Bitcoin, Altcoins, MACRO. Inflation Rising. Noise?

But if inflation stays high, obviously, the Fed is going to most likely keep rates elevated and potentially even raise them again. I think most people are in the camp that they're going to raise it one more time here in 2026. It could be more than once. This obviously puts pressure on risk on assets. It puts pressure on tech. It puts pressure on crypto. It puts pressure on Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins. Reuters reported that after the CPI release, traders put the odds of an October Fed hike right around 47%. And before these numbers came out, it was right around 20% before the data was shown. Another way to look at this is the dollar's rising, treasury yields are rising. And then, going hand in hand with that, you get stock futures falling before market open there. So, that's kind of the skinny of what's happening today, exactly like what's going on right now. But I do think, if you look at the 12-month opportunity, I still think we've got a phenomenal runway here, in my opinion. And ideally, we handle inflation, the oil risk, eases. And I think those are the big conditions. And then, obviously, you have the war, too. But markets just want to be able to move away from a restrictive Fed at this point. And it comes back to liquidity, as we've talked about many times before. So the market will get bullish when we start to see some of these things play out. It's interesting because I feel as if a lot of people are still just spending money. It's interesting what we're seeing with gold, too. Why gold is falling here? I guess it's short-term reaction, but we'll see. Maybe gold ends up performing well in an extended environment where inflation is running hot. But it is interesting that it's selling off so much. But I don't think it's isolated to just one thing. The Iran conflict is certainly impacting energy and supply there. It's now telling us that, hey, we're probably at risk for higher rates. And investors are showing that they're reducing some of their risk. I listen to a lot of the trad-file spaces and a lot of the stock pickers and traders have already been reducing risk for a little while. When you look at just the sell-off that we've seen across the board with tech and the AI, space, it's pretty telling. But I think it comes back to your time frame. Where are you really your position? Are you position for the next two, three months? Are you a stock picker, slash trader, or are you looking at things more long-term? It really does depend on your position as an investor or a trader. The conditions we need, I think, in order for Bitcoin and crypto to really take off, which I do think we get there, we need to get past these midterm elections. That's going to happen regardless, so that's good. We need to get past the November 3rd midterms. Because right now, the market doesn't know exactly what to do. Once we get through there, I think that'll be a nice, helpful path. Whatever comes out of that will be good, because at least we'll know where we're going. The good thing is this is not a crypto problem, it's not a Bitcoin problem, it's not a demand problem, it's not an adoption problem. There's still a lot of institutional interest here. There's still ETF demand. Yes, you're going to have outflows and inflows, etc. We're still growing in a lot of the big areas, stablecoins, tokenization, the agentic economy, privacy. I think the other thing we need outside of just getting through this election is a path where we understand where the Fed's going. Right now, it's all over the place. Eventually a rate cut would be amazing, but markets right now are just pricing in another hike. I will say with all of this happening, Bitcoin sitting here just shy of 83,000. It's again showing strength compared to a lot of other asset classes here, which is very telling. Obviously you've got inflation and oil, which aligns with the war. These are just things that we need to reverse. If we get to a spot where these things aren't as pivotal and important, then all of a sudden we could start to really see a broader crypto market move. I'm still looking into early 2027. I've been saying that for a while, the 2027 really looks solid and I still feel as if that's the case. That's where I'm at right now. Same thing goes for the AI build out and that whole area of the stock market. It needs the same things to happen, just like Bitcoin and crypto do. I'm still bullish long-term, but we certainly have some volatility here in front of us and some things that need to be resolved. I think when we talk about the inflation hedge argument for gold and I guess lesser for Bitcoin right now, I don't think it's wrong. I just think it's very early to call Bitcoin an inflation hedge, a true inflation hedge. I think eventually it'll be that. I think gold is that it's interesting how it's reacting here this morning, but we just need to get past some of these sticky points, man. We need to get past the oil fears, the inflation fears, the yield fears. Until then, I don't think we're going to see extended rallies. The good thing is we've seen really nice bounces off of our local bottoms. Most of those for all it's happening in June, same thing with Bitcoin. Since that time period, which has been pretty risk off, crypto is actually bounced. We're in a consolidation period here. We're not dumping off here. We're just eating the news honestly. I think the real bullishness will start when inflation is not being talked about. I think that's really the big one and from a macro standpoint. Even with the Iran war, I thought we'd get way, way deeper corrections. I think it's more or less inflation if I had to pinpoint it down to one thing, because when we get inflation rising, we get other things happening that hurt risk on assets. We yield and then the dollar, the dyx going up. I'm just getting caffeinated by the way, guys. About halfway through my first cup. That's where we are. From a crypto standpoint, we do have a couple outliers, some things that are moving against the grain. There's always still a trade, regardless of any environment. Talked about some of the privacy plays. One of the smaller caps yesterday, Alio, Alio, it's up another 18% today extending its rally from yesterday. We talked about, so we're seeing some nice moves off of some local lows from some small caps. Then a few large caps have made some decent balances as well, especially even last night we saw some nice moves from Uniswap, Quant made a nice bounce off of the $200 range, which it seems to be holding up there, which is good. We've seen some nice moves out of Starknet, another privacy play. It's STRK. Injective has been showing strength this week. There are still some opportunities in the market. I think our fear and greed index kind of tells us exactly where we are right now. We're basically right in the middle, 53 on the fear and greed, which is just smack dab in the middle, neutral, just kind of a no man's land. It's not bullish, it's not bearish, it's just here we are, we're stuck. Bires and sellers have basically met in the middle. We're at a stalemate, like watching an arm wrestling match that nobody has to advantage. That's where we are. We need some things to break our way. Again, one of the shorter term to midterm time frames is getting through these elections. We'll have some type of clarity there. Hopefully the Fed gives us some kind of guidance, some forward guidance. I know that's something that New Fed Chair said that basically won't be doing that. I think the markets would like it if we can get some kind of clarity that says, hey, here's the plan for the rest of the year kind of thing. If there's any kind of indication there, then at least we can, whatever it looks like, pick up the pieces and keep it moving. But it's again, it's another time where I think this is just testing our patients as investors. It's testing your mental fortitude and just stay in the game. Find a way to stay alive during these times. In my experience in crypto, I'll tell you guys, you spend way more time having to just sit there and stomach a lot of noise and volatility. You spend less time actually enjoying the gains. The beautiful thing about crypto is when the gains come, they come fast. I go back to even like 2021, those four months that we got in 2021 literally changed my life. That's how quickly it can happen. I think it's important to keep that top of mind. You're kind of in this thing, 60, 70% of the time, you're kind of just maybe even more than that, 70, 80% of the time. You're just kind of waiting around. You're just kind of in the space. You're finding little things here and there in the short term before your real long term high conviction plays make a move and then boom, you get this big move. And I think for some people, they can't stomach that level of patience that it takes to just stay and stay pat and continue to remain bullish and have that conviction for when that time comes. And when that time comes, again, you don't have a lot of time to react. Anybody who's been around for the last six years plus will tell you when we've had these bullish times in the market, they happen pretty quickly. I will say it was kind of an outlier with Bitcoin this last cycle because it was just kind of a slow grind, Bitcoin only bull run. But as I mentioned many times, I think we're going to have another big all coin season. This one's going to look a little different than it did before because before it was mostly driven by retail, mostly all driven by retail. And there was just less out there. Now I think it's driven by institutions and what fits in those buckets. And there's a lot of those names within privacy, within payments, within tokenization, within the agentic economy, RWA, interoperability, perp dexes, layer ones, well established infrastructure plays. We've talked about what we're looking at in terms of where we're heading here. But yeah, that's kind of that's kind of overall read right now the situation. That's kind of my breakdown. So if you guys go ahead and share the space.