EMERGING MARKETS | CHINA A.I. DEEP DIVE W/ EMXETF

the longer end of the curve down. So that is a possible scenario here. Obviously, that's not necessarily what will happen, but that is a possible scenario. And what you would probably want to see if you're a bull here and you're watching the bond markets, if you're an equity bull and you're watching the bond markets. And we're pretty much at a 93% of a hike here. You'd like to see yields come down on that on that decision. So two minutes here. Two minutes. All right. Ryan, Tomish, but live FOMC in the title first. We'll do that. All right. Two minutes away. We also do get a summary of economic projections with this one a dot plot. All that stuff does come out with this. But we are looking at that interest rate right here in two minutes. Like I was saying, about 90% chance to leave rates unchanged, about 10% sorry, 90% chance that they raise rates, about 10% chance that they leave rates unchanged. That is what the CME Fedwatch tool is saying. Prediction markets are closer to 15% chance that they keep rates unchanged. We're going to find out here in a minute. Reminder, the Kevin Worsh press conference comes up at 2.30 PM Eastern. We're about 30 minutes away from that one. You know, Worsh and Powell are two very different people. Two very different Fed shares. So, you know, a lot of the rules that we kind of were able to learn in for the last couple of years. You know, you kind of got to retest and relearn. And I think today is a big, big part of this. You know, Worsh doesn't want to be bullied and it does kind of feel like he's being bullied a little bit by these markets, by the bond market to do a rate hike. But we'll see. All right, 60, 59. No, I'm kidding. Sorry. I got both my tweets ready. I do have my prediction market bet that we are going to leave rates unchanged. And I have written that off as a loss pretty much. Full loss. So that is what it is. Okay, the anticipation. Here we go. 1200 of you guys are already in here. Get excited for this decision. It's a... I do have the news, Walker, that's the probably getting faster than you. That is fake news. The fake news, new, Walker media. Fed raises this count rate a quarter point to 4%. 12 to nothing was the vote for the Fed funds rate action. Fed votes unanimously for the first rate increase since 2023. Fed officials see Fed funds rate at a medium of 4.1% at the end of 2026. Same at the end of 2027. No, they're 3.9% at the end of 2028, 3.6% at the end of 2029 and 3.2% in the longer run. All but two officials who submitted dots see at least one more 2026 hike. Fed officials see December 2026, 27 unemployment of 4.1% versus 4.3%. And no, no, no, no. Fed officials see 4PC inflation of 3.4% in December 2026, 2.5% in December 2027. Again, the Fed raising rates quarter point as expected, the S&P futures pulled back from that last move higher. Now trading up about 22. There you have it. So four Fed officials think we get two more rate hikes in 2026. One two three four five six seven eight nine ten eleven twelve twelve think we get one more and then two think we get zero more. Wow. All right, what's the market doing? I'm having got a chance to look. I'm going to look at one second. Spies near the low day. I WM just came down very hard from high of day all the way to low day. Cues are pretty much unchanged here. Regional banks are tanking, carries getting hit the hardest. I honestly, I know you don't have any interest in so five, but I would want to look at this one over the next couple months if we stay at this point and don't raise rates more. I do enjoy this company for the long term, but I don't want to buy it in a raising rate hike environment. All right, we are digesting this a little bit more. FOMC press conference is in 28 minutes now. They did hike. I will say the new squacker was pretty lighting fast on that one. He did a good job. The Dopplot says, like I was saying, four Fed officials think we have two more rate hikes this year. Twelve Fed officials think we have one more rate hike this year, and two said zero more. Now, Kevin Worsh probably did not put a Dopplot on here, so this doesn't have everyone, but yeah, and also I will say next year's Dopplot, they say that basically it's a higher for longer. All but four of the Fed voting members think we are going to end the year next year above four percent interest rates. Two say we are going to end between 3.5 to 3.75, and then one says we are going to end between three to 3.25. There is one real dovish Fed member. I wonder who that is, but 16 out of 18 Fed members expect to rate hike. Yeah, okay. And then unanimous decision interesting. So I was telling Ryan that I thought a good answer. That's surprising. I was pretty surprised. I was surprised because there were a couple of members of the Fed even going into this meeting that said it wasn't the thing it was the right thing to do, so that's pretty that part's surprising, not the hike part, but I think the unanimous votes somewhat surprising. Yeah, I agree. I agree. That unanimous vote was off the hook. I would never saw that coming. And you got now, most of them saying they see another rate hike this year. All right. What is the 30 year doing? That is the real question here. 30 and 10 year. Let me look. 10 year was already down about 0.04, 3 percent going into that decision and it barely budged from there. So it's pretty much where it was prior to the decision. Still at 4.95. If the long end of the curve doesn't come down from this decision, there was no point to raise raise. Yes, yes. That's 30 years. 30 years make a new level of day though. Yeah, 30 years coming down a little bit more than the 10 year. Yeah, that is a nice little move lower. Markets recovering here pretty strongly. Okay, we do have the press conference I go saying here 26 minutes. Now the summary of economic projections does tell you a little bit about what they're looking at going forward. It does seem like he is going to talk about a little bit of a hawkish term. But yeah, my prediction market is not a hero and I will be not using that for a while again. How could this happen to me? Oh, I can't even get into that. Actually, I'm pretty muted reaction on individual stocks even with the indexes moving somewhat. Got no videos moving. They might be waiting for frames to speak. Cues are actually liking in SMH too so far. Yeah, 30 years continuing to move lower. It's at 5.10. 3.3.1.3.1.3.9. Yeah, 30 years making new lows. Okay, that is what we needed. I would be curious to see if this is what this also does to go. Right. The year is soft as well. I'll probably continue to move up on that. Yeah. Two years soft as well. Homebuilders getting in. Homebuilders and regional banks are getting hit the hardest right now. XHB, KRE are getting hit the hardest. Which is weird. It's like higher interest rates. Yeah. This this pressure for him is going to be important. If he tries to just not answer questions again, that could be problematic. The marker is going to want some clarity on what he's thinking. He's not going to give it to you. I think there's a scenario where he plays the, I had to go with what the panel decided type of role and just kind of try to stay in between trumping them. I mean, he voted for it too. Yeah, but I was on Sam. He just had to go with the crowd type of messaging and maybe trump comes out after all the governors. If I was him, I would have been the lone dissenter and showing to trump and been like, hey, listen, I vote for it. Don't come after me. You could have done that. I wonder what Trump says. I think that does call it more into. That's trouble. How about credibility? Oh, I mean, I, you got to think he's, I mean, he's been, Trump's been really on a role lately. The last couple days too, going after everybody. So I got to think this is just another person he's going to go after. He's just not having a good week. I'm waiting for the truth social comment. It is going to come out in the next five minutes. The dumb fed chairman who even a point to the guy in the it's sorry. I mean, you're not quite at low a day, but it is coming back down. I'm a little worried to see that it doesn't hold on to it tomorrow. It felt kind of obvious. We were going to get to move lower today. If it got this kind of what happens tomorrow are these yield actually able to kind of get a second day in a row of moving lower worst case scenario would be a spike tomorrow. I don't think there has been a single day of let me see. I don't think there's any been any days of back to back action with yields actually coming material or yeah, the 10 year is winding down slowly here 30 years now down point zero five eight. That's pretty big move. All eyes continue to be on interest rates. So there's a 10 year. All that stuff here at green and back. Which day? I'm at the 30 year down point zero five eight, not the 10. Yes. Yeah, yeah, yeah. It is now basically at its highs from 817. It's where it was at close to where it was on 999. The problem is we are moving lower. Boy, these are still elevated levels and we really haven't taken down any of the thing that we've done over the last two, three months in these yields. Yeah, it's going to take over 100. It's like it happened in one day. It's going to take a trend. It's probably a boy looking like it. I don't want that. It's not moving. I'm just saying it's said 102. Like that's it's have to cause behind the yields. There probably is only so low that they can even get it themselves. Yeah, I'm seeing crudes a lot 102. Did it have a spike a little move lower on this one though? I know the Fed doesn't really impact it, but nah, not really no movement. We still got 2000 you guys in here. I've said it a couple times. Press conferences in 21 minutes. We're going to listen to it live on here. Crystal clear quality. Shout to Ryan. So yeah, get ready for that. You should definitely make sure you're following the speakers up here as well. They won't prove your experience on this app. Let me try and find how the note changed. Here's what changed in the Fed's statement. My engine is a little slow, so I might take a second, but yeah, 12 to zero vote. Raise rates. Economic activity is expanding into solid plate pace while uncertainty remains elevated owing in part to the geopolitical developments. Domestic spending has been resilient. Productivity, growth is strong and capital investment is robust. Job gains have kept with the workforce and the unemployment rate has changed little. Inflation remains elevated. Sorry, inflation remains elevated. Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the committee's 2% goal. The committee will deliver price stability. This is a lot shorter remote of a note. That is what changed. This is what changed from last. I'm surprised at least today. Okay. All right, so market did move actually a little bit higher since our last look. Just maybe trying to reverse back now. Feels like we're in for a chop 30 minutes here next 20 minutes maybe. Five years back up 30 years before, but you're not really getting it consistent. Move in yields, the 10 years rebounding now. This is this is a really muted reaction. I mean, this is really muted reaction here. I mean, I want to hear see how we react to what he says. I think that's going to be more important than this reaction here. I mean, I appreciate there's waiting for him to say good afternoon before the dump. Good day. Good day. Good day. Segities is good day. It's not coming down to red tie. Look, if you look right now, like from the like under the, there are nobody is on the order book anywhere. So the market's having to go to both sides to find the clarity. IE everybody's waiting for the presser in the Q&A.