MARKET TALK. BLACK SWAN INCOMING? EQUITIES, CRYPTO, OIL, BONDS.

I'll never question it again. Anyways, stop bullying them guys. They're going to have a currency until next year when you're going to next day in the United States. Man, do anything, get to this bear market. I'll do anything. I'll rebrand everything. I'll leave the space. I'll do anything. I'll do anything. You call the pump. You just call the pump. I'm sure. I don't even care. Whatever I need to do, I'll play that part. Whatever I got to do to get this market move in. I'll do what it takes, fam. I'll do what it takes. You guys know, if we got to do twice, we're going to move. It's going to move over. We'll do it first. It's going to move over. All right. Do it. I'm going to move by, by spread. I'm going to move by him. I'm going to locate Popeye. I'll do anything it takes guys. We'll find Popeye. We'll get him over like whatever we got to do. You know what I'm saying? But spread, dude, I love to pass the mic. It's from your thoughts on this markets. See if you're in the crypto world. If you're in any trades right now, what are you feeling? Hey, kid. Thanks for having me. Again, Hightoni, Landy, Ryan, M. All the other guys who are listening and ladies. Ben, for me, nothing changed. I don't get maybe because I'm also going to my 40s soon. Sorry, Ryan. And I mean, these markets this October, I'm going to celebrate 14 years. It's going to be professionally. But I started watching the markets 16 years ago. So for the first two years, I just got my tooth teeth. And I lost, like I would say, a nice amount of money. And after two years in the markets, I started taking them more seriously. But yeah, I said that I don't see that the first rally as something to get me super excited. Or this rally again to get me super excited. I don't want to throw any shade or be disrespectful for other people. But I've seen so many things on charts and in my portfolios. And I'm not going to get excited at the first two rallies like this, especially the way that we don't have substance. Someone threw an interesting comment yesterday. And they said that because I made a comment saying that these two rallies were built on quicksand, I sound like a guy who was shorting the rallies. I didn't. I sure did the first part. I got stopped out once. I made some profit on the second time. It happens. Only someone who is not trading will make fun of a trader who's getting stopped out, et cetera. But to say it again to reiterate what I said yesterday, why I said that these two rallies are built on quicksand? Because in a bigger part of them, not all of it, they were built on shorts being squeezed on purpose. The biggest issue of liquidity for the crypto space tether is not printing liquidity. So we don't have big retail participation. We don't have the foundation being built on how strong buttons were built in the past. Maybe something changed. I saw the ETF speaking up a little bit of the slack on USDC. But like I said, for me, not the first rally was important, not even the second rallies is the most important one. Although I have to respect price. The most important move, and you heard me, Landy, saying the same, is going to be the one which is going to come after. So I really want to see when the next pullback is going to come. How the next pullback is going to look? What type of velocity we're going to have on it? Where are we going to stop? How much are we going to stay there? And after that move, I will have a better assessment of if the bottom is in, the bottom is not in, et cetera. The higher we went, the more chances we had for the better market bottom to be in. But even so, I want to see if 74 is going to hold, if 74 is not going to hold, for me, it's going to be 66, the line in the sand. If we drop under 66, I think there's a very high probability that we're going to take out the last lows and we're going to pre-new lows, meaning that most likely the bear market continues. Above 74, I flipped neutral. So this is the position that I feel the most comfortable in. Because I have a lot of clarity. Like I posted yesterday, I don't know, something clicked. And in the way I'm positioning myself, I feel like I'm so in tune with the market. Like Ryan said yesterday, I'm in congruence with my higher self. And it's like I'm downloading information from somewhere above. And yeah, I've been expecting this. Move a pullback is due on risk assets as well. We see what's happening with the bonds. Now everybody's going to be a big bum. Everybody's on Twitter and crypto-tipters going to become a bond expert, although they were mentioned in the last few months. The XY is ripping. For example, I'm not trading crypto right now by the way. I'm waiting for some levels to break lower for me to go short, otherwise I'm not going to take any position. But I am long dollar versus the Swiss franc. And I think it's going to go much higher. I'm short Euro, although these positions are the same almost, but I have like very, very good set up. So basically, I'm long king dollar. I had some trades yesterday on metals, which were very nice. Besides that, what can I say? The same old, the yields are ripping. Ten years going higher, two years going higher. And my indicator, my indicator, not well said like that. The indicator that I used besides VIX to see if there are some underlying problems, the option adjusted spread, the high yield option, justice spread starts to knock on the three handle door. That's why you heard me what I said. So dollar ripping, yields ripping, and with the high yield index spread going higher. And without S&P printing new highs in August or being in somewhat of a distribution phase. For me, this is like a very similar set up with four to eight weeks before we had the Trump tariffs last year. So I think something is cooking under the hood. I cannot pinpoint it. I'm not going to make some black swan calls, recession calls. I think that's very, very silly to not say otherwise. And for now, I'm just waiting for the markets to do this thing. On the crypto side, I just want to see where Bitcoin is going to print the next higher low if it's going to be a higher low above 66 or above 74. And based on that, I'm going to do my judgment and add to some of my position or just start shortening on purpose and hedge my current spot positions. Besides that, I don't know, I'm really, really keen to see what other people are saying. One of the topics, and I know I might be a little bit boring because I don't speak about Bitcoin so much, et cetera. But I'm watching other things which for me are very, very important. For example, if you remember two weeks ago, I mentioned the banking sector. And again, see the big banking index, the KBW dropping and printed a clear distribution. The key area is about to lose some importance to port as we're speaking. So higher yields, higher interest rates, higher dot plot, the interest rates for 2022. IWM is breaking lower. Obviously, since the small caps are going to be the first ones who are going to be hit, it's going to be a very interesting Q4. I welcome it. I love volatility. Unfortunately, people think that volatility is only one way, but for me, volatility is where I thrive the most, especially where moves are very violent. So I expect what's going to come in Q4. If it's not going to be any breakdown, and we're going to hold above these current levels, be it and I'll buy higher some of these risk assets. If not, for sure, I'm going to be there to scoop up when people are going to shed their pens and flip flop for the 50th time this year from Berto, Berto, Berto, Berto, Berto, etc. So if anybody has any questions, I'm all up for it. And as a weird weird, I'll mention it in the video when I said where I'm going to be wrong, which I'm going to post out on the 1st of October, the weird correlation where for the first time since 2019, Bitcoin broke above the daily moving average 365, the simple one, but couldn't rally much higher. And he's the same type of setup that we saw before COVID, when also Fed was expansion their balance sheet. So there are a lot of small things that if you put them together, we should make you to be at least neutral. I'm not, again, I'm not calling for recession, crashes to pitch up like that. I'm just calling for a bit of precaution here, and especially at some of the Alcoins rallied really, really hard. So a pullback in Alcoins beat 35%, 40%, it's still going to be very nice and very healthy. If Bitcoin is going to be able to maintain at least 66, I'm not next to the next drop, which most likely is going to be in the next few weeks. Dude, Tony is going to murder you. He's been calling for a black swan. You just called him out publicly on a space. I don't think, I don't think, I don't think it's over for a spread. Oh, fuck me. It's all on Tony. I can't take it. I have Crocodile skin brother. I've been, I've been like in real trading offices around Europe and Asia. And some of my, like the guys who trained me, you have no idea. Whatever you're going to say now, it's going to be like warm. I'm just joking. No, actually, I absolutely loved your take and genuinely think, you're right, I'm obviously more of the black swan mindset. But so that's the thing is like, I have really kind of been calling for this exact environment and set up to come together the way it is. Not just in Bitcoin land in crypto, which literally hit the exact level in technical indicator to the dollar that I called, which was the volunteer-be-end basis line on the monthly, went to 87k after making people think the bottom was in, which is exactly what I said. And now, like the confidence I have in some of this cycle stuff that I've built recently and done some testing around, oh man, it's, it's, you know, it's about as ironclad as I can get it. It's the same way people view the power law and quantile model because, you know, they can see that it's done what it's supposed to do and keeps doing it. Well, my thing does that also. And, you know, I guess we're going to find out which ones of those things work. But anyway, look, I just shared a chart recently. One thing you said that stood out was brilliant, is everybody's going to become a genius about bonds. And like, that's the way crypto is. It's like, as soon as something becomes the narrative that everybody's a genius about it. But like, just before like bonds became a thing, I was looking at it really close to actually, you know how people were posting the M1 or M2 displaced by X amount of weeks to show that it like synchronized with Bitcoin really well. And I was the guy who was like, nah, don't do that. It just does that in that little square box that, you know, these particular dudes are showing, but if you zoom out, it doesn't do that. Well, I displaced the TLP against the SMM2 and the P500 by 2,222 days. The chart is on my timeline. It matches bottoms and tops fairly well. It almost like sort of access support for the S&P 500. And the displacement shows that it's topping out literally right now. And you saw what happened to TLT after, you know, it just absolutely tanked, even made new lows and everything, complete and utter regime change. I found a bizarre chart where interest rates sort of act as support for the DXY. That's also on my timeline somewhere. Maybe I'll share some of these things so everybody can see it now that I'm talking about it. So I've been on the mindset that dollar was gonna rise. Dollar's gonna rise as a correlation one of the events where all of these sort of things crash and puke into the dollar at once. People seem to, I'd look, we're in Bitcoin land in crypto. We hate the dollar. Gonna replace via currencies, I get it. But Bitcoin ain't there yet. It's the almighty dollar and everything's priced in USD. So when the market panic said all goes into the dollar and there's like just the breadth effect where all of the panic sort of steam rolls, things all sort of de-leverage and people get liquidated. It's a self sort of triggering system. And that's why bulls take the stairs, bears take the elevator. When this starts to come undone, it's gonna come undone fast with bubbles pop. So look at the dot com bubble. AIs in a bubble. And honestly, the way people are talking lately is totally the whole new paradigm thing. Like Tony, what are you talking about? Look at the AI capital investment. It's never going, it's a new bull market. As literally we are like the most peakiest peak ever, most concentrated, most overvalued stock market in history beyond 1929. And yet we're saying it's a brand new bull market. That is absolute delusion to be honest. I mean, let's be real. Even if we think it's a brand new bull market maybe in our Bitcoin land here, to say it's a brand new bull market outwardly like that, and let's be real. If it's not a new bull market in Bitcoin and it is instead the end of a major, major, major bull market and say the stock market, you know, certain currencies, certain markets, certain industries. My big thing is, so the big thing that really stood out to me recently was the Dow Jones ratio against the S&P 500. If you lay this thing out in a range across by 170 years, put oil behind it, oil's breaking out of the range up and the Dow Jones versus S&P 500 ratio is breaking down. Now if you really think about what that is telling you is the industries of America that run on oil are going to be basically priced out of profitability. So that tells me oil's gonna go up. We're gonna have a major regime change in terms of how the world functions business-wise. That's why the business cycle disrupted. That's why things are haywire. And as the world sort of figures out this stuff out, it ain't, it's not gonna be easy for a little bit. Like uncertainty is why this stuff, market crash on uncertainty. And we have more uncertainty almost than ever. The interest rate hike was the first one of those where people expected the Fed to go the other way and they raised instead.