AI Summary
A trading mentor warns: ignore autumn losses and you face a cold winter; only those who learn and stay disciplined reach spring equity growth.
- Trading equity cycles through seasons: summer's excitement leads to autumn losses, a long winter of doubt, and only disciplined traders reach spring regrowth.
- Most beginners ignore the "winter" and fail to learn from early mistakes, repeating poor decisions and breaking their own trading rules.
- New traders chase fast profits and the thrill of being the "Santa Claus" of their household, but the reality for most is a harsh, cold winter.
- Survivors learn from initial errors: they lower leverage, reduce expectations, and drop arbitrary deadlines for success.
- The key prerequisite is becoming a good analyst first—success takes time and isn't measured by quick wins.
- Longevity and consistency matter more than quick, impressive gains; honest successful traders admit they spent time in deserts and valleys before reaching the peaks.
Conclusion: Focus on becoming a skilled analyst, stick to your rules, and embrace the entire journey—patience through autumn and winter is the only path to sustainable spring growth.
Transcript
Maine and saw Acadia National Park and it was beautiful last year and I'm looking forward
to going back again.
But when you see the leaves fall off your money tree in your account and the early stages
of your development with real money trading, that's not always looked upon as, well this
is a beautiful experience.
I'm glad I'm able to see this.
You don't want it to happen.
You want to see spring.
You want to see the vibrant regrowth of your equity.
And unfortunately most people, most people that start trading with life funds, real money
in other words, they forget there's a winter coming and they don't prepare for the things
they experience in the fall where the leaves were falling off that money tree.
They don't learn from those mistakes.
They don't learn that they are making character flaws.
They're manifesting themselves in their behavior as a trader.
They're making reoccurring, well, poor decisions, I say it that way.
Not following rules that they outmined in the beginning that they would follow.
This is what my model is and I'm only going to trade when it does these things.
If it does anything outside these parameters, I'm not going to take a trade.
But here you are.
There you are on a Friday trying to do something that your model doesn't call for.
You want to experience the joy of the holidays and it feels like Christmas.
I'm making all this money.
That's what you want.
That's what you got in the trading for.
You want to make your family happy.
You want to be the Santa Claus of your own household.
That's admirable.
There's nothing wrong with that.
But the reality is most people are met with a long cold winter.
And they don't learn from their mistakes that they've made initially throughout the gate.
They thought that summer trading is going to be hot.
Miami heat.
It's going to be awesome.
Pretty girls, handsome young men, fancy cars and fine dining.
Somehow it doesn't work out that way.
It doesn't.
Not for most.
For some, sure it does.
I'm not going to say it doesn't happen.
But for the majority, it doesn't happen that way.
Then for those that can survive, the ones that learned by the mistakes they made through
their initial suarie into the marketplace would they go out in the summer time and they're
at the rave of price action.
The thunders beat of price action moving around.
The volatility is exciting.
It's great.
I want to go out there and chase the vibe.
And then fall comes.
And then your equity falls.
And that passion for wanting to get into this falls into a long, cold December and January
and February.
Where you second guess everything.
Why did I even do this stuff?
My family and friends were right about me.
I shouldn't have been doing these things.
Where you doubt everything that got you excited initially.
You're just simply not looking at it properly because you went out of spec.
And that's a season in success.
People that come out of any industry and found success, when they're honest, they'll tell
you.
They'll tell you the seasons they went through.
And I like listening to the ones that are honest and say, look, you know what?
I went through some deserts.
I spent a whole lot of time down in the valleys and I wanted to be on that mountain peak.
I wanted to see sites that nobody else got to see make the kind of mind.
Nobody else really makes have the consistency that nobody else has ever heard of.
The accuracy, the precision, all those things.
I wanted all that stuff.
And I had to learn over time that doesn't happen right away.
And for the folks that learned from their mistakes, they dial down the leverage.
They lower their expectations.
They don't put a timeline on success.
I got to be successful by this time.
I got to make this much money by this time.
I got to be able to quit my job by this date by this year, or my friends and family will
think I'm a failure.
If everything you're doing in regards to learning how to trade, how to use sound analysis
concepts to learn first to be a great analyst, how much time have you spent there?
Because that's the requirement.
You have to be a good analyst.
The folks that make a lot of money fast, I'm not impressed by that.
Those types of things can happen.
But longevity, the ability to find success and live there in all seasons in the sun.
It's an old song if you haven't heard it.
It's actually a classic.
Just came to mind.
I'm gonna listen to it when this is done.
And for the folks that are saying, where's the video at?
You said you were putting up a video.
It's done.
When I'm done jaw-burning, and I'm not gonna talk long tonight.
I promise, I promise you, it's not when there's little trick things where I go for a long,
long time.
When this is done, I'll post a link and you'll be able to watch the video.
The video's about 30 minutes long.
But for the folks that are able to learn from their mistakes early on, they get to experience
spring, spring time where your equity comes back to life.
New growth comes.
Dead things become alive.
Things become bearing fruit.
And since all of us are trying to cultivate and nurture and fertilize our own money tree
in the spring time, we're looking for that to happen.
It just so happens that that's one of the key times of the year where trading really
is robust spring.
But you should learn that the summer that you started with is coming again.
Are you gonna make those same mistakes?
Are you gonna get passionate about?
I don't wanna listen to these guys that say don't trade in the summer, doldrums.
Don't try to trade every single day in the summer.
Don't try to do those things.
These guys are fools.
Look what I just did today and you feel good.
You beat your chest.
You feel like you can conquer anything.
And you even feel so strong.
You wanna talk about other people, talk down to those people.
And then you get smacked upside-to-head with reality.
And you go through it.
They're humbling.
They're humbling moments.
Everybody goes through them.
That's a season or part of the road to success.
If you got into this thinking that this is gonna be, you know, one way straight, this
is easy.
No traffic in front of you.
No tolls to pay.
No inclement weather.
No potholes.
Everything's gonna be fine.
No bugs hitting your windshield.
It's easy.
Roll the thought down baby.
It's gonna be fine.
The whole way.
If you thought that, you probably have had a rear-wakening by now.
When you go through those experiences, those minor setbacks, because that's all that
it is.
You can't say that I blew an account.
I can't afford this.
Well, you shouldn't have been trading.
There's your answer right there.
You gotta be able to afford doing this.
If you can't afford it, then you're not a trader.
You're a hope and a prey.
You're gambler.
You're a lottery trader.
You're a scratch-off trader.
You're hoping that if you do something, the equivalent of taking a quarter and scratching
off this little film on top of a piece of paper.
I hope I win.
If I don't, I still play.
But I hope I win.
That's a gambler.
That's a lottery mentality.
You would be wise to study the people that are very open-mouthed on X, Twitter, whatever
you wanna call it.
If you look at TikTok, if you look at Instagram, if you look at YouTube, all the social
medias.
You can pick up on who is the bullshit artists.
You can pick it up.
These are individuals that don't learn.
They don't learn for the mistakes.
They keep masking them.
They keep hiding them behind personas.
The worst thing you can do is try to emulate me or anyone else.
In success, we usually try to latch on to someone we have respect for.
That's admirable.
I get it.
I still do actually have a tremendous amount of respect for Larry Williams.
I just think his analysis concepts, I've outgrown them.
That's not a knock against him.
It's not a knock against anyone else.
You have to find something that makes sense to you.
That's a season in success.
It might mean painful pruning of people that you've looked up as his heroes and say,
I'm thankful for the time I had to spend with you.
I learned from you.
I took some insight from you.
I grew as a person and as an analyst and as a trader.
But my time with you now has come to an end.
I still hold respect for you.
I just can't subscribe to your views anymore.
I can't remain tethered to you.
That's a season in success.
And all of you should want that with me.
One tethered to me, always trying to get something from me when you should be more excited
about the discoveries you're finding in your own hands with the things I've taught you.
That's the goal.
It's not the constant continuous interactions between us, which is fine.
I get it.
It's fine.
But it's really winding down.
If you're not preparing for a time when there is no ICT, there's no engagement on a
day by day basis.
When in the viniusis.com, you're going to require your own motivation, your own stimulation
to stay motivated to do this.
In the next two years, I'm sure there's going to be a lot more millionaires.
There's a whole lot more that you don't see.
They don't care.
They don't care what other people think.
They don't care to tell other people they've made it.
They don't care.
These people aren't going to spend their money.
I would like to know, if all of you that are listening to this and even if that you're watching
it or listening to it as a recording later on tomorrow or down the road, I would love
to see a tweet directly to me.
If you hit seven figures where you're not a seven figure trader because you're trading
prop firm leverage of seven figures, that's not a seven figure trader to me.
Seven figures is you got seven figures in your account that you can take out and cash.
That's a seven figure trader.
It's not against my students who like to use that term.
That's be real because you're not a seven figure trader and everyone outside our community
the same way.
But it looks good, doesn't it?
That's a season in success.
You want to portray it stronger than your hand actually holds.
You want to have like you have the high hand, the royal straight flush and spade, spade,
you can't beat it.
Can't beat it.
That's a season in success.
In the old tongue, in the old country they used to call that fake it till you make it.
Well, when you're journaling, you have to do those types of things.
You have to encourage yourself.
You have to tell yourself that you saw that as it was because what you're doing is you're
conditioning your mindset.
You're opening up the dialogue with that same language and you're convincing yourself
conscious because that's the part of you that's going to say you can't do it.
But you won't hear it until you're about to press the button or it'll start talking
to you as soon as you have the first trade go against you or the first idea in tapering
or the first demo trade or the analysis concept doesn't even pay an out of law.
You're subconscious.
The part of you that wrecked you all the time.
The self-defeating side of you who you have to overcome subdued, wrestle into submission
until that part of you, the shut up.
You have no reason to be talking right now.
You don't have any experience doing it.
So why are you going to talk to me?
So yes, you have to have a divided mind in the beginning.
It's normal.
But you wrestle that part of you that holds you back.
That's a season in success.