Bitcoin short term bullish or bearish? Clarity not !

Gary Cardone 订阅播客 4h 49m 0 次下载 收录于 2026-09-16 #热门

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比特币交易者复盘直播交易,认为扫掉75K流动性后可能先冲高诱空、再回踩65–67K,83.5K是关键突破位。 - 主播当天进行了三小时直播交易,自述清算了大量交易动作,并表示"这是不错的一天"。 - 75K附近流动性已被扫清,过去25天的多空仓位几乎都被清洗,作者认为这可能是冲向83以上所需的"火箭燃料"。 - 当前做多者大多已在70、65附近被爆仓且不会重新入场,下一个被猎杀的目标是做空方(80、81附近多次受阻的空头)。 - 要确认上行,价格必须强势突破83.5,并在81–81.5形成极强买盘,例如冲破85后回踩站稳82.5才有效。 - 作者认为更容易先到65K(约20%回调),而在90K区间建立稳固的支撑位从未出现过,所以不看好直接站稳90上方。 - 历史节奏:2023年2月触及50周线后曾出现约20%回调至65K附近;中期选举前后需留意类似走势。 - 大资金可能等待四年周期确认后在明年Q1才进场,宁愿错过20–30%涨幅也要等"底部已确认"的信号。 - 作者更信任Polymarket等博彩市场而非音频空间的观点,提到CLARITY法案通过概率仅18%、次日加息概率88%,并以2024年大选博彩市场准确预测红潮为例。 结论:关注83.5的有效突破与81–81.5的买盘强度,若无法强势站上则优先防范回落至65–67K的风险。

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and it's literally really, I can't fault 75,000 even. It thought it hard. I mean, for dollars, they were grabbing for everything they could get there. I had a crazy trading to do today. I streamed for three hours live stream just absolutely obliterated this trading action during clarity. It was a good day, man. But yeah, I think just be careful. I think that now that we just swept the 75s, we just swept everybody over the last 25 days, this would be the rocket fuel needed to get up and blast past 83. That's typically how the market works, right? liquidity grabs to the downside. And then everybody thinks that the shorts are protected, right? Everybody thinks that if you're short from that 50 week, multiple touches at 80, 81, this is where that next big, big, big event happens where they just blow those fuckers out of the water and then you end up putting in that low towards that 65, 67, 70 or whatever it's going to end up being. So just keep an eye out for that because we've seen it too many times, these liquidity grabs where we end up just smashing them real quick. And right now, we don't have any of the shorts taken out from the 80 ones, 80 case. You know what I mean? And I don't know if they're going to be rewarded. All of the longs are completely out. They're fucking, everybody at 70, 70, 65, right? That's been holding these trades for the last 25 days since this moves happen. They're fucking blown out, dude. They're not re-entering those. So right now it's just the shorts are on the hunt next. Do you wanna say one thing, though, when we do go into midterms and the last time back in 2023 in February, we touched the 50 week, we did have a 20% pullback, which would put it going right around 65K. Real simple, just every single time. And then once we clear that 50, we can, you know what I mean? And then we're off to the blue market. But 65's looking like it's on the cars. The history has a little riven rhythm. I agree with you, bro. I totally agree. I mean, nobody likes me anymore, but I'm gonna be honest. And this thing's going lower, it just can't, it has so many levels to get through on the upside. God damn, right? Because you and I agree, hey bro, it has to punch through 83.5. I heard the way you said that. It has to punch through like it's got by aggregate, dude. I mean, like it has to go. I mean, it has to be such a firm bid at 81 period or 81.5 that you're like, wow, I punched through 85 and it settled back to 82.5. I totally agree. It has to do that, man. The next 90 days, even if there's a lot of money sitting on the sides, some people are gonna just wait for confirmation because of the four year cycle theory. Whether they miss a 20, 30% move, you know, let's just say the bottom isn't. Let's just say 58K was in. Most people with big money either gonna buy here, you bought it 60 or two, you're just gonna get the confirmation going into Q1 next year, bottom's in, we know it's in. Now it's time to fucking juice. Who cares if I miss 30% if? Yeah. I agree, dude. Like, you know what I'm saying? Yeah. Oh, I totally agree. Like I don't expect, yeah. And that's my point about, hey, it needs to get through a lot of levels. See, to me, I look at this very simplistically. It's easier to get to 65 than it is to establish a firm, firm fucking position in the 90s. Okay, I haven't seen a firm position with Bitcoin in the 90s, dude. Like it doesn't exist. That's why I don't see it. So that's what I've been with, we've got to do. I mean, there it is too clarity and all of these things, man, that people, there's a lot of hype right now. I could tell you what the betting odds, man. The fact that clarity wasn't gonna pass with the betting odds at an 18% chance. There's a 88% chance that they're gonna rate hike tomorrow. I think that the market is definitely quite pricey in these days. And even if it's just a point to buy, it's better. I mean, quite frankly, I've stopped listening to spaces because I just need to go to a polymarket or a fucking betting market. It's more accurate without all the work, and blowviation. 100%. And I told them to, you know, in these last couple of spaces, you pick spaces, you know, I go in with these guys, and I'm like, guys, what do you mean? You think the betting markets, I mean, you guys, the 2024 election set it. They thought that it was a, I mean, the CNN Fox News said that it was a close raise, Kamala Trump. Dude, the fucking betting market had it just a blow by a red wave and look what ended up happening. Well, here we go again. It's just real people, whether it's retail, putting their money together and just, you know, I'd even think that there's some big, big, big money that are setting these things up. And we've been yet to be proven that it's just a hoax, right? Like, let's just say clarity passed today with only an 18%. And I'd be saying, okay, the betting market's a little fucked up. That, you know what I mean? Or if tomorrow, we don't get a rub. Yeah, for sure. Well, the betting market has a reputation and a balance sheet to actually protect. Unlike these fucking winters that are just claiming it's going to $200,000 tomorrow. Man, it's just not, it's so misleading, okay? Like if that's true, you should be buying the hell out of 75. I mean, you should be buying call options. You should be selling your mother's house, right? Like you should be, I mean, these guys been around 13 years. And it's just not fair, the new investor. It's quite irritating, actually. I also do because I'm a foyer cycle theory guy, you know, whether the bottom's in a couple months or the every cycle stands on by itself, I've said this, but I don't think that as we go into the end of the year, that the price of Bitcoin's going to be rich, whether it maintains 75, 65, 55, I don't think that any of that, that 30% down below or 30% higher is going to be rich. Because I agree with that, bro. This is all a pitulation, right? It's here. It's time capitulation, exactly. That is exactly right. Well, I can't get the guys up. It's funny how people, you know, they all pop into your room when they don't owe you any money or they were betting on the other guy. I think there were bets on grant too. I think people were like, okay, we're going to bet on grants, going to win. So they are losses. I mean, we're coming up a couple now. I'm just sucking liquidity crypto out of the whole Bitcoin market. That's what's happening are all these little bets. What was your bet with Fred? So did you guys have a wager on it? So a bit more. Fred doesn't make bets. I've never been able to execute a bet with Fred. You and I could do a trade right now. See, I would buy probably, in fact, I'll throw one at you, man. Let's see, we see 80 before we see 70, 450. I think that you're, I think we're going to see 82. I think all these shorts are just asking for it, man. I mean, we just got this. Well, so you can, you can, you know, if you want to play, we're not so far apart. It's only two bucks. And as we make a counter. You said, hold on. Let me look at this. You said you're going to see 80 before seven. Go go go study your charts. Yeah, 74 50 80 before 74 50. I'm in the wrongs right now. You should take this trade. Like it's cheap if it's, you think it's going to 82 50. It was wild trading today, man. It was almost like a $35,000 day all life streaming, man. Just pounding these fucking trades thick for three hours. And you close that you, you've closed your positions out. Oh, yeah. Yeah, yeah. I close that on my positions, man. And I'm, I'm doing this. See, this guy's clocking the money. Okay. He's not just like doing paper trading. That's why I'm going to collect my 10 grand, right? Because like, hey, I'm 18 grand on a bet dude. I need to get paid now time value of money. But yeah, dude, that's spectacular. Like if you can do that, that's kind of friends. I like it. Yeah, man. Yes, it is like $6,500. But the volatility's been good. But yeah, with me and my trading style, Gary, I don't, I don't fuck around. Do this thing is so volatile and it can go either way. And so for me, the size that I trade with is a couple hundred grand. So if I'm getting, you know, a 10% on these moves with a little bit of leverage with hardly any risk in the right areas. Exactly what you're sitting down here building, building especially in this market. That's what I mean about predictable. I think this is a very safe market trade. It's one of the cleanest markets to trade off respect. So much to every single level. I agree, dude. I'm going to bring up a Zach. Let's see if we can get Zach here. Bring anybody up. J.H. is down there. He likes talking about it at a better point. By the way, this is not agree with Gary and crypto. Okay, this is whatever you fucking believe. Love here in the story. I want to be wrong. I'm going to figure out, but I do want to buy as many big coins for dollar as I can. I think that's the right strategy. It's the right strategy for a new person too, I think. I'm going to just just agree that you should just jump in right now. Like I, you might buy 10% here. I could see that, but I think we're going lower. And even if it goes higher, this is what this was crypto. Crank's point. I don't know that everybody paid between like $15,000 below this and $15,000 above it is really mushy. I mean, we're going to be here until we aren't. I think that's what you're saying, right? We're going to be here until we aren't. And then you're going to be like, okay, time to either test or blow out. I mean, just go. It's the only way that it's going to happen when you go through these accumulation phases like this. It's the next wave of expansion, whether it's to the downside or to the upside. It's just, you saw that whatever we were between 60 and 67 huge, you know what I mean? Just accumulation and then everything just gets exhausted. Everybody gets tired of this shit and then I don't know where. Oh, blows up. You know what I mean? It just, it cooks everybody. Yeah. And this building is structured. Oh, there we go. They're bringing them up. We don't have an issue. We're good. All right. Cool. I'm looking at an issue because this is a very small amount of people. There are a bunch of rooms running right now because I started it initially. I saw the same problem. And that's why I shut that down. It didn't just expire. It was like something's wrong here. I've done this before. Well, you got, oh, that's a, no, that's Buxi. The great reset. 300 people. They're normal. Anyway, can you buy a speaker? Listen or? Yeah, I can hear you. Thanks. What's up, Zach? Dude, you guys have been watching XRP take a huge dump. I was watching the chart right after the Clarity Act. I'm like, I thought of you. Cryptocrates. Oh, my God. Maybe he's maybe short in that one. But yeah. That was one of my biggest traits to do. Dude was just been pounded down on that thing as well as the Bitcoin long. When we, yeah, both of those trades were my, my hitters today, man, was both BTC and XRP. I've been saying that for months and months, it was never going to pass. I really don't think the Clarity Act would benefit Trump. As much as he says it, I don't think he wants regulations on himself until he's out of office being political. That's my personal opinion. It was fun to watch it, but I was like, oh, man, I should've took the word. Hey, man, Zach can't blame the guy. No, I can't. I'm at lunch talking to guys going, hey, if this thing goes really like left two years from now, where should I live? You laughed, dude. I was fucking serious. Yeah. Okay, I mean, dead serious. I mean, it's, you know, they're not going to like people who have created and built things and have not, they're not going to like those people. Yeah. I mean, that was for certain. Definitely. But I'm on to tomorrow tomorrow. Arch launches the layer one from Circle. I was actually had a convention with them in Boston. It was great to hear them speak. I'm great. I will wait for a second. Sorry. Get in the phone call. Frank, where are we going from here, man? What do you think happens over the next day? Short periods, say two weeks or levels. Let's do levels. All right. So let's do this. Just simply looking at the chart with Bitcoin. We finally, finally, over the last 24 days, we were finally able to sweep the 755 area, right? Which was our initial support from the initial move. We closed out every single freaking long, right? Everybody had 76, eight. The next week's down at 76, two. The CPI data, the crazy little price action at 759. This little whip down just scooped everybody. And it's got everybody on toes to start shortening this thing, thinking that it's over. So what I would expect right now, because you have every, all the shorts right now are currently winning between 80,500 just draw a simple trend line, 80,500. Next is going to be 79, 850. And then today's wick that we, or this was on September 14th yesterday at 79, 5. I would expect now, after just sweeping this liquidity in the next two weeks, I would expect Bitcoin to sweep those guys late longs. This is where late long start coming in like big time. And then they get fucking crushed. Maybe that's going to try to long this move. That's what I would be expecting. Now, if that does not happen, there's two scenarios right now within the next two weeks. And the move is clearly over and we truly get a rate hike. I'd expect a bark, fucking Simpson, dude, coming down to our 200 day, which is going to be we have a 250 right below us, which is sitting right around 70,000, 50. And the next one is sitting at 7,500. That's what I'm expecting Bitcoin to come down to on its next leg down. So either you're going to crush all of these late shorts, late longs, right? Everybody trying to catch this price action, thinking they know what the hell is going on. Again, February of 2023, Bitcoin did pull back the first time it touched the 50 week. If you look and you were to do a 50 week, almost every single one of these wicks are on top of the 50 week, whether it was at 81, 3. The next time again, because a little bit more time happened, 82, 1, the last two were at the 70, 79, 7. So all of those are still sitting at the 50 week. If Bitcoin pulls back, that's 65 K, but we've got to just take it level by level. So either you're going to see a short squeeze and these fuckers are aren't going to get rewarded. They're getting rewarded now, right? All of the shorts, man, from the very tippy top. Mashed in it, baby. There's matching it. These fuckers are winning. I just, let's talk about non-crypto. What about the broader market that no one wants to talk about?

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