Let’s Catch Up by Mark Monroe

Yeah, it's actually straight for the jugular of the markets. No, let's start with the economics first, because we got CPI coming out next, I mean tomorrow, you know, the market been kind of stagnant these past few days or whatever. And I know we got, I see Moody down there, we got some traders, some investors on here, kind of wondering what's going on and why CPI plan such a big role and, you know, Wait, you said Moody's here? Yeah, I see Moody down there, Moody Boots. Bring it on, bring it on. I see. All right. Okay. So while we're waiting, you know, and I'll give my quick little sermon, so to speak. And then, essentially we'll get to the rest of the announcements. By the way, if you guys can hear us, like give me like a emoji on your Twitter space to let me know that you can hear us, because, you know, I still have PTSD at one time I felt like I was born in my bag and everybody was just like I can't hear you. So you just fine. Okay. Those thumbs up everybody. Just a thumbs up or something like that because every since then it's like it's yeah. Okay. That all right. So I see some of the emojis. Okay. Thank you. Thank you. Okay. Let me let butter in real quick. Come on in buddy. Moody. How you doing, man? I'm doing great. I'm free Charles on celebrating my father-in-law's birthday right now. So, you know, just enjoying a beautiful day. They've been blessed. Well, glad you could join us, man. Glad you could join. All right. And muzzle tough and like I'm and much success and everything else to see your father. So. All right. So let's talk about it. So what do you want me to give you? You want me to give you the data that they're, you know, they're quote-a-quote feelings everybody or do you want me to give you my real thoughts? No, yes. Real thoughts. Okay. So you just want the real. It's for a quarter. Yeah. It's for a quarter. Okay. Bet. Okay. So I believe that essentially that this CPI is definitely going to affirm the suspicions of everybody, which will probably lose towards us having another rate hike. I think the Fed wanted to hold off for October going into a November election. Of course, they didn't want to make it political. So which means that essentially you will probably see a rate hike happen in either November. So which is post election or you will probably see it in December. I think that what the Fed is probably trying to do is say, okay, let's do two rate hikes in 2026. And then ultimately going into 2027, let's see how the data plays out. Because again, people think that essentially the as soon as you do a rate hike, like for example, the last rate hike has anybody really felt it yet? No. So that typically takes about six months, four to six months to actually enter into the system. So essentially like that first shock hasn't even hit yet. So essentially you're going to be sending another shock, let's say in November or December for another 25 basis points and then sit back and watch. You know, I think that honestly the market kind of like shrugged off a little of the pain and some of the fear thanks to I think it was Fed Chair Williams out of New York. I think that he was ultimately calming the markets a little bit, which is crazy because I always tell people don't pay attention to what you hear from the voting members. They're just giving you their opinions. And they're easily able to give you their opinions because of the fact is they don't have a vote this year. The people that you need to be paying attention to are the people who do have votes. And the crazy thing about the New York Fed, they always have a vote. They never have an off year. They're always in voting. And yeah, so when Fed, when Fed member Williams speaks the market listens. But the interesting part is we're kind of like hitting this like and I made some pretty wild predictions earlier in this year and saying that essentially that probably by mid-2027 we're going to see a lot of things hit the fan, which is ultimately that the mark I believe that the market is leading towards a massive sell-off coming in 2027. And the reason being is because of the fact is that there's too many things that equal a mixture that is not a good taste for the market. It's kind of like going to a like, I'll control it. I was remember going out to a bar and essentially it's like you know you asked the bartender to surprise you and you start seeing them do all these like combinations and everything else and you take your first sip and you're like, I don't like that. Yes. Yeah, so I think that that's honestly where the market is ultimately headed because of the fact is that you have looming significant debt that honestly it's not showing you any pathway as it pertains to the US coming out of it. Things are getting more and more expensive. People are not getting hired. People are getting laid off. Food is still expensive. I think that honestly the cost of living is ridiculous. I think that you're going to probably start seeing more and more evictions. You and I were just speaking about that offline. Uncle Charles about, you know, it was an interesting stat that I heard about like what is it 144,000 people that live in Atlanta and just got evicted. Yeah, it's a big crazy right now. And it's not just Atlanta. Like that's just that's just you know one data point. So when I look at the CPI number, I think that honestly the CPI number will probably either come in line or just either off plus or minus by a point based upon the the reading. Now the real is telling me the real is telling me that essentially that we might have to we might be walking into a revision later on down the road. Makes sense. Makes sense. I think that we will be seeing a revision down the road. I think that honestly that you know from what we're seeing as it pertains to the economy, the economy is definitely weakening. And honestly like people don't realize that wars are very expensive. They become extremely expensive. And essentially it's like that's just another thing that like you know if you had done on your bingo card for 2026, congratulations to you. You need to go do the you need to go play the power ball. For the rest of the average individual that did not have war on their bingo card for 2026, well you know you got to really think about what does that look like as it pertains to budgets for 2027. Now another thing that I'm also worried about is also one of the things I had was I believe that what's also going to have a massive impact on economics is the fact that you know we've deported a lot of talent out of the US. And one of the things I said the one thing I said like it was a few years ago if you guys some might in fact check me if you like. But I said it on numerous occasions when you start removing the talent that ultimately does the jobs that the average person doesn't even think to like ever want to apply for because of the fact is like hey the pay may not be as comparable or as competitive and essentially it's like it's the jobs that ultimately nobody wants. Those are the jobs that other individuals were taking that were not from the US. And also mainly those prices were keeping certain things down though it was keeping it was keeping prices pretty low. Now that that talent is gone or that has been has been significantly cut. Then essentially it's like now you have to go out and you still need talent. And so what's happening is that you have to pay for higher you have to pay for higher cost talent which ultimately drives the price. See here's how we ultimately like I think and this let me run the clock back a little bit like because honestly I think that I think that honestly your average person is not going to tell you this. So let Uncle Mark do it because I feel like I'm on now. I'm not a why in so I guess I'm going to I'm an on correct pretty much. Okay. So let Uncle Mark gather around people at the dinner table. We're about to have a conversation. Okay. So here is here's the real. We literally went through a period of time when easy money policy was amazing. Easy money policy fed rates were like we're pretty much damn near near close to zero. And ultimately it was easy to do pretty much practically anything in that type of market. Then the fed started tightening because of the fact is you know when people start making more in those areas like think about it like this. When you go from an entire city or let's say a vast portion of the entire city goes for making let's say 75,000 to let's say 125,000 dollars right. Okay. That's good. Everybody's like yeah everybody's making money but here's the thing that you don't pay attention to. Here's the part that a lot of people didn't pay attention to when everybody's earnings go up expenses go up. So when and how does that expenses go up because those businesses and everybody else that surrounds that area they see that exact they see that exact same data. So they're like okay well you know we realize that our demographic spenders they have a little bit more disposable income to spend. So essentially and then on top of that we also have employees they're going to want raises. So essentially we raise our prices a little bit so then that way we can appease those things. Now here's the problem. Like remember in the best way I can give you is I'm not even going to give you like a fortune 500 job I'm going to take a very very basic down to barbershops because I feel like if you can understand it from the level of barbershops then you can understand anything. So just take it from the perspective of if you journey the clock back with me let's say 10 years the average haircut was about between let's say 20 on the low side all the way up to let's say 50 dollars a haircut right in 50 dollars you were you were big spending for a haircut. Now you rolled a clock a few years now it's like those bar the 50 becomes the average. Now you rolled a clock up now we're at 75 then you roll the clock up again and to the current now you're between 75 to roughly 100 bucks a cut. Now has the haircut change? No has their cost of living change probably have their expenses probably gone up? Yeah has the materials that they use has those costs going up probably yeah. So if those costs are going up then also they're going to raise that cost and ultimately let them let they're going to let the custom rickety that cost. Now if they don't power to them they could probably they could probably like get by and everything else and you know keep their prices low but the average barber out there or the average hair stylist or the average person within the services department they were all raising their prices. Now here's where the economics starts to really start to get sticky and it starts to get hot in the kitchen. When people around you when the market ultimately starts to see a decrease as it returns to their annual salaries and everything else well what does that do towards the businesses that surround you because now their prices are already at a tip top they are now they now they start feeling like the tip top and essentially it's like there's no longer sustainable. So what happens you're going to see some businesses you're going to see some barbers go out of business that are not willing to make the adjustments quick enough or you're going to see them ultimately make those adjustments and they're going to eat that cost and they're going to probably either be at the mercy of whether or not their finances can also take the financial hit now. Now just as I just explained that entire concept now imagine that for every other industry across the board I'll run it back for you and I'll make it shorter all those people that were in tech remember in 2022 that started to get laid off all those folks that were before 2022 they went for making $100,000 a year to 175 because of COVID so their prices were up and then essentially that raised the catpex for the companies and then the companies were like okay hey they're investors they're stockholders were like hey your catpex spending is ridiculously high you guys need to bring that down and so what do they do to cut catpex spending hey where are you they lay you off or you have to take a pay cut or you guys take a different role people got laid off and so now essentially it allowed them to establish a new normal as it pertains to a new equilibrium as it pertains to what the cost is as it pertains to talent you saw talent also like so when we say that markets all markets go through correction that is so true which you see as it pertains to the job market they're going to a wicked correction possibly even a potential bear market everybody that tries to hide from the sun can only hide for so long until essentially the sun goes around the it comes around and essentially everybody gets their lick in the sun so I think that that's what we're seeing right now that's hitting and it's just a roll it's it's like a rolling thunderstorm that's happening across the board and people are asking okay hey well when will this end will it has to come to its capitulation point which I believe it's going to probably hit sometime next year does that make sense yeah makes total sense and I guess with what you were talking about I mean that they're from the economic standpoint mark but what you know all this you know just a switch gears just a little bit all this around the AI talk and how AI has taken people's jobs and they're going to do this and do that and I was watching something on the news yesterday where this one doctor is sitting up her saying that you know AI is going to be used more and more and and you know in the medical field and all over the place so just you know kind of you you're out in Seattle you know take one of the tech centers what are you guys hearing out there just about the real the real stuff to the ground I could kill somebody say hey I can kill up everybody I don't believe none of that but here's what I can tell you and and I'm gonna okay like let me let me let me because like I said I'm a little rusty from doing these things so like let me let me let me let me let me unpack that can I oh yeah I mean that okay all right so so here's where I see in Seattle you know Seattle is epic is one of the epic centers for AI town if you want to know like where the top talent is hired as a pertains to AI is definitely Seattle is definitely San Francisco and is definitely Boston so essentially