Tuesday Ticket! Home Run best bets 8/18 🔥🤑

And, and fairly across the board, I don't think I have, I have three bets in one game. But it's, it's not so much my favorite matchup. It's just the, the odds are like so incredibly mismatched for the matchup. And so many different spots. I mean, I'll just start off with the main game I'm looking at, which yeah, there's some weather concerns it could delay could postpone who who knows. I think it should be all right. But white socks versus the cubs. The pricing on is just absolutely ridiculous. The wind blowing out at nine miles an hour. Heavy humidity mid 70s grids the temperature is not great, but the humidity more than makes up for it. And the wind is obviously the biggest factor out of any stadium in the league when it's in the league by a decent margin. And so wind blowing out should be like in the these conditions should be a 35 45% increased to home runs. The crow arm strong who is one of the hottest players in the league right now is priced. I got him over plus 400, which is ridiculous. Like dad in the fact that I think Fettie's going to be on the mound. I haven't looked here. Oh no, yeah, that he's going in long relief. So it's Hudson opening now and Fettie in long relief. He's been a complete nutter gas can this season granted it's been worse to write east and lefties, but he's due for a lot of negative regression versus lefties grades out as a great match for lefty power. So great ball cup part conditions great match up. And Pee Crowe I'm strong as priced like he's a 25 home run hitter for the spot. And he's definitely not so I absolutely love him and then Bush two spots layer. Obviously he's been having an off year, but I got my I think plus four or five 25. He's still a solid home run here. It's still solid match up and like the wind's blowing out. So and then on the other side of Miracami granted I got him a 303 that's a little bit more fair versus gaspin who's is due for some native rush versus lefties, but Miracami's so good that in a win game. I'm not I'm not passing him up at over plus 300 jobs, but about the birthday boy says he can I thought about it. I'm not against it if I didn't have so many other bets that I like today. I would be on him. I can get him as high as plus 3.77. I'm seeing right now. I have his true odds at around plus 3.20 plus 3.10. So there's definitely value. I have no problem with if anyone wants to bet him. It's just like I said, I have more bets today than I've had in a long time. And I have him at like 10, 15% whatever it is ROI. I have other guys significantly higher. What's your favorite that you've gone on your slate today? It's I mean, this should be a surprise to no one. It's big knee peat. Looks like Rodon's now opening, which is a little bit of a downgrade. I thought he was going to be starting the whole game, but I still don't care. It's not like Warren's a bad match up for power. He's giving up above average home runs this year. He is better versus Rides and lefties, but given up as 1.24 home runs for nine to Rides this season. And his career, it's 1.28. So pretty consistent. The above average matchup Alonso has been incredible recently. Like he's been unreal over the last seven, eight days. So since the ninth had two home runs and then nothing one home run two days with no home run home run, no home run home run. So that's five bombs in the last seven, eight days, which is fantastic. He's also gotten close a few times, not striking out. He's hitting like I want to say like 400 during that time frame. So he's laying out of his mind right now. His odds like in this spot, I would assume should be like 330, not even given his recent play. I got him a plus 440. Just the mist pricing today is wild. Yeah. It's interesting. They have like Mayo is plus 390 right now on Fandall and Alonzo's at plus 410. Yeah. And it's the same like I saw that earlier too. And I just austro because it's the same thing over at DK. Alonzo's at I think plus 400. Mayo's at plus 394. There is no world that tonight. Mayo should be priced lower than Alonso. Not just entirely for getting his recent form. Like in this matchup, even if Alonzo was not playing well and Mayo was playing great. Mayo should not be priced lower than him. Yeah. What else we got on the docket. Trying to find another good spot. I like a little bit of an interesting spot. So Kyle Harrison is on the mound versus Seattle and Kyle Harrison has been great this season. Like he's he's been a fantastic pitcher. I was not if I remember correctly, it wasn't great last time out. But overall on the season, he's been one of the better pitchers in the league. His underlying numbers have been great 3.1 X-FIP 3.470 R.A. So he's actually been better than his actual results. So the only thing is that he struggles with righty power and it's something you don't think of when he's as good of a pitcher as he is. And as high of a K-Rate pitcher as he is sitting over 30% versus righties. But he's still giving up a 1.61 home run for nine, which dear to year average is like 1.1 to 1.2 home runs for nine. So he's got 33% to 40% over the over average for the matchup. And it's just because he's an extreme fly ball pitcher to righties. And he gives up a lot of hard contact close to 40%. So we've seen this before with guys like Verland or Garrett Cole, and they're not just a good pitcher or even in their primes. Different years that were giving up drastically more than average home runs or at least more than average home runs. And that's not something you expect of a guy who's going to win the Saiyang or top three in Saiyang voting. Like you don't expect them to be a good matchup for home runs, but that's exactly what they are is a good matchup for home runs. And Cal Raleigh that both of them, Jay Radeg got over plus 500, which was made in peel and Raleigh plus 425. And I know that Cal Raleigh has had a rough year like it's been. Yeah, your man is fan two. I think it's it's just so disheartening to watch after my favorite. My favorite season out of any player since I started watching baseball was Cal Raleigh last year in granted I didn't start watching till after. Riffy left the Mariners, that was slightly before my time just very slightly. But Cal Raleigh last year was so much funny. He's been so bad, but the power numbers, the poll numbers, the barrel numbers, the fly ball numbers aren't as good as last year, but they're. Outside of the strike outrate, they're pretty consistent with years past where he was hitting 30, 30 to 40 home runs, depending like per 162 game pace like the strike outrate is higher, but it's only like 4% higher. Yeah, the barrel rate barrel rates pretty consistent with those years outside of last year just being the outlier the fly ball rate actually higher the hard contact rate is a little bit lower, but the poll rate is even higher, which is a big thing. The ball parks and upgrades, so I know he's been just abysmal this year. He's due for some positive regression like he has a 198. Which is batting average bad balls in play, which is like 50 points lower than his career average and the barrel rate being a size it is he should have drastically more than 13 home runs. So he's due for a lot of positive regression in last season, I know this kind of just looking at last season for the bad ball day, versus lefties just ungodly numbers. He had 22 home runs in 185 at bats last season versus lefties, which is incredible. Like unreal numbers like Barry bonds and his prime versus righties numbers. So the spot is just really good in the odds are far too high. So I rolled with both those guys today and I'm not unhappy with my decision at all the more I look at it. Yeah, we can only hope. Yeah, like I like to sneak into the wild card. I know. And Dan Wilson's jobs are lying on it. So yeah, yeah. Let's see what other I'll give out two more and then you know, all fun and give out a parlay for the day after that. And then we can get some questions. Our first grant parlay on spaces. Yeah, no, I mean, it's been I've hit four of them the last week. So I'm I'm feeling pretty good. Next guy is going to be Ronald Acunia going up a gr. Against Zedby Matthews, who was guy with some potential, but he's he's been hot garbage this year. He's he's been so bad. And he's probably due for a little bit of positive regression. But power numbers versus varieties. He's given up a 1.85 home run for nine this season, which is drastically higher than average. And weather is not great, but not actually terrible. It is an upgrade. I know it's only 76 degrees, but when blowing out to right. 76 miles or 76 miles an hour, 60% humidity, which will help the ball fly. So it's a very positive matchup and weather is also a plus. And Acunia, he hasn't done well this season, but we look at the underlying numbers and he's due for some pretty heavy positive regression. And Acunia has 13 home runs and 73 games, which most major leaders would be happy with like that's right on pace for close to 30 home runs over 162 game sample size, but drastically worse than we've seen with Acunia in the past, who's generally going to hit 40 home runs or right around it. And he looked at the underlying numbers, like the barrel rate is still kind of on pace for his like not too far off of his 40 home run seasons. You look at the fly ball numbers better than a lot of his 40 home run seasons, hard contact right on par with some of his 40 home run seasons. I think just like adjusting for how unlucky he's been he's kind of on I haven't kind of as with the underlying numbers of 35 home run guy for this year, just how he's played and granted he was slow coming back from injury once or twice. So he's still one of the best hitters in the league from the underlying numbers gets a plus matchup and I got him at plus 454 again just an incredible miss pricing. He's so much better than these numbers, this is what I would expect him to be priced at in an average to below average spot with below average weather, but again, everything's a positive in the spot so getting that this number is just absolutely silly to me. Yeah, what do you have his true odds around. What did I have it that's all right, just have to go check here really quick. Looking at the spot. I had it I was being conservative with it. I put it 350. That was being far too conservative more regressing towards what's actual numbers are like if I'm going off of just as underlying numbers, matchup, all that stuff. I probably have it closer to plus 320, but I don't I don't often feel that great about putting out there that oh yeah, I have like a 25% at or something like that. Yeah, so like being as conservative as possible, I'm at plus 350, but yeah, realistically, I even if he was sitting at plus 350, I'd absolutely hit that and then last guy, which is another just God awful miss pricing when you consider everything is will you're a brave you. It's he's plus 475 makes absolutely no sense to me. Miral Kelly is God off lot this point is crazy 37 years old he doesn't have it anymore. He never really fully had it, but he really doesn't have it and he really doesn't have it versus lefties 2.09 almost double the average home runs per nine to lefties so far this season, which just absurdly bad. Doesn't strike guys out all being put a play a ton lots of hard contact good fly ball numbers the weather is below average over in Fenway. I think it was like a 5% decreased to home runs just double check near 10% decreased to home runs, which not great, but a brand you has also been ungodly good since the all star break 11 home runs, I think it was 94 games. Pre all star break 11 home runs and 30 games after the all star break he does the ISOPS I believe in the league first or second in the league this month. He is hitting the ball so well just like.