BTC Breaks $75K—Real Breakout or Overreaction?

Okay, perfect. All right. Hi everyone. Welcome in. Thanks so much for joining us live today. I am Beth from coin eggs. I'll be moderating today's conversation. So, you know, a couple days ago, Bitcoin passed, but, but, but 75k and a short move. Right now, I think it's about 77. There's a lot of like, there's a lot going on behind that move and honestly, like there's so many different opinion out there, whether this is genuine breakout or like, you know, reaction to some sort of short term, catalyst like FOMO or any of that. So that's what we are digging into today. And I got free special guest today with me to British down. So I will very briefly introduce you guys. First up, we got Jeff, the chief analyst at coin eggs. Jeff, do you want to quickly introduce yourself to everyone? Yeah, sure. GMGN everyone. This is Jeff. I'm just show guy doing research and investment at comics. So we're happy that we could put this space together, especially with the timing of this BDC with bond. And that's already quite a lot happening in market right now. So I think it might be a good time to get together, string some views. And by the way, hey, Cookie has been a while. So we're happy to have you here and great to finally catch up again. Thank you. Happy to be here. Alrighty. Thank you, Jeff. And next we got Cookie, researcher at Blockbeat Cookie over to you now. Oh yeah. You have to know guys. I have been here like, being invited by coin eggs for several times and every time it's a good time for me. So I have to be here and share some of my views today with you guys. Thank you. Amazing. And last but not least, self growth lead at Bitcoin.com. So do you want to say a quick hello? Hey, everyone. So Bitcoin.com. We're very familiar with what coin X does. Happy to always partner with you guys on different initiatives in Asia and outside of Asia. Yeah, interesting times with the recent spike this week. And I'm pretty sure we have a lot to discuss. Okay, awesome. Thank you. Out of you. It's great to have this lineup with us today. And let's jump straight into it. Right. Let's start with the first move. The move itself. So you know, it like I said, broke past 75 K a couple days ago. And there are three things that lend that's been like it's lending around the same time. The treasury by backing freeze the SEC's crypto proposal and the White House meeting with the crypto executive. So Jeff, I want to from your view. What was the actual spot here and how do these three stack up against each other? Yeah, absolutely. Arm. So I think arm. They asked these people, please actually arm came first on on or does 18 arm. And then I would call this like a the store is moving of the free arm. It's just a proposal. And then it got a like a two month or a comment period as well. And then it didn't really move the price. I think it's more like underwriting the narrative instead of driving the winter stays kindle. And then on all 19 are the treasury announced that it would at least double the size of his long end buyback operation. And in my view, I think that's the real triggering point on the prince of 30 year treasury you fell from 5.34% which is like a 19 year high and into something below 5.2. Our mechanical speaking is definitely a lot of QE but just like a two to manage our liquidity and the composition of treasury liabilities. So I think that's more like a signal or like a thought policy put on the long end. And then later that they we have the third layer on the White House meeting of Trump and then a pretty. The significant group of crypto and guys and then a Trump once again like pushing the Congress for like so core failure version of the clarity at. So I think that that's encouraging for sure. But we're still waiting for that to pass. But in my view, I think the treasury buyback is really the figure on the use drop and the dollar we can and a BTC just search. We've been hours but I think the underlying is really the positioning. We actually have been dropping in the like a 60 K to 66 K range for around two months. And I think that builds up a really healthy short book. So when when a trick of land you got tons of short liquidations stacking on top of that. So the catalyst came but a few actually was was actually already sitting there for like two months of bearish positioning. So in a price action across the market are and trigger and apparently we have the largest wave of short liquidations in crypto history. That's roughly 2.7 billion or close to free billion wipe out on that day. And that actually surpass the 4 2.4 billion short liquidations that we have are in the last time of October event. So I think we're spouting force that buying on willy added a refractive layer to the valley. Having that's the real story is not really on the free good pieces of news items. But actually just one macro trigger and then one over crowded tray. So that's my take. I see I see thanks Jeff. That's really useful breakdown and cookie. I'm curious how this look from your side. Do you have anything you want to add on push back on? Yeah, last night look at the Bitcoin idea flow data. Overall for trading days we saw close to 1.6 billion in flows. But during the first two weeks of this month we had about a 50 million of net inflows in one week and rapidly. So 390 million of net outflows in another well the price barely moved so my read is that investors themselves will. They were surprised by how one really really was like today we just saw a rapid dump from 78 K to 77. They just very feel that the book is over. So I see the biggest I see the bigger story is similarly that Bitcoin had complete had had complete its correction and was ready to move higher. So if I had to pick one at your spark. I'd go with the White House meeting. It's the catalyst most likely to energize retail sentiment. And he also has this junk is narrative and viral reach. So that's my point. Great appreciate that cookie. This is a really good point. And so I want to know what's your read from you know from your end. Do you agree with what Jeff and cokey laid out or do you see it differently? Yeah, by in large part agree and I think a TLDR of a lot of what Jeff had to offer I definitely agree with in summary. I think too many people were short at the same time. And when you look at the major exchanges like by the end of KX and by bit on 15 August, I think up to 52% of all traders went short at that time. So that's enough to trigger a macro event like a leverage point move. So yeah. Okay, great. Thank you for sharing. So we've heard different, you know, different takes on what triggered this move. And now let's talk about whether it's going to build to last like, you know, like next question. What would actually confirm this is a durable breakout rather than just the liquidity driven by that state cookie I want to start with you first since your other clothes are on a data side. Good, good. I think it really depends on the the tie horizon you're looking at. I mean, from a longer term perspective, we may look bad and say this was the beginning of a transition from a beer to a boo. But in a short term, it may be difficult to find another major positive catalyst to immediately follow through. So overall, I think we can start saying goodbye to the beer, bye bye beer. The more sensible approach is to to gradually stake more be calling a price you consider attractive for you. It's better than going all in based on a single call about the next moon. Yeah, that's fine. Great, I see. So think about it a bear. That's an interesting thing for work and thank you, Boogie. So like, South from a growth or market perspective, what would your personal be watching for to confirm this whole like, what do you confirm this whole? Yeah. Sorry, was that a question for me? Yeah, it is the question for you. So from a growth or a market perspective, what would you personally be watching to for this like to confirm this whole? Yeah, I didn't, yeah, I'm sorry, I didn't hear you call me. I thought it was for cookie. I think one important thing that cookie said was time frame. You know, if you ask someone, hey, is Bitcoin going to go up like generally the answer is yes. But you know, like at what point does it launch upwards? Is this, I think on the timeline today, a lot of people are asking, is this the point of reversal? Does Bitcoin drop lower? And I'm seeing some really wild things. I don't know if you guys have seen someone spreading this meme of CZ of course, there's going to be a meme of CZ. And people are saying like, hey, look, you know, just when you least expected, you know, the worst liquidation event in crypto history is just being planned. So one interesting chart that I've seen this morning is, you know, like liquidations past a point of 70. If let's say Bitcoin doesn't hold 69 and we drop lower to as low as I don't know, 40s. This is not my TA. I'm just narrating what I saw this morning on my timeline. And there's plenty of people doing TA up there. But you know, I just want to kind of latch on to what cookie set when he is referring to time frame. It's really important to see like, you know, are your expectations realistic at this point. If you are hoping to write the longer timeline and you're hoping that, you know, the Trump administration approaching its midterms in November is somehow going to influence bullishness for crypto in general, including Bitcoin. Then yeah, keep that in mind for a longer time frame. But in the meantime, you know, be careful. Some people might advise buying in in parts and not fool putting. Well, I kind of care your bills. Well, actually cookie, I am surprised you're you are that kind of a positive. But for me, I think they're the best confirmation to me is might might be like for for Bitcoin to become boring again. So that's why I said I kind of share sales will. Because I guess after such a so core file and smooth like that, I don't really I don't really want to see like another 10% candle tomorrow immediately. Having it be conscious trace by ways around like 75 K to 80 K. And then if we see leverage coup d'un and then every dip gets absorbed. Then I think that's much healthier and and to me there are a few things that I'm watching. The first one is like are simply price up softens. Obviously a break out has been really confirmed. And then when you when you touch like 75 was 79 K. But it's confirmed when the market starts treating the old resistance as the new support. So when when we come to back to like 72 K or 75 K. And but then if we see buys consistently appeared there, then I think that's more meaningful. And secondly and and more importantly, I think is where does transitions from a so core derivative driven valley into a spot, driven valley. Because we saw the liquidation event already and eventually distraughts available to squeeze would run out. So I think the next question would be like who is buying the next big con and and sell mentioned like we sort of eat you up doing a great job. It's like a one for nine billion this week. Probably there the strongest in for a week of this year, if I'm not mistaken. And at the same time, I would definitely watch the lack of quite carefully.