range. We're waiting for tomorrow. You got GDP, durable goods, and PCE tomorrow. So we're going to get a bunch of inflation data and see how the economy is doing, and then see how we react to that. And then, oh, yeah, we got this little company and video work reporting tomorrow night. So I think it's a really story of hurry up and wait and just sit here until we get that information. And then we're going to get, obviously, Jackson Hole Worse speaks on Friday. And I think a lot of people are looking to that as will he make a policy change there? And I don't mean an interest rate change, because they generally do not touch interest rates there. It's not an actual Fed meeting. But is he going to set forward new policies on how he wants to approach things and some of the things he's been talking about and put them into play? So I think there's just a lot going on here, and I think the big conversation is less is more. I mean, it's just waiting till tomorrow. Maybe tomorrow we wake up after some of those numbers. The semis continue to look kind of sickly to me. They're trying to bounce today and video had a nice bounce after yesterday's slaughter. But earnings tomorrow night, sand disk, and micron gapped up and sold off. Hood had a good day. Hood and coin. Some Bitcoin games are moving. So I think you just have to look around stock talk brought up a bunch of different names. But overall, this market is pretty quiet. Volume is 19 million shares with 40 minutes to go. It's unbelievable. We only did 32 million shares yesterday on a full day trading. And we used to do 16 million an hour on average for the first to give you an idea. So you get just an idea how far volume is down right now. The first hour you see these 16 million shares alone on the markets. I think the summer period is coming to an end pretty quickly. So I imagine we start to see that number increase. Nope. Two more weeks. Well, two weeks is pretty quickly, sir. I mean, we've been doing this for like six months. No. No. No. Like, OK. I get it. No. I'm sorry. I have so many people. Here's my thought process, Mike. I could tell you from a very different perspective. I have had, you know, there's conference season. And there's not conference season. The summer's not conference season. There's not as much going on. We did the wolf summon in the area. And you know, everyone's like there. They're on vacation doing their different things. September is very much conference season. And that starts next week. I just, I'm going to the hood summit. That's the end of September. That's pretty cool. I'm going to a future proof, which is also a cool event as well. For anyone who's closer and the like the the advisor or whatever institutional side of it. It's a well put together event. Sactoberfest as well in New York. That'll be cool. But conference season is back. So I imagine we're leaving the Hamptons house. The starting to get a little colder in New York. It was like 60 degrees the other day there, right? I think that I mean, it was overnight in the 50s, but it's still I think it's I think we're leaving the Hamptons house this soon as well. I'll say. You got to see got it next week. There'll be nobody around. And then we come back. And the first week after Labor Day is typically a slow quite week is what you guys are some people excited to get the kids out of the house as well. Oh, yeah, well, that's happening right now. Like Florida kids are back in schools. College is going back already. I know around here my sisters in Massachusetts. Her she's a teacher. They start school tomorrow classes. So it's gone. So we can we sell a week and a half out here. So I think the summer season ends with future proof. I think that's when the summer season ends. There you go. I do get burnt every year, but you guys have never seen me. And I don't think that's the biggest surprise. I've seen you. Yeah, well, everyone has now. I also went on Tanner's live stream today with the camera on. I got people telling me I think they look like I think they I look like Jonah Hill. Jeez, which was maybe just today or something. And there's also a very wide range of Jonah Hill. Uh, I don't see that. I don't see that. I don't know. Yeah, so my camera's not great. I need to get a new camera. What's up, Brian? What's you got anything you want to add? What do you think was the biggest story today? What do you think on crypto? Ryan. I asked Ryan. I asked Ryan to talk me out of BM and R maybe piling some like November, January, $30 calls. And yeah, he talked me out of it. He was not a fan.