AI Summary
比特币、Solana 及以太坊在政治不确定性消除后集体反弹(BTC 重回8万美元上方),主持人讨论此轮上涨逻辑、AI数据中心风险与以太坊做多机会。
- 市场普涨:比特币约80,380美元(+3.3%)、以太坊(+3.9%)、Solana约97.46美元(+3.6%),纳指涨2.34%、道指涨2.6%,油价下跌近3%。
- 共和党大胜(参议院多取数席、众议院领先约30席)被认为消除了政策不确定性,是风险资产反弹的主要催化剂;但主持人认为特朗普仍掌握行政与司法资源,实际政策变化有限。
- 高盛指出约45%的美国数据中心扩建计划面临风险,源于民主党胜选及对大科技、区块链的敌意。
- 主持人立场偏反大政府、反社会主义,认为新政府部分政策可能适得其反,但强调"无论谁执政,关键是找到赚钱方式"。
- 政治规律讨论:执政党掌控全局后往往在中期选举失利,特朗普支持率仅32%,民众对经济与油价不满,民意转向速度极快,Polymarket预测准确。
- 交易员"High Function"分享:10月初起等待以太坊在2200美元强支撑做多,现已重仓做多并获利;预计比特币短期难创新高,97,000美元附近为上限,更看好ETH/BTC走强。
- 以太坊技术面在各时间框架呈筑底形态,波动率回升被视为积极信号。
结论:政治不确定性落地后市场情绪转多,但应聚焦ETH/BTC等相对强弱信号,在关键支撑位分批布局而非追高比特币。
Transcript
morning good morning that play to the end. We uh we had uh Bitcoin, Salona, Pump and man,
I think we just hit 98 bucks on Salona. I was uh closing out grid bots trying to grab
that money trying to grab that money. I just closed out about a dozen grid bots in the
last since the market opened. So love it. Nice nice little rebound there. Let's uh sorry.
I'm just looking at Salona right now. Let's see what Bitcoin's doing 80,000, 380, 80,000,
380 up 3.3%. So as we know uh uh huge huge huge um huge huge huge uh blue wave right like
historic uh ask kicking uh for Trump and the Republicans. I mean literally they needed
four Senate seats. I think they got seven and last I heard they were up 30 on the house.
So now does it really change anything? No because you still have Trump and he still controls
the DOJ and everything like that. So uh you know he's kicking veto everything. Maybe they
get some done. What what what we do have and why I think the market's pumping is um now
there might be some other news just came out. I don't know but uh I did notice oil down
like 3%. So let's see uh let me check that. I mean down to like we're at 92 or something
like that earlier down like 10, 12 bucks in the last couple of weeks but yeah let me take
a quick look because um maybe something I don't know maybe just let's see let's see where
oil is. 9337 down 2.85 and Nasdeck up 2.34 Dow 2.6 S&P 1.7. Um we're killing it here
on uh crypto 80,000 380 like I say up 3% now Ethereum 3 up 3.9 Salona 97 46 up 3.6% so
listen market's hate uncertainty right now our certainty is two years of gridlock uh then
we'll we'll regroup but um you know it might not be good for some uh you know uh Goldman
Sacks came out today and said probably 45% of the planned US data center expansion is
now at risk with all these democratic victories uh you know they may uh they're kind of big
government anti capital they they hate Elon Musk they probably don't like they want to
throw out a lay eye and they don't like blockchain but it is what it is the people have spoken
so how do we I heard Justin say it earlier how do we make money how do we make money
that's what we need to ask ourselves doesn't matter who's running things one thing I'll
tell you one thing that I'm kind of impressed with I think it's kind of a good thing things
turn fast now listen I was a political science major it's very hard for the controlling
party when they get full control to uh um you know not get killed in the midterms happen
to Barack Obama happens to a lot of popular presidents Trump's at the all time worst 32
percent rate we got the wars on popular even people who like Trump before aren't happy
so this is not a surprise um I am surprised how well polymarket called it but things change
fast so um listen I'm not I'm I'm anti uh I don't like big government I don't like socialism
I don't like uh a lot of the people that got in and I think it'll be counterproductive
but what I'm seeing is the the nation's willing to shift very quickly one way or the other
and no and no government no no no ruling party stays in when the economy sucks and and
it is really pepe sushi you know set it best you know people are hurting out there gas is
crazy I mean it's I'm not even like I'm so much far less Christensady than probably the
average American out there and I'm starting to notice you know uh I'm starting to notice
so I think it's I think it's a crazy thing but we got high function up there good friend
out there and he doesn't come out much high function I don't want to see out there what's
there what's your thoughts um do you know I've been looking for a long set up on each since the
beginning of October and like I've just been like come on give me show me 2200 as strong support
and as we were dancing across that I uh I went I went fairly long fairly degenerately and it's
paying off right now so I'm happy about that but you know I'm just looking for each drink you know
I'm I expect Bitcoin not to make all-time highs quite yet that would surprise me that would
fucking very much surprise me but I do expect us you know we just left a lot of the liquidity
that was on the upper side of this range and I'm I'm curious to see what it does if we're
gonna push off you know close to the 90 um I think 97's possible but I would be insanely surprised
if we get past that and I'm more focused on each strength right now each BTC has been showing
strength no matter what you're in Tom Lee both man if BTC is just very you've looked very
bottomy across all time frames you know smaller like four hour and even the larger ones and
getting this you know volatility to pop back in when there's no volatility is when I'm like you know
this is kind of gay and it's very hard to read but uh you know the the East BTC is still holding true
I mean it's up by 2.66 percent today I think East is up 7 percent right now Bitcoin up 4 percent
and like you said a lot of the uncertainty has been removed from policy making when you're
going to be in a stalemate you don't have to worry about policy shifts are they going to pass you
know uh clarity act are they not going to pass it's just going to be kind of like okay we can
expect them to fight for the next 24 months and in that time we shouldn't get too much
financial structure changing so I think that brings in you know a lot a lot more risk going behavior
um but yeah and I'm actually not crazily surprised at what happened with the elections I mean
there hasn't been a lot you know you can't be yeah I mean statistically speaking um I think I think
with no Iraq war I think things would have been different I think I think I think I think it would
have been I still think they would have won the house uh and you know but the Senate would have
been I mean this was a shellacking seven seats 30 plus seats in the house I mean that's a that's
a historic uh reprimand right there ask kickin ass whooping taking out the woodshed yeah but yeah
it's not surprising because listen just on this app we've got okay most people here are not uh
socialists not whatever world world the generates in the end we're probably capitalist we're not
probably the most political people we want to get let but even the sentiment here we kind of you
know just just from a cross section of people we're talking to on spaces it was pretty predictable I
I didn't think it would be I thought the I thought everything would be closer but it wasn't it was
but but I don't know I don't mind that it's I don't mind these shifts the pendulum always swings
I'd rather them swing faster than shorter right like if uh whatever happens in four and I'd say
right now it's just basically stalemate right it's a Mexican standoff it's all good we can we can
relax and and focus now after that we'll see but no matter what happens I like that the come I
liked that the pendulum swinging faster right because I promise you a lot of these policies uh that
you know the could we kind of embraced long term social that shit doesn't work right yeah but
but I like it I like I like it yeah and it's not it is what it is we got to make money no matter what
right that's right that's right and like man after the finance acting and like I felt like that
sell-off after that news wasn't deep enough like how can I put this I feel like we should have
fucking drilled harder on the finance news and we didn't right and then you know we get this like
grind upwards to the right that typically ends in in in a nuke which like you know then we get midterms
and then the sell-off into that last night I've been holding this long open since Friday um I was
actually considering I turned my stop-off and I was sitting there like monitoring it I'm like am I
gonna fucking close this position or not um but then we got that reaction you know we definitely
hit another bottom in the bottoms that we hit were all like structural like TA bottoms when it had
that hard reaction off of it and I know that we're moving on sentiment uh but when you see like sentiment
have that like uh when sentiment coinciding with structure right so like the sentiment drags you
down within the structures throwing the the support where you believe that like the technical structure
should be I feel like you know that made me bullish enough to go to sleep last night and just
said love it man well hey good call good call and good to see you man I don't know what time zone
you're on I know I don't see you that much but look any day we're here every day Monday through Friday
man always feel free to come up and add to the conversation because uh appreciate you man and I
want to say I'm gonna follow through here though there's a lot of money moving right now when you
get this much momentum across the market cap like Bitcoin and eat moving like this it doesn't just
like abruptly stop not not typically right so I'm bullish I'm bullish on the weeks to come and you
know I'm excited to see what kind of a pump we can get on ether because we're way fucking overdue
Amen to that well hey appreciate it there's got first thing I want to say uh um up at the top we've
got off now you've been here with me for the last five years half used to actually for a while
there actually adjusted his schedule and he co-hosted quite a bit you know he used to drop out for
years in advance right so to give you a little background on on Hoth Hoth uh
better money manager highest levels really does real deep research looking for looking ahead
right what's he's the first one that came out like three years ago and said hey you want to play
AI play data centers play play energy play copper right so he's always he's always dropping out for so
but we don't see him so much now he's also an entrepreneur has some great business stuff like
I say my wife and I sat down and had lunch with him at the Bitcoin Carfits in Vegas a couple
years ago and just a good guy's been in the Bitcoin mining all kinds of very smart dude overall so
I mentioned it to uh I mentioned it to Justin and uh Justin's really the one that arranged it so
tomorrow night seven p.m. please come and join us support and uh and ask a Hoth some questions we
don't we don't get get much of a dose of Hoth these days but anyway Scott uh man the nice little
pop I wasn't totally expecting this so fast but we'll take it uh yeah and it's a good thing but
how you doing what do you see it out there uh like I said I'm not dwelling too much on politics other than
yeah uh Trump and the I think you've got to ask had it just let's move on yeah I think you I think
you hit the nail on the head that's all you can do right you can move on I mean you're obviously
doing some historic things that happened yesterday uh in terms of uh you know for example in
Kansas first Democrat uh to win a seat against our Republicans since 1932 uh you had uh you know
first Democrat Senator from Texas since 1988 but you know all this doesn't matter anymore right it's done
what's done is done uh you know and it's gonna be it's gonna definitely be 22 months of you
know because he's he's folks don't take office until January so you're talking about 22
months 21 and a half months uh you know it's just gonna be a lot of back and forth a lot of nothing
burger uh you know in the end Scott has the uh the veto I think Mr. Haini was telling me that uh he
was wearing a hat last night that you know he was that now he wears that great uh you know the
the mega hat he had a veto hat on the last night it's something that ever changed with Donald
Jay Trump uh but yeah what's done is done and uh yeah we do have a market that's ripping uh
you know like I say almost 81,000 bit going it's getting approaching it and you know like high
functioning said uh you know definitely Ethereum's ripping up 6.62% in the last 24 hour period so yeah
I love uh I love what I'm seeing uh from market his energy uh traditional markets are absolutely
ripping today I know when I'm like show at 6.20 a.m. Eastern Standard Time uh you know free market
open was crazy I mean it was uh you know the Dow would yes he'd shit the Dow is up 1100 points
right now up 2.1% the NASX up 2.4% uh S&P's up 1.75% so yeah it's an absolute uh risk
and uh you know this is what happens I talked about it on my serial about a week ago from
November to April it historically has been the uh the best six month period if you look at the
if you look at stock market uh the November to April period is the most profitable period versus
the you know the May through um October and you know there's tons and tons of data on that
so yeah I mean like uh you know I think you said it perfectly Ron there's nothing we can do about
this now uh you know I did hear it Trump uh he called in last night I was trying to go to bed and
just lay in my bed listening to uh whatever and he did call into Brett Bear you know from Fox News
and you know he was he was fine you know he's like this is what happened and and uh you know he
is what it is and uh so uh you know he said you know he'll try to agree with Republicans on certain
uh with Democrats excuse me on certain days he's not gonna you know endorse the uh the ManPlay
Women's Sports he's not gonna endorse the transgender surgical shit that uh some of these
wackos and trying to you know get across you know 12 and 13 14 year old little uh you know boys and
girls changing now having sex change operations that's that's only fucking crazy uh you know and but
yeah I mean as we'll see what gets done you know probably nothing we know the Democrats you and I
have talked about this uh we know the Democrats are gonna try to impeach them uh they're gonna try to
do all this crap to them same thing with probably uh he has get the uh