🇫🇷 spared, 🇧🇷 sinks!; Musk's neocloud gloom; Anthropic S-1?; $JBLU

David D. Tawil Subscribe Podcast 1h 16m 0 downloads Added 2026-10-27 #Trending

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美国股市在经历周四的下跌后小幅企稳,期货盘前转正,但巴西大选结果引发巴西相关资产暴跌,成为周末后市场最大冲击。 - 标普500下跌约1.25%,纳斯达克相对持稳,罗素指数下跌约三分之一;期货盘前全部转正但涨幅不大。 - 黄金周末一度跌破4000美元后回到4000附近,比特币跌破8万美元后回升至8万美元上方;两年期美债收益率4.75%-4.8%,10年期约5%,30年期5.3%,美元指数在101.5附近。 - 周五盘面:SpaceX拟租赁8万个蜂窝塔站点推动Crown Castle等铁塔股大涨;Recruit Holdings财报后涨22%;Instacart传探索出售食品配送业务;美光涨3%、AMD涨2%领衔芯片股反弹;雪佛龙涨3%;美国运通跌3.7%为道指最差。 - 法国周末相对平静,穆迪未下调法国评级令市场意外;巴西则是更大的意外——市场原本预期博索纳罗胜选,结果卢拉获胜。 - 巴西相关资产遭血洗:EWZ盘前一度跌25%,Nu Holdings跌20%,XP跌近40%,Mercado Libre跌9%;败选方尚未承认结果并寻求法院裁定选举无效,局势混乱。 - Visa与Fireblocks方面,Fireblocks否认Visa以25亿美元收购其托管基础设施的后期谈判报道;Visa和万事达均创历史新高,本周将公布财报,支付与稳定币领域动态频繁。 结论:关注巴西政局是否走向承认选举结果,以及本周Visa、万事达和雪佛龙财报对传统金融与支付板块的指引。

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1.25% that S&P was down a half. The NASDAQ was steady relative to what happened to it on Thursday. And then the Russell was down about a third. Futures right now, all positive, not by any massive amount, but nevertheless all positive. In the pre-market, there was some points where it was flat lining, but at this point, up on the green, gold traded over the weekend below 4,000 now at around 4,000. Similar to Bitcoin, it traded below 80,000 now above 80,000. Yeals as to be expected have come in two year, 4.75, 4.8, 10 right around 5%, the 30 year at 5.3, the Dixie below 102, about 101 and a half, let's say a little bit higher than that. In terms of the activity on Friday, crown castle along it with everybody else in the cellular tower space, surge higher because of SpaceX's move to lease 80,000 cell tower sites. Those discussions ongoing, we don't have anything definitive. Robert Hath, the recruiting firm on earnings up 22%. That name has been mentioned by Dave Nukowski a couple of times Instacart in the process according to rumors to be exploring a cell, food delivery. The losers on the day, we had gone through blue energy even though they beat N raised, never the last, it sold off due to everything else going on. In the chip space, there was a bit of comeback, micron was up 3%, AMD was up 2%, just a rebound. That's really it. Chevron was up 3%, we'll get their earnings later this week. American Express, which did report, it was the Dow's worst performance, down 3.7% on the day. France had a pretty quiet weekend, I think on a relative basis, although I'm not on the ground and I'm certainly not a reporter, but that seems to be the party line. Maybe they needed to do it for the purposes of A, trying to gain some semblance of normalcy, to go ahead and host the NFL over the weekend for a game, also so that they stay out of the headlines. They did have a victory in the sense that Moody's did not downgrade France, held their rating as is and that was a surprise to a number of folks. There was a much greater presence on the street of police and so forth. The bigger surprise, I think, though, over the weekend was in Brazil and certainly that's the way the market is reading it. Pre-market, it's a bloodbath in Brazilian-related names, down north of 20% in certain cases. Everything from financials to consumer facing and the way the narrative goes at this point is that folks were expecting Bolsonaro to win. The Bolsonaro platform from Father to Son is generally more business-friendly. There was a general sentiment based on what happened in the primaries that there was a good chance that Bolsonaro was gonna win and lo and behold, Lula wins. And so all of the optimism built up in the share prices of various companies and various industries, that air now has to come out of them and so it's going to be a pretty scary day on Brazilian-related stocks. We'll talk a little bit about that as well. And so that's already upsetting markets to begin with. The ETF for Brazil, EWZ, at its deepest overnight was down 20% and then pre-market and moved to being down 25%. New, NU banking or financial, down 20%, XP, which is another financial name down close, 40%, even Mercado Libre, which is, let's call it the Amazon of the Southern Cone, down 9%, Mercado Libre is not exclusive to Brazil. They operate throughout South America, but nevertheless getting hit hard. And on top of that, and this is important, I think, for our elections coming, the losing party has not conceded and is looking to seek an annulment from the courts in the country. And so right now, everything is in a state of, I don't know, chaos, let's say, until such time, at the very least, that the opposition concedes. So we'll see how that goes when the market opens there which is at 9 a.m. Eastern time. So it emits to the show. And in the midst of the show, we will also get Anthropics S1 and 9 a.m. as well. Let me pause because I've gone on for a bit. Carlo, great to have you this morning for the entire show. And I want to go ahead and give you the mic, if you will, in addition to everything else that you'd like to discuss. If you can touch on everything going on with Visa and MasterCard Visa, in particular with respect to fire blocks, fire blocks has denied the report that Visa is in late stage talks to buy it for 2.5 billion. That would be custody rails for Visa is either looking to buy custody rails as opposed to make them themselves. By the way, Visa and MasterCard, both at all time highs. And then just, we are gonna get Visa and MasterCard results this week as well. So a lot of stuff going on in the traditional financial space as it relates to payments and stable coins. But everything else you'd like to hit on, please, Carlo, go ahead. Yeah, good morning, David. Good morning, everyone on the panel and good morning to everyone tuning in to finance daily. Yeah, I suspended today's on-chain radio show because I wanted to stay on the panel because I think this is an important place to be this morning, given what a monumental week this is gonna be for markets on the eve of the midterm election. Earnings coming out concerns about AI funding, but there's a bigger looming conversation that's happening on crypto Twitter and AI Twitter that I think needs to be touched upon. And that is the large scale assault that we are seeing from AI models on the financial system. And over the weekend, it really has accelerated to a point where some are speculating that we're at the zero day point already, banking infrastructure is being threatened, financial houses are being threatened. What we have seen so far, what we know, attackers have executed unauthorized trades through compromised Japanese trading infrastructure, meaning that agents who were assigned authority to trade perhaps on behalf of their users or given API keys to at least monitor these accounts. These accounts may have been compromised and may have executed trades without human approval. AI tools are being used in attacks on financial organizations. We're seeing coordinated AI assaults across the globe trying to get into websites, trying to access credentials. US banks, as we reported even last week, are encountering unvetted agents, AI agents trying to access human accounts and having to block them. AI-related shares are obviously under pressure right now given Elon's recent comment. And I know Brandon will definitely talk about that. But then to put the icing on the cake, the Pentagon, I don't know where drops this announcement that they are creating a program to put every military base on a 90 day, self-sufficiency plan in the event of an imminent grid collapse. And all of this is happening at the same time as the eve of a midterm election and continued instability in Iran and chatter about escalating tensions there. As you noted, oil through the roof and throughout this, Bitcoin has broken 80,000. It's currently sitting at 79. And across the board, crypto took a bit of a hit this weekend, but remains impressively resilient. I think the broader takeaway is that as we continue to go into what I believe is the on-chain economy, the movement of all assets on chain trading 24.7, tokenized assets, tokenized money, digital money that can move faster and cheaper than ever before, which has got, of course, a visa and master card interested in jumping into the party. We are seeing the resilience that can come from an on-chain economy because people who've been sidelined in traditional markets, David, who have to look at the events that are unfolding this week and the fears that are brewing. I'm not saying we are going to have a black Monday, but there is certainly a lot of chatter that given all of this AI market structure compromise and this persistent assault on financial infrastructure that we're seeing across the board from AI. And this is generally for people who have given credentials to their AI that are now potentially being backed or exploited. Most people have to sit on the sideline and wait for the market to open on Monday before they can get access, although there are some limited avenues, as you know, to pre-market access. But on a Saturday or Sunday night, as you're witnessing all these stories unfold in the on-chain economy, you now have the opportunity to trade these markets and perpetuals and derivatives of these stocks that you're seeing impacted by this news 24.7. And that raises an interesting new layer to the entire finance game that we cannot dismiss. So that is kind of what I'm looking at right now. I don't know what to expect at the open today for the market, but based on the concern that I'm seeing in Asia, I'm concerned that some of that's going to translate across the pond to us back to you, David. That is all very helpful commentary. And I'll keep saying the stakes are high, maybe higher than we've seen anytime recently. The entire US financial system is levered to the AI space. And it is critical that it doesn't collapse. I want to add one more point to that, David, because it is critical and I left it out, if you would indulge me. Always go ahead, Carla. So this is not the time to take your foot off the gas when it comes to AI innovation. And if we were to listen to people like Bernie Sanders right now who have been out there vocally suggesting that we need throttle foundation models and we need to put the bricks on AI, a lot of these attacks that are happening are probably happening from overseas players. And we're witnessing a incredible spike in cyber crime right now as they continue to exploit vulnerabilities that were never exploitable before AI. And to operate under the assumption that we would throttle AI would be 10 amount to, we would throttle our most important weapon systems and seed those systems to our enemies. This is not the time to be putting the brakes on AI because I guarantee you countries like China are not putting the brakes on AI. So if ever there was a base case for why we need to continue to push the US leading in AI because it is an arms race and I put a post in the nest that I think is important and timely, we had a very short cold war when it came to AI technology in this arms race that I've described but that war is getting kinetic now. And we're witnessing it unfold faster than I think most anybody imagined it would have back to you David. Super, I was going to say, despite all this, futures this morning are solidly green now and has about three quarters of a percent down up for 10th S&P about the same. And to put some meat on the bones there. So I'm guessing Brandon, you heard the all-in podcast of this past weekend and the CEO, Nikesh, Aurora of Palo Outer Networks which is, I don't know, the world's preeminent cybersecurity firm just to give you a little bit of background on Nikesh. He used to...

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