Transcript
And we had some big, really big storms.
So I hope it's not a repeat.
Oh, I wish people have some rain.
I was like, it was raining for like five seconds,
I think like two weeks ago.
That was it.
And then, oh, I gotta tell you.
So I posted it that the Amazon suicidal embassy
that will kill us.
I mean, literally,
we had a homeless compound here,
was what do you call them, the tent and everything.
And they decided to do the barbecue.
They did the barbecue at 110 degrees
and by the full on dry brush.
The fire was so high, we couldn't go outside,
we couldn't breathe,
and everybody started getting worried
because it was moving so fast.
And I'm thinking, how idiotic are you?
But I guess they don't have any sense of, oh my gosh,
it's gonna catch on fire.
They just started the open fire
and started roasting something.
I don't know what the hell they were roasting.
Imagine that.
Just put it on the ground.
Yeah, they started on the ground.
They didn't do the barbecue or whatever.
It was on the ground, they started the fire.
Like an egg.
Yeah, you know, I mean, come on now, it's okay.
Better feed environment, Rooney.
I'm like, what are they doing, control, Bernie?
I don't understand.
Like, I, it just, you gotta be the stupidest person
in the world to start the fire on the ground
without no control, no water, no nothing.
You gotta be the dumbest person in the world.
Who they vote for.
Okay, well, you know, they vote for somebody
who is trying to open the bungalows for the sex, okay?
That's what they're voting for, okay, Jay?
That's what I'm trying to do.
I mean, how long do you see those bungalows
are gonna last if they're starting the fires
in the middle of the, I mean, I am just, I'm done,
I'm done.
I mean, it's like the dumbest thing that people do.
It's not even, but yes.
You couldn't pay me to go into one of those bungalows.
There's not enough money.
Can you imagine somebody cleaning that crap?
I'd rather clean like the porta-potties.
You know, it's like sometimes I'm reading stuff
and I'm looking at it and I'm thinking,
you have to be the dumbest person on the planet,
not even in the United States, not even in the city,
in the planet to come up with that crap.
I just don't know, I don't know.
Well, would you like to get started, Rhoda?
Yes, please.
All right.
All right, so go ahead, say your thing
and then we will play the song.
All right guys, I'm in the good mood today
because I came home early
and I didn't have to go under the bombing.
So can you guys please repose the space,
what poses space so I can direct the drones somewhere else
instead of on you?
How about that?
There you go.
That's good, but don't mistake your good mood
and your kindness for weakness.
Oh, no, no, no.
As a matter of fact, before you start,
I just wanted to make sure you guys understand.
You live in the best country in the world, in the best.
It doesn't matter what we fight about, what we do,
but at least you have that freedom
to speak.
You have the freedom to express yourself,
which other countries don't.
And most of the countries that you're visiting right now,
you have to submit all the paperwork
that will show your handles and everything else.
Some of them require that, the social media,
some of them just say please do.
But in some of the countries, if you don't provide that information,
you can actually not, the least you can
is not being able to enter the country.
The worse it will be detained.
So just count your blessing people.
Please count your blessing.
We have millions of people coming through the United States
that are not being prosecuted for just speaking the mind.
Even though United States is one of the countries
that do require submit the handles
when they're coming in here.
Did you know that?
Is that from every country?
Yep.
Good.
Yep.
That started not long ago, actually, Jay.
It started not long ago, which is fine.
But I mean, you're not going to get detained
unless you are posting some crazy crap.
What about American citizens?
No, you don't have to do that.
Exactly.
That's fine.
If you're not an American citizen,
you don't get the same privilege of just coming back home
because it isn't your home, right?
Yeah. No, it's only for the tourists.
Fine with me.
And correspondence.
Fine with me.
Fine with me.
But in Ukraine, never.
Well, does that stand for everybody that will run?
Yeah, everybody.
OK.
So when I had to go, then I had to submit.
It was almost six months prior that I had to submit
all my information and then goes through everything
and then right before, I think it was about two weeks
before I left, they were doing the update
to make sure that it's nothing else popped up.
And I got the whole clear.
Otherwise, you wouldn't receive the visa.
So and if you lied, or if you didn't submit everything,
they will go in the airport or in the train,
because you can't go through the airport now.
You have to go on the train from Poland,
but they will actually stop you.
And you will have to unseat the train,
and then they might detain you.
But also, citizens in that country
don't have any freedom on social media.
No.
Everything has to be approved by the government.
And as an effect in Moscow, they
do have internet that is being shut down by the government only.
You cannot just go on the internet.
And so sometimes when I'm trying to go onto the RU.ru,
it's a problem because I don't have clearance to go on it.
Right.
Well, we're only one or so election cycles away.
Bad election cycles away from that happening to this platform.
I keep saying it all the time.
And I'm right.
I know I'm right.
Not only to this platform, Jay, but it's
to all of our lives because I'm telling you,
there is a huge problem right now with people
are trying to push.
And I was, honestly, I'm going to tell you,
I was the one, oh, you're don't supposed to talk like that.
And now I understand the value.
You can talk whatever you want.
But that is your freedom.
And that is the beauty of this country.
The problem is that people are taking you to far, Jay.
And that's where the whole controversy comes in.
What an art country too far.
Yeah.
Well, listen, again, it's always that slippery slope.
If you want to talk like an idiot, and what did I say?
It's better to be thought an idiot than to speak and remove
all doubt.
Well, if you want to remove all doubt, that's up to you.
But yeah, I mean, the first amendment's there
to protect speech that we don't necessarily like.
That doesn't mean it's a free for all at your job,
or you can threaten people and threaten violence, no.
But if you have a common sense, you get it.
You understand what it means.
All right, we can go on about this.
But I know we will talk about it.
Rodan Stockman has got a lot of stuff too.
There's a lot going on with AI.
And this smells bad to me.
And we could talk about that.
All of a sudden, everybody's all in a tizzy.
And wow, midterms are coming right here.
And wow, Congress is back.
Or are they back?
I don't know.
They're back for a few days.
All right, everybody, please repost, quote, post,
the space.
We're back.
It's Monday.
We have a full week.
Monday to Thursday for us.
Let's go.
I have come here to chew bubble gum and kick ass.
At a fall out of bubble.
Forrest, hence the night.
Movement, it moves a certain distance.
Then it stops.
You see, a revolution gets its name by always coming back
around in your face.
You tried to kill me.
You son of a bitch.
So welcome to the revolution.
Hello, right, Stockman.
The AI revolution is on the fire.
Yes, the sky is falling.
The world is coming to an end.
AI is going to take over and kill us all.
Oh, god, it's ridiculous.
And we're slowing down on AI now, because it's
dangerous.
Because we want to lose the China.
The whole thing is just nonsense, guys.
This whole AI scare is just ridiculous.
We're going to talk about it.
I want to talk about something more important.
The tenure, treasury, over 5%.
Yeah, over, briefly, 1 over 5% today.
We have not seen the tenure treasury over 5%
since 2007.
Right before what we know would happen, right?
The great financial crisis.
So the last time the FOMC meeting had a target rate above 5%
was August 7th of 2007.
The target set at 5.25 and the Fed held steady.
They held steady at 5.25 since June of 2006.
They had been holding steady.
The next meeting on September 18th, 2007,
the Fed cut it to 4.75.
And then things just started to hit the fan.
We had bear stirings collapse.
We had Lehman Brothers collapse.
We had the great financial crisis, which was caused
by subprime mortgages.
And they kept cutting as the financial crisis worsened.
But the last time that the Fed was met with rates above 5%
was August 2000, almost two decades ago.
So the Fed is in a pickle here, guys.
And I put something out this morning,
a long commentary to my traders and to my subs.
And I want to share some of it with you
because I really did a lot of really deep thinking about this
and a deep dive into how I see this playing out
with the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.
Most of you know that I have been pounding the table
on why it's a dumb idea for them to hike rates.
All smart economists are coming out and saying
it is not a good idea for them to hike rates.
But the CME Fed-Fed Watch tool and Calche
and Polymarket, they have it all between 85 and 90%
that they're going to hike on Wednesday.
I still believe that Worsh doesn't want to.
He may have so many dissenters that it may happen anyway.
Because Barnau came out and said he had three dissenters
last time, Barnau came out and said
that he isn't opposed to hiking rates.
I think it would be a bad idea.
But a 25-paces point is not going to be a disaster
but it's going to signal some things to the market.
Bar and costs are already up, guys.
The 10-year treasure yield being at 5%.
Mortgage rates are higher.
We know that mortgage rates go higher.
They're tied to the 10-year corporate debt.
Consumer loans are tied to that benchmark too.