EMERGING MARKETS | CHINA A.I. DEEP DIVE W/ EMXETF - Full Transcript
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What is up everybody I'm in an Airbnb in Huntington Beach, California
So I'm assuming the Wi-Fi or the 4G is good enough here and you guys can hear me
I'm just gonna continue moving along like you can
This is gonna be a fun day today. We got the FOMC rate hike decision coming up here in a couple minutes here
Let me actually get the title changed or get some of our friends in here. Welcome. Welcome everybody
How you guys doing welcome Mary and
And Drunken Miller Apostle Jordan
Oop, I hit mute everyone
Zach
Pumpsky Electra
Ramo
We got tin foil in here Mark Jonah Jonah's profile picture is a jacked leopold. That's actually pretty interesting
Corey, Contrarian, Raj, Howie, Uta, Super Kings, MB, Sarahunt, V
What is up everybody welcome to stocks on spaces live live
Will
Fed rate hikes incoming
rate hikes
incoming question mark
All right stock market talk we got a title change
Let's hit some out send out some of these invites as well
Not everyone knows we are starting early here today and then we will jump right in to the conversation. This should be a good one
There aren't really any earnings after the close as well. All right some invite sent out
Couple things to know going into this FOMC meeting first of all you guys a lot of you guys do know that I did end up taking a
My largest prediction market bet ever that the Fed is not going to raise rates now that bet has since gone against me pretty aggressively
At when I took it was like 40% chance we raise rates something like that or sorry 60% chance we raise rates 40% chance we keep
rates steady
We are now sitting at a point to where if this loads
See stock talk down below
Ryan you can hear me right if I can get a thumbs up sir. Thank you. I'm here
Yes, yes, yes, my computer is being slow and loading
Even when I'm on the wifi it's not necessarily working but I'm assuming when I was checking earlier on the prediction market
There's like 15% chance we keep rates unchanged something around that right now so it is
We're getting a rate hike. We also do get a summary of economic projections along with this meeting
The SCP that tells you what the Fed is looking what they expect going forward and includes the dot plot
Which is telling you where the Fed expects interest rates to end the year at and the year after that at
There was a JP Morgan comment this morning that this may be the last Fed dot plot that we get which could be the case
But we are
five minutes away
90% chance there about a raise rates by 25 basis points here is 0.25 percent would bring us up 3.75 to 4 percent
There's about a 10 to 15% chance that they leave rates unchanged. I see Greg Gavin down below
Shout out to him if he wants to come up
Stock talk. I know we talked a little bit about it yesterday
How you feeling for this FOMC meeting?
There's definitely a lot more anticipation into this one than the last couple
Maybe even years of FOMC meetings
Yep as usual. It's like the most important meetings to the last one right?
You left on my tweet. It's the reporting meeting of my life
Yeah, it's kind of a week how we think about every time but no this one is actually pretty important because
Mostly of where yields are all the curves, right? I mean yields are at a
major multi-decade breakout spot on the long end of the curve and
You know, I know we say every time. This is the most important FOMC meeting
This time it really is important because it is going to be a
Factor and deciding if we get a blow out and yields or not
I
Think it's probably the first time in a long time where a hike might actually have a positive impact
on bonds and a negative impact on yields which is counterintuitive but
probably the first time and
Over five years where that would potentially be the case
I talked about this a little bit on the discord stream that I did last night but
Really the thinking there's quite simple
There's a shot that a hike today could convince the markets
That the Fed is willing to fight inflation and that therefore on the longer-end expectations
Inflation expectations might actually come down
Which might bring the longer end of the curve down so that is a possible scenario here obviously
That's not necessarily what will happen, but that is a possible scenario
And what you would probably want to see if you're a bull here and you're watching the bond markets if you're an equity bull
and you're watching the bond markets and
You know, we're pretty much at a 93% of a hike here. You'd like to see
yields
Come down on that on that decision so
Two minutes here two minutes all right Ryan to miss but live FOMC in the title first we'll do that
All right two minutes away
We also do get a summary of economic projections with this one a dot plot all that stuff does come out with this
But we are looking at that interest rate decision right here in two minutes
Like I was saying about 90% chance to leave rates unchanged about 10%
Sorry 90% chance that they raise rates about 10% chance that they leave rates unchanged as with the CME fed wash tool saying
Prediction markets are closer to 15% chance that they keep rates unchanged
We're gonna find out here in a minute reminder the Kevin Worsh press conference comes up at 2.30 PM
Eastern we're about 30 minutes away from that one
you know
Worsh and Powell are two very different people
Two very different Fed chairs
So you know a lot of the rules that we kind of were able to learn in for the last couple years
You know you kind of got to retest and relearn and I think today is a big big part of this
You know Worsh doesn't want to be bullied and it does kind of feel like he's being bullied a little bit by these markets by the bond market to do a
rate hike
But we'll see all right
60 59 did now. Okay. Sorry. I got both my tweets ready
I do have my prediction market bet that we are going to
Leave rates unchanged and I have written that off as a loss pretty much for loss
So that is what it is
Okay, the anticipation here we go
1200 of you guys already in here get excited for this decision. It's a
Do you have the new squacker that's still getting faster than you
That is fake news
Yes, fake news news squacker. Yeah
Fed raises this count rate a quarter point to 4%
12 to nothing was the vote for the Fed funds rate action
That votes unanimously for the first rate increase since 2023
Fed officials see Fed funds rate at a medium of 4.1% at the end of
2026 same at the end of 2027
I'll there 3.9% at the end of 2028 3.6% at the end of 2029 and 3.2% and the longer run
All but two officials who submitted that see at least one more 2026 height
Bed official see December
2026 27 unemployment of 4.1% versus 4.3%
And no, no, not all Fed decisions. I'm beneficial see 4 PC inflation of 3.4% in
December 2026 2.5% in December 2027
Again the fed raising rates a quarter point as expected the S&P futures pulled back
From that last
Move higher now trading up about 22
There you have it
So four federal officials think we get two more rate hikes in 2026
6, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 12, think we get one more and then two think
we get zero more.
Wow.
Alright, what's the market doing?
I'm having a chance to look.
I'm going to look in one second.
Um, spies near the low day.
I WM just came down very hard from high of day all the way to low day.
Cues are pretty much unchanged here.
Regional banks are tanking.
Carries getting hit the hardest.
I honestly, I know you don't have any interest in so far, but I would want to look at this
one over the next couple months if we stay at this point and don't raise rates more.
I do enjoy this company for the long term, but I don't want to buy it in a raising rate
high environment.
Alright, we are digesting this a little bit more.
FOMC press conference is in 28 minutes now.
They did hike.
I will say the new squacker was pretty lightning fast on that one.
He did a good job.
The dot plot says, like I was saying, four federal officials think we have two more rate
hikes this year.
12 federal officials think we have one more rate hike this year and two said zero more.
Now, Kevin Worsh probably did not put a dot plot on here, so this doesn't have everyone,
but yeah.
And also I will say next year's dot plot, they say that basically it's a higher for longer.
All but four of the fed voting members think we're going to end the year next year
above four percent interest rates to say we're going to end between three point five, three
point seven, five.
And then one says we're going to end between three to three point two, five.
So there's one real dovish fed member.
I wonder who that is, but 16 out of 18 fed members expect to rate out.
Yeah, okay.
And then unanimous decision.
Interesting.
So I was telling Ryan that I thought a good.
That's surprising.
I was pretty surprised.
I mean, unanimous part surprising because like there were a couple of there were a couple
of members of the fed, even going into this meeting that said it wasn't.
Then thing was the right thing to do.
So that's pretty that part surprising, not the height part, but I think the unanimous
votes somewhat surprising.
Yeah, I agree.
I agree that unanimous vote was off the hook.
I would never saw that coming.
And you got now most from saying they see another rate hike this year.
All right.
What is the 30 year doing?
That is the real question here.
30 and 10 year.
Let me look.
Ten year was already down about 0.043% going into that decision and it barely budged from
there.
So it's pretty much where it was prior to the decision.
It's still a 49% standard.
If the long end of the curve doesn't come down from this decision, there was no point to
raise raise.
Yes.
That's true.
30 years make a new love day though.
Yeah, 30 years coming down a little bit more than the 10 year.
Yeah, that is nice little move lower.
Markets are coming here pretty strongly.
Okay, we do have the press conference I go saying here 26 minutes.
Now the summary of economic projections does tell you a little bit about what they're looking
at going forward.
It does seem like he is going to talk about a little bit of a hawkish term.
But yeah, my prediction market is 0 and I will be not using that for a while again.
How could this happen to me?
Oh, pretty.
I'm pretty muted reaction on individual stocks, even with the index is moving somewhat.
I've got no videos.
They might be waiting for a frame to speak.
Cues are actually liking in SMH 2 so far.
Yeah, 30 years continuing to move lower.
That 5.312 or so through 4.
Yeah, 30 years, 30 years making new lows.
Okay, that is what we needed.
I would be curious to see if this what this also does to grow.
The year is soft as well.
It's a project to move up on that.
Yeah, two soft as well.
Homebuilders getting home builders and regional banks are going to hit the hardest right now.
XHB, KRE are going to hit the hardest, which is weird.
Like higher interest risk.
Yeah.
This call this pressure for him is going to be important.
If he tries to just not answer questions again, that could be problematic.
The marker is going to want some clarity on what he's thinking.
He's not there to you.
I think there's a scenario where he he plays the.
I had to go with what the panel decided type of of role.
And just kind of try to stay in between trumping them.
I mean, he voted for it too.
Yeah, but I was on sand like he just had to like go with the crowd type of messaging.
And maybe trump comes after all the governors.
If I was him, I would have been the lone dissenter and shown to trump and been like, hey, listen, I voted for it.
Don't come after me.
You could have done that.
I wonder what Trump says.
I think that does call more into.
That's what how about credibility?
Oh, I think you get.
Yeah, I mean, I will.
He got to think he's me.
He's been Trump's been really on a roll lately.
The last couple days to going after everybody.
So I got to think this is just another person he's going to go after.
He's just not having a good week.
I'm waiting for the truth social comment.
It is going to come out in the next five minutes.
The dumb fed chairman.
Who even.
I did this.
Sorry.
I.
And you're not quite at low a day, but it is coming back down.
I'm a little worried to see that.
It doesn't hold on to it tomorrow.
It felt.
Kind of obvious we were going to get to move lower today.
If it got this kind of what happens tomorrow.
Are these yields actually able to kind of get a second day in a row of moving lower?
Worst case scenario would be a spike tomorrow.
I don't think there has been a single day of.
Let me see.
I don't think there's any been any days of back to back action with yields actually coming material.
Yeah, the 10 year is winding down slowly here.
30 years now down point zero five eight.
That's pretty big move.
All eyes continue to be on interest rates.
10 years.
All that stuff here.
I remember back.
Which day.
I meant the 30 year down point zero five eight.
Not the 10.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
It is now basically at its highs from 817.
It's where it was at.
Close to where it was on 999.
The problem is.
We are moving lower.
Boy, these are still elevated levels and we really haven't.
Taken down any of the thing that we've done over the last two, three months in these yields.
Yeah, it's going to take over a hundred.
It's like a happened one day.
It's going to take a trend.
Boy, I'm just saying it's it's at 102.
Like that's it's have to cause behind the yields.
There probably is only so low that they can even get it themselves.
Yeah, I'm seeing crew.
It's a lot of hundred and two.
Did it have a spike a little move lower on this one though?
I know the Fed doesn't really impact it, but.
Nah, not really.
No movement.
We still got 2000 you guys in here.
We've got it a couple times.
Press conferences in 21 minutes.
We're going to listen to it live on here.
Crystal clear quality shout the Ryan.
So yeah, get ready for that.
You should definitely make sure you're following the speakers up here as well.
They will improve your experience on this app.
Let me try and find.
How the note changed.
Here's a change in the Fed statement.
I mentioned it's a little slow so I might take a second but.
Yeah, 12 to zero vote.
Raise rates.
Economic activity is expanding in a solid plate pace while uncertainty.
Remains elevated owing in part to the geopolitical developments domestic.
Spending has been resilient productivity growth is strong and capital investment is robust.
Job gains have kept with the workforce and the unemployment rate has changed little inflation remains.
Elevated sorry inflation remains elevated today's policy action will support a timelier return to the.
Committee will deliver price stability.
This is a lot shorter remote of a note.
That is what changed.
This is what changed from last.
Specialist today.
Okay.
So market did move actually a little bit higher since our last looks maybe trying to reverse back now feels like we're in for a chop 30 minutes here next 20 minutes maybe.
What is finally.
30 or four.
But I'm really getting it consistent.
Move in yields the 10 years rebounding now.
This is this is a really muted reaction.
I mean.
It's really muted reaction here.
I want to hear see how we react to what he says.
I think that's going to be more important than this reaction here.
I mean I appreciate there's waiting for him to say good afternoon before the dump.
Good day.
Good.
I still.
It is good day.
I'm going to go on the.
Second is good day.
That comes out in a red tie.
Hey look, if you look right now like from the like under the there are nobody is on the order book anywhere.
So the market's having to go to both sides to find the quality.
IE everybody's waiting for the presser in the Q&A.
Come on 30 year.
You've.
Where can you is almost back to high day.
Yeah, I WM just turned right back around.
If we end the day with yields towards the highest of the day, we are probably in a dump.
Oh, yeah.
The only benefit like literally the only benefit of raising rates here.
It's not going to.
I mean like the Iranian speaker parliament just said.
It's not going to print oil.
It's not going to clear the straight.
The only benefit of raising rates here is to attempt to calm down the bond vigilantes.
If you don't see relief in yields from a rate hike, then what the fuck is the point?
There's no point.
So they better hope that this comes down the bond market.
I mean, the bond market's already saying that they're too low right here, right?
They raised it to 3.754 and the bond market's really saying you should be up around five.
That's what the bond market's trying to tell us.
I mean, as we're speaking, the 10 year yield is going up, not down.
Bolt's been getting a new move day.
You know, but this week lives up to its name.
This week is just typically a tough week in the markets.
And this one has been no exceptions so far.
Rural is ship.
And with that options, Mike, because you have so much options positioning rolling off on Friday,
you've got a lot of like wacky moves, but the way the position set up right now,
it's going to be tough to go either direction and tell that position closes out on Friday.
A lot of the times now they start closing them out early.
Don't be surprised if after the Fed's done today tomorrow they start unloading and moving,
rolling this stuff out, especially the index stuff.
Yeah, I think they're waiting for this to decide how they're going to roll out.
Exactly.
Meta Tesla all reversing now. Apple's holding well. Apple looks really interesting here.
I mean, I thought that was interesting.
Who's this morning, but when you say 2029, I you on, you know, two and a half,
three years before we get any revenue from them go if they end up staying with it going back into the server business.
I just don't see how any money in tech would be able to stay up if we catch,
if interest rates spiked back up after this.
Well, I mean, the big tech companies have lots of cash when they want to.
I know they're burning it right now. Apple does not all of them.
Well, I mean, they can slow their rate of spend, right?
I mean, if they slow their Pat Peck spend Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta, you know,
they all have tons of cash. The semis are still doing fine and cash.
Do you like one of me, Evan?
What are you posting a meme? Let me see.
I'll give you my honest reaction.
Trump after worse raises into it.
All right, it's a good one. Let's put it up with a nest above.
You really got 60 likes in one minute. How is that even?
It's funny.
I guess they really did like it. Oh, where are you trying to bring?
I just I put that I put the Wolverine meme into chat.
Gbt. I'm told I'm going to replace Wolverine's face with Trump and put out the frame.
But I love it.
It's pretty funny.
Dude, that's a lot of likes really quickly, honestly.
So people think it's funny.
All right. I'm going to start pumping out memes now.
Someone else host.
No, I'm kidding.
Wait, what did you use? Chat Gbt or Cloud? Did you say?
I used to chat Gbt.
Gbt is so much better with photos.
Yeah, it is. It really is.
It really is. I think Astra in general is better, but I think Astra is better on a
pertoken basis than a fable to each their own.
What's your most like post?
I don't know.
I actually might be at huge.
No, that's really cool.
I think it depends on your life in a minute.
Right.
35,000 likes is your most like post, by the way.
Elon Musk said he plans to find someone to replace him as acting CEO of Twitter.
November 16, 2022.
How did you find out what my best of my most like post was that quickly?
Go to your profile and then if you click like the post tab, it like it comes down and
you can see sort by and then popular.
Oh, yeah, they added that recently.
Stock talks got a banger too and he's got a couple 30k plus like bombs.
Yeah, they're like four of them.
All right, guys, I'm going to come back.
I'm going to go down there.
He's done talking.
Guys, I already listened to live in here.
I appreciate you.
No, yeah, I can't listen to it there and here at the same time.
So I'll catch him live and I'll come back and jump in real quick.
Yeah, we will be playing that here in about 13 minutes when he starts waiting for it.
You know, we have some crystal clear quality.
Like I said, shout out to Ryan.
We got this whole like we don't have to explain how he's doing it.
But guy is in the matrix.
Situation is monitored.
Situation is being monitored.
30 year is a little bit off the nose, not that much, but we'll see.
10 year.
Watch the TLT is still the highs though.
Let's see.
So it's the ENT.
10 years still holding at pretty decent high levels.
The 10 years ups since the rate hike decision.
Yeah, it is.
We're at about 4.963 ish.
Well, how many people did you say were saying there's more hikes coming in that would
probably keep it up there.
Yeah, pretty much all of them except for two said there's at least one more rate hike
coming for said they see two more rate hike.
Well, I mean, it would keep the two year up assuming that, but you would actually like
to see the 10 year come down if the market believes that this is a legitimate fight
against inflation because I mean, we're not we're not talking about 10 year forward
rates here, right?
The two year should be up on this and it's unchanged on the day now at reverse thoughts
losses.
But the 10 year, 30 year arguably should be down.
I mean, they are down on the day, but they're not down since the decision 30 years slightly.
Yeah, but I keep going back to the oil thing because I think that's more of the conflict
is more of the issue, right?
And all the count down a little bit into today, which is probably what helped some of
the yields.
I just think that's the higher correlation than those fed rate decision.
Then I don't get it.
High raise rates because they I think they're hoping that it's what in my perspective, they
didn't want to surprise the market and the Fed funds futures wanted this hike.
And they were probably hoping that this would bring yields under control.
And I mean, again, the 10 year and the 30 year are are down on the day.
So that's a silver lining.
30 year coming back down again here now.
We just really got to wait for his commentary to really decide what this reaction is going
to look like.
But yeah, for sure.
And honestly, we probably need to see what tomorrow's action looks like to.
What's the follow through of this?
You know what they say?
The first three modes are the fake masts.
It's just like, I mean, and I can see it because I'm looking at book map and I'm looking
at some of the gaps like there's nobody is sitting anywhere on the order book right now.
So like the market takes these big swings.
There's just looking to find somebody to like try to fill stuff like nobody's doing anything.
They're pulling offers and they're waiting for the actual information.
Yeah, and we are a nine minutes away from getting that more information.
And I do worry a little bit that worse is going to tell us nothing.
Talk about task force, task force, task forces and we're just kind of in the same place
again.
We'll see.
Yeah, you got an over you got an over under on task forces this meeting.
Well, give me give me eight task forces.
I'll take it Ryan.
I want to start with you.
Then I'll talk on this one.
We're getting close to this this FOMC press conference here.
What are you kind of expecting worse to say and sound like here?
Maybe you're some of the questions you think might be asked that I think.
Yeah, I mean, I think pretty much guess what they're going to try to ask them.
Somebody will ask him a political question that he'll dodge.
I think it'll be fine on that one.
They're going to ask them about the conflict and oil.
That's going to be the probably the biggest thing they ask and they're going to ask like,
do you think we're going to keep raising?
I think those are the main questions.
We're getting to know him a little bit, but we've only had two meetings with him, right?
So I think people are still trying to figure out like what the undertones of him are.
Like what's the, you know, between the lines going to be so I just don't think we're
fully there yet to be able to get good read on him.
But I think he'll be okay.
The problem is he's not the most like confident sounding guy.
So like I would like to hear like just personally, I would like to hear him just speak a little
bit more absurdly.
I know it's maybe not as personality, but hopefully he's like maybe worked on that a little
bit.
Just to try to give some type of like, hey, we're in control of the situation.
Like, and not just food like not if he comes out there, start stammering and and
start stuttering over his words and stuff again and having that shaken his voice, which
I first I gave him the benefit of the doubt, right?
First meeting, maybe second meeting, but now you know, your third one will speak with
some confidence.
That's what I'll be looking for.
Stock talks, things are over to you.
We got this press conference coming up here in a couple minutes.
What are you hoping he kind of says?
You know, what are you expecting here?
I'm expecting him to be pretty ambiguous as usual.
I don't think his ambiguity in the last couple of meetings is a product of him being
new to the seat.
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