September Crypto Reset: What Comes After the August Rally?

Jim, Jim, everyone, welcome to a week of e-bites. X-Base, I'm your host, and thank you all for joining us. Our topic today is September, Crypto Reset, what comes after August's rally. August gave the market a strong rebound, and brought a lot of options back into crypto, right? But as we move into September, the questions are getting more interesting. Is this just a pulse before the next move higher or are macro pressure liquidity and market positioning starting to matter more again? Well, today we'll look at be calling and macroevalent AI-related crypto narratives and the signals investors may be overlooking as we enter a new month, right? This is like the beginning of September. So we're very happy to have our speakers some new friends here with us today. So speaker from Freedom Asset, XOOS, Contoneo AI, and Arcane Ventures. So let's, like, before we actually start our session today, please just introduce yourself a little bit, say hi to our audience and also share with us what your project or what you personally building, okay? So let's start with Freedom Asset. Hey, hello everyone. I'm Haia, CMO of Freedom Asset. Hello, Host, can you hear me? Yeah, perfect. Okay, okay. Freedom Asset is a multi-tree and dex-exploitator folks on tokens, Web, liquidity assets, and access and NFT trading. I'm also spending a lot of time on AI, especially how AI agents may interact with blockchain payment and digital assets. Yes, okay, very happy to hear and we can talk later. Thank you. Great, welcome. And it's great to have you here again, by the way. And also the next is AxialOS. Oh, I think he probably not here. So probably, Cautonia AI. Hello everyone, it's so nice to be here. Can you guys hear me? Yes. Thank you. So I'm Victory Community Manager at Cautonia AI. Cautonia is building an AI need team distributed cloud infrastructure. So completely here that AI agents and applications need to actually run and they need to run verifiably at skill and without depending on any single provider. Three things we find what we viewed, intelligence scheduling, the allocate completely based on workload type and then a distributed network with no single point of failure. And finally, zero knowledge sentiment, where every competition produces cartographic proof that it actually happened correctly. So we're not just dealing with trust that the work happened. We like to do with proof, we like to show that all this actually happened on chain and you can always verify it. And I think that is really relevant to today's topic because Cautonia is exactly at the intersection of AI and the crypto infrastructure. When the conversation turns into AI-cooktool convergence, I'm not really talking about it from a narrative standpoint. I like to think that I'm talking about it from the architecture layer. So that gives me a specific perspective what sharing with you guys. So yeah, I'm pretty excited about today's topic and I can't wait to hear from the rest of the speakers. Thank you so much. Over to you, Holt. Great, great welcome, victory. And okay, so the next is, Axum OS, could you introduce herself a little bit? Okay, hello everyone, can you all hear me? I'm really sorry for the background noise though. Yeah, okay, so hello everyone. I'm a review from Xium. I'm the community manager here and I'm really, really happy to have a conversation with everyone today. So yeah, from our side, Axum OS is actually focused on building programmable digital coordination OS that connects state, execution and value across digital systems. So what we have been building is really about bringing AI agents, applications, data and digital assets into a more connected environment. So orbit is an important part of that because it gives people a place to discover ecosystem projects, connect with communities, complete quest, send tasks and take part in different form of contribution. So from our side, the bigger idea is pretty simple actually. It's like as digital systems become more active and autonomous, coordination becomes increasingly important. So yeah, that is the direction that we are exploring at Xium OS. And I'm actually looking forward to share how we think about some of these bigger market and technology questions today. So yeah, over to you. Welcome, welcome to have you here and okay, the next and the last but not least, Arcane Ventures. Hey guys, GMGM, glad to be here. It's our first time attending. So just a little background who Arcane Ventures is. We are a VC that funds, gain by AI prediction market projects. So yeah, we kind of inject investing into a pre-seed projects with this type of background. So yeah, glad to be here and excited to talk with the speakers, was the host. So yeah. Great, welcome. Thank you all for being here. So I guess let's just get started. Let's begin with the Bitcoin. So the first question is, Bitcoin's August rebond brought BTC back toward the ADK right level, but the breakout has struggled to hold. And so is this simply a healthy cool down after a sharp rally? Or are we seeing early signs of a deeper September corrections? So for this question, free then asset. Would you like to? I'd like to share. Yeah. Sorry, I just am here. Okay. I think that I still see this as a normal cool down after strong August rally. For me, liquidity is the key. I would watch Bitcoin ETF inflow, stable calling the liquidity, the US dollar and the 10 year treasury years. These are the the angles that I will look at where I make judgment. And if Bitcoin ETF inflows, slow down, stable calling, liquidity shrinks and the 10 year treasury years. And the US dollar keep rising. I think the correction could depend. So for now, I remain cautious, but I'm not a structurally bearish. I think it's still a normal cool down. Yes, that's my answer. Thank you. Great. Thanks for sharing that. And also, as you would do think about this. You're great. Okay. I think that's a great question. And honestly, I would be careful about calling it either a simple cool down or the beginning of a major correction just yet because you know, Bitcoin has had a pretty aggressive move. So so simple back after that kind of momentum is not really surprising to me. So the important thing is that what happens after the initial reaction, a market can pull back fine support and continue higher or it can start making lower highs or lower lows and show that that the trend has genuinely changed. So these are the two very different situations. So the bigger thing is I'm watching right now is that the interaction between Bitcoin and the broader macro environment. So the reaction around Kevin watched recent Jackson whole comment is a good example, I think. And after after his move is more a hawkish message, Bitcoin moved below $78,000 during the season before before recovering somewhat and while expectations for a September rate hike increased. So I think to me, this tells us that that Bitcoin is very sensitive to changes in expectation around liquidity and interest rates. So I think it's not trading in isolation. I think if so if you look at September, I would not automatically assume that that a correction means something is broken. Sometimes the market simply needs needs to digest a faster move. So think about some one running up a hill very quickly and they may they may slow down for a moment, but but that does not necessarily mean that that they are turning around. So at the same time, I would not ignore the downside either. So if macro condition started further, it's price, dollar strength and invent investors become more defensive. So the crypto can react pretty quickly. So I would focus less on predicting one exact Bitcoin price and more on how price behaves around important levels and whether the macro pressure keeps increasing. So that's that's how I feel I see the current setup. Great. Thanks for sharing that. And I really liked the way you frame your thoughts. Like we should view like how the same point of view of seeing the price going up and down. I think that's really great. Thanks for sharing that. And can Tonya AI would you love to share? Yeah, sure, definitely. I would love to share. And I do agree a lot with the previous speakers. I think it's too early to call this beginning of the of a dip September's correction, but I also wouldn't dismiss the weakness as simply a normal cooldown because Bitcoin has come into familiar with a very different macro drop down from the one that helps like push it back towards epicking in all of us. So there was a meaningful demand behind the August move. US, I think US sports Bitcoin, it's reportedly recorded around 3.3 billion of net net. I think net full influence during August, which tells us there was genuine institutional demand rather than just purely retail speculations. But now we're seeing some of the variables that Bitcoin is extremely sensitive to moving in like opposite direction. So the US 10 years treasury, you know, it has moved up towards I think 4.8 now. And the dollar has strengthened so much and oil has also risen sharply. I mean, like renewed our geopolitical attention. So markets are also priced in a high probability of a September fed hike flowing, I think, I think was saying Kevin, Kevin washed, I think he made a comment sometime back. So for me, I think the key distinction is price correction. This is like liquidity regimen change. So when the price is moving from like the low 80k to it's like the high 70k is it isn't really alarming. I wouldn't I would call it like alarming because I think Bitcoin was around 77 800 on the first, which is yesterday. So I've fallen to hold 80k, but it's still remain like considerably above earlier levels in August. So that's like telling us something. And what would concern me much is if we see several things happen at the same time and persistent ETF withdrawals, maybe rising real yields or sustained dollar strength or like deteriorating liquidity. And then if I also see Bitcoin is in important back support levels while broader rigs assets are also weakening, that would tell us we no longer when no longer dealing with profit taking and we'll be dealing with like a broader rigs of like a regimen game on stuff like that. So I think this is where people sometimes make a mistake with