STOCK MARKET TALK by Stocks On Spaces

I thought that we would get a lot more breadth expansion. Obviously, you have the RSP green on the day, and it has nice volume. But IWM is just at the lows of the day. There's a clear divergence. There's a big time difference between where you're spending your time in the market. Again, XPI down 3.3%, maybe down to support, maybe you can hold it. I think part of that has to do with the implosion in the genomic names. I mean, that was just like a ticking time bomb waiting to happen. I mean, names like twist or up 10 X in a year. And then you had these tech guys yesterday or posting literally at the highs of this rally about how there's some AI health care bottleneck thesis. And you had these fitness influencers slamming calls on MRNA yesterday. It's very fitting that you kind of saw top in those names. And those names like MRNA, twist, tax genomics, whatever, they became a much larger part of the XPI. So maybe that implosion has a big impact on the performance you're seeing today. My issue, though, is that while some of these biotech names are holding in, I noticed a lot of them actually at the lows of the day, and they just can't get off the mat. So I think it's unfortunate because, yes, RSP is hanging in there OK so far. That speaks a lot more to large cap. If you remove tech from the S&P, the S&P's not doing well. Again, that's been the whole thesis is that, yes, we know that. And these other sectors are going to start to be able to get that breath expansion in rally. And that may still come. But I still don't see it. And that's a little disappointing to me because I've been extremely bullish on the breath extension thesis. But I don't think it's thing. You were waiting on earnings for that. And maybe that will bring it into this more. Yeah, you see, that's what I think. It might be earnings or it might be a good 10-year bond auction tomorrow that brings down yields substantially. Maybe it's the end to the Iran War that really brings some yields down sustainably. Maybe, maybe, maybe. But I do think that even when I look at a lot of these stocks and I look at their underlying charts, there have been some bounces, obviously. Like you need to die at the WM, the XLF, the Bouncer, the 200 day. You need to RSP to bounce where it's in. But it still has to prove itself beyond the bounce in my view. I'm not saying I'm bearish. I'm still fully invested and even a bit levered still. But I did take them. I did digress a little bit today just based on mostly, I cut positions that were names that are still sitting on their lows and can't get a bounce. And they're just showing relative weakness in a market where the market's making new all that noise. It's just not the type of holdings that I want to be holding personally. So I had to make those calls today. Maybe I'm dumb and I sold the bottom and all those names rebound. And specifically, like the biotech's have been extremely weak. I thought there were maybe bottoming here, but a lot of them losing lows of their recent range. Maybe once the dust has settled with some of this genomics names, maybe the generalists can come back and supply a bit for some of these consensus long names and biotech to move back to the upside. But yeah, I mean, so far, no bid. So just, yeah, obviously I'm not getting bearish at the lows that someone I'm saying I'm fully invested. But I was just hoping for a more emphatic bounce off the lows. And I don't think we've seen that quite yet. There's one thing, I'm sorry, I'm going to cut in there. I just want more thought. Yeah. Well, people tell you technicians tell you all the time when you're in the midst of a correction to pay attention to the names that show relative strength. Because coming out of the correction, they're going to be the best performers. And I think that's extremely true right now. And it's unfortunate because the things that we're showing a lot of strength recently, right? Like when you had the RSP and IWM down 8% to 10% in a correction, you had the S&P near all time highs. You had the cues basically hit an all time high while the RSP and IWM was at the lows. And then what happens whenever you start like moving out of this kind of correction, you get essentially the cues making and the S&P, the mark cap weighted stuff making to all time highs. The mags obviously been leading the charge there. So it's about safe and safe. It's about safe and safe, I think. Yeah, for safety names, names with big market, big cap tech, big cash flow. Right? I think that's where they're hiding it. And in that AI trade, there's worries out there under the covers, but it doesn't seem to matter. It's a little concerning to me though, because like, again, not trying to be bearish, but I'm very open-minded on both sides. Like, so I just want to keep saying that again, I was very long yesterday. I'm just slightly less long today. The concern would be more so that the AI, or the act trade or the large cap tech trade ends up being the last place where people have been hiding just like they did in 22. So that risk is still in my view. Like, if I saw the breath expand, the way I would want and small caps are participating and risk goes back on, I would never even say these words. But that level of risk on for me, because I watch markets every day for years now, that isn't here yet. And maybe there's a catalyst that sparks it. Otherwise, it could be like a safety trade, like you said. But eventually, what happens if nothing else is working, and only a few things are working, and then eventually those names get to their full valuation and people start ringing the register than what, nothing's working. So you just generally want to see breath in my view. Like, yes, if you're trading the SPX, you're just trading spy and you're trading the cues and you're trading the mags, like, okay, fine, yeah, for sure. But I'm just talking about a more healthy market. I would like to see a more healthy market as all. Listen, I don't disagree with you. And in time's past, I'd be the first one sounding the alarm over how thin this market is. But market's changed, and this is just a very different market. And this has kind of been the case for a lot of the last year. It's been very thin, especially when we're up here in the highs. I don't know though. I'm actually like, you gotta look back at your charts because if you think about what happened before the war in Iran, it was actually RSP that was leading. It was tech that was heavy, and it was weighing on the spike. Six or seven months now, right? They warned her. So, well, so here's the thing. No, no, no, but we were, so the RSP was the leader leading index in the beginning of the year from January and February until eventually joined on the selling. But then, a couple months ago, like after July 1, basically after the 70s had a huge rally in H1, you saw a big time rotation into everything else, and everything was working. I mean, Brett was very good until the end of August, and then that's when the correction began in Brett. So, I wouldn't say that this has been a thinly traded market at all. In fact, I thought that you had a lot of things working throughout most of this year. And I thought, you know, this wouldn't be any different. This correction would just be, maybe I just need more patients here. And that's why I'm not like going to cash because I don't think anything is necessarily bearish here. It's just not proving that it's extremely bullish yet. And I'm just waiting for that. And, you know, obviously when I look at my portfolio, I'm going to be honest. Like, I cut a bunch of names today, but the names that I left, you know, most are green. You know, maybe like nine out of 14 names. Nine out of 14 names are green for me. So, you know, there is still a chance that maybe we're still in the bottoming phase for some of these things. I just thought that we would have already seen a stronger bounce. And I just, in the breadth. And I don't think we've seen that yet. And maybe it's a problem. I hear you. I hope we get it soon, too. I don't disagree. I mean, I'd rather, I'd like this market to broaden out. I'm not trying to say I don't agree with you. I just think this can go on for longer than people realize. Evan, are you back yet, sir? I am. I am. Thank you. I appreciate you for having us. Just guys up here. I don't know if anybody. Do I sound bad? No, no, you sound fine. Yeah. You sound horrible, like normal. Yeah. Well, I was going to invite a bunch of people today, but I figured we didn't hear much from Stock Talk yesterday. It might be an hour and a half or so. Let him go. Stock Talk. Why? How dare you? Is he talking? I'm afraid. Stock Talk is not. I'll get it. This guy, what are we doing? It's almost like he's mad at me. I'm just going to make it awkward for a second here then I'll come back to you, logical. We always have some good topics, questions that we can go down here. I've been watching the ARCG as well. Kathy would. We also just did an interview with her and she was saying that healthcare and AI in that direction is what she's most excited about right now. Yeah, sure. Of course, but she's a top indicator, dude. I mean, her fund is opalot and what do you know about her? Like, twist biosciences up from 26 to 200. And then you have galaxy brain people. But starting to say, oh, this is the bottleneck. It's like, dude, it's in the training of 50 times sales now. And this is when it's a good layup. It's just, and then what? 10 X genomics is training of like, well, 30 times sales growing mid single digits on the top line. I mean, yes, the technology is very interesting. That's why, again, how many months have I been pounding the table on so many names that were in ARCG? I talked about tempest way lower. I talked about PSNL, WGS. These are all ARCG names. And they're all way higher now. But now it's like, when the crowds, when you have fitness influencers saying, I saw a post that one of these guys is like 100 K followers is putting 50 K into like Moderna calls yesterday. It's just like, and his caption was, I hope they cure cancer tomorrow or something. And it's like, all right. This is where we are now. So I think that there's a time to be smart money. But I think that is good. Sorry, sometimes I'm just a little premature on the thing. And you just get excited about my question. Tempest say, I had quite the intraday turn around. I didn't necessarily see a story on it. It was up by 5% of pre-market with the early trading. And then just dumped and I was down 10, 13. So yeah, it's all the same trade, bro. I mean, go look up VNA. Go look up twist, TWST. Go look up 10 X genomics. I mean, these things are all in uploading because, realistically, I thought there was shorts 50% ago. I didn't short them. I literally wrote a post yesterday. And my post yesterday was, I wish I had the balls to short twist TXG, ArcG, DNA, PACB, not RXR. I wrote that yesterday. And then I didn't short it because honestly, I thought there were shorts 50% ago. And who's to say they wouldn't go up another 50% from here? I try not to get in front of these things. But yeah, man, I mean, this trade, if you've been paying attention to it is extremely stupid. For the last couple of weeks, I've even had a bunch of posts saying, like, OK, guys, don't worry, because the genomics squeezed has reached the likes of DNA and PACB-Pacific biosciences. And RXRX, these are names that are generally speaking not viable businesses. They have debt on the balance sheet. They burn a ton of cash. Once that, it's one thing to pump twist, who has partnerships with Google and Anthropic, and has a very legit business model. And they're not in debt. They have cash. And they're break even on property, whatever, the viable business model. There's a difference between pumping that to an astronomical evaluation because it rides this theme of AI, health care, blah, blah, blah. There's a difference between that, tempis, et cetera, versus companies that just have not really, some of these companies don't even have commercial products and they're getting pumped. Like, yeah, I took a gene editing stock yesterday, Pride, Medicine, PRME. I just figured it's going to go to that, too. And then this morning, it was up like 15% on it. I dumped it at the open. And yeah, it started dumping with everything else. It's just because this stuff is getting really dumb. So I think it is probably the end of the momentum for AI and health care trade. For now, I think when you get an unwind like this, I don't generally think you're going to get right back to the highs. I don't think the incremental buyers are there to push these things much higher. I'm not necessarily talking about tempis. I think tempis probably will be OK. But who's buying twist that I don't know, 50 times sales? Or maybe not, it's not a 40 times sales. It's just a really tough move. You don't have an incremental buyer in my view. If it does get pumped again, it'll be on thin liquidity. People would probably sell into that. I just think that this trade is probably over for the time being. And yeah, there was a time to get in. That was three to six months ago, which, I was on these faces saying it. Now, definitely don't touch. Yeah, Paul's there. Let's try stock talk again, see if we can squeeze into his tight schedule of calls. This guy. Thanks. This guy stinks. Long ago, why don't you cut your head calling him, see if it's just me? You stock talk. Either, buddy, you know you can text him, right? You'll probably look at that. No, it's more fun if I make it awkward on the spaces. Everyone knows. I enjoy it. I appreciate you, logical. I want to double click into tempis. I saw some stuff around what that turnaround was. People were saying this AVB or, I don't know, AVBP? Or is it AVBP news? I don't know. But I want to bring over to options, Mike, again, because I know he's only going to be up here for the next 10 minutes or so. And Mike, first of all, I appreciate you again for helping start the space today. We got to think it's a different tone of Michael on the spaces recently. It's, you know, you would have talked a lot about that lack of volume for a while. And, you know, it just doesn't matter. And if I'm going to sit there and let it matter, then I'm not going to be trading and making money. Yeah. How do you know? How do you go?