5 percent is dead and gone

And amazingly, amazingly, our chief idiot in charge, Donald J. Trump, we were at 4% on the 10 year in February, right? Before this idiotic work broke out, so we've gone up 125 basis points in six months. It's an amazing, amazing number, off of a forehandle. So I posted today, I posted today, I said today's number is 526. Somebody immediately said no, it's 527. And then Luke Roman commented, he said if it's going much, much higher, if you don't like 526, the new number is going to be a lot higher. And I got to tell you, this is a serious problem. So I've got my panelists, asteroid radio, official white house correspondent, asteroid. What are you feeling on the bottom market here? I don't know, I don't know, I mean, where do we top out? I mean, six, seven? Does anything happen? Six percent is a huge number. Remember when the entire system broke because we were almost at 5%, that was the breaking of the system under Powell, right? And six would be insane. And I feel like we're getting into this doom look now. I hate to be a doomer, but as they raise rates, the problem gets worse. Have you noticed? It's getting worse. Well, it's weird. If you think about it, the raise rates, and I just got my money market just went up, but I'm like, then I get more interest. I'm getting more income. And then I'm like spending that. They don't mean it's like a weird, imagine you know, there's a lot of guys like you because I don't have a tiny bit. I don't even have much, but there's a lot of people who have a lot. They have their money in like money market, treasuries, escorts, shit to you. So they're making more money. Well, there is, if it goes to 10, I mean, they're going to make shit loads, they're going to go spend that money. So it's a weird, it's a weird thing to think about, but I mean, what, what, what eventually happens? I mean, the federal reserve comes in and for some fresh dollars and buys it and pegs it to like, potentially buy the long, I mean, they're, they're talking about fully and England already. You know, I really did it in the 40s to finance the war. They just pegged it like two or whatever. What do you mean in the 40s? How about in 2008, 2009? We had, that's when the term was invented, right? Twist. Well, twist is, I mean, the term QE was invented actually was, but they didn't peg rates, right? They just bought it. But like, didn't they actually, in the 40s, they like pegged it at two or something, right? So they can't inflate the the word that away. Well, they said, you know, buy saving bonds is patriotic. You know, like if you don't buy them, you're, you might be a commie asteroid. What's wrong with you? And that's a report you to the Chicago authority. Yeah. You got to have to sign outside your door saying, I buy liberty bonds. I support the war. I mean, people were more patriotic back then. They were, it's not clear to me what is driving it. I mean, the war thing is fine, but the war thing's been going on for a while. I mean, why suddenly are, okay, so, Nash, here's the whole globe. The whole globe is, probably we got a new, we got a new glutton at the table. It's AI. That's what I was going to say. It's AI. There's an AI doesn't care what the interest rates are. They just want more capital, right? They just want more capital. They want to build more data centers. They want to invest more money in training models. They've, it's unlimited. They just want to buy unlimited number of, unlimited capital, right? Personally, I think in 10 years, I don't know. I just feel like a lot of these data centers are just going to be like those Chinese towns, whether you were I directed those just like piles the skyscrapers that nobody lives in. That's my opinion. I know a lot of people disagree, but I don't know. I think there should be empty data centers everywhere, like 10 years. Dark. Help me lighten up this, uh, Duma. Oh no, this will be a pursuit of the opposite. Duma, uh, what do you think about that, though? Like dark might agree. Do you feel like a lot of these things are just going to be just abandoned, just sitting there? I mean, I don't know. That's my fear. You're going to be like Detroit. You're going to go, you know, you're going to see shelled out versions of data centers. They're going to be empty racks. People are just going to come scrounge them for like arts for the middle of it. Scrooving. There's going to be rats living there, you know, they're going to be overgrown with like English ivy. Yeah. I know. I know. There's going to be people kids playing paintball in them, you know, that's what it's going to be. That's not looking good in my, my friends. Well, this is AI. You mean, we're, we're probably I guess, right? A kind of yeah, but uh, I don't know like we're betting, we're betting, we're betting the ranch on AI basically as a, as a civilization, we just went completely. We just bet the ranch. Well, I'm surprised to hear you say that because we, we're both like probably super users. You're even more super users than me, but at the same time, we're both like, man, man, I don't know if we need all these fucking things, dude. It's a little crazy, you know? So. But the, the, the, the, the Oracle thing, I mean, I don't know what you guys just take like that's, that is some weird shit. Like I've, I don't know, it's very sad. I heard a friend who predicted three months ago, three months ago, he was like Oracle's going box. And I'm like, he mean, like, how can you say that? I think I was like, I'm told you just watch it Fred. They're going to go bust. And uh, his thing is, look, they have a shitty product. Nobody, nobody actually cares about their data product anymore. And uh, it's dog shit. It's dog shit. I mean, you know, when's the last time you used an Oracle database? I mean, honestly, maybe 2014. Yeah. You know, it's like, you know, nowadays it's Mongo or Postgres. That's it, you know. And by the way, the head of the CEO of Mongo just went to join Meta. I don't know if you saw. Yeah, the stock sold off. Oh, yeah. But Oracle, Oracle kind of needs to reinvent themselves. And they just decided they'd reinvent themselves as the data center king. Do you think they can go bankrupt? Big to go bankrupt. You think so? We're going to have to bail them out. What's funny, the funny part is that you actually have a really good balance sheet and a really good income statement. Like their growth year over year on free cash flow is, it's not like 20, 30% year over year growth. It's just that their capital expenses nearly double. They're free cash flow. Yeah, well, you know, there's a lot to do. But it's just that. That's enough to make it go bankrupt. You don't have a good balance sheet. You can't have it both ways. No, I mean, the underlying business is like the new thing is this capital growth, but their underlying business is actually the only thing that matters. They have a great product. The only thing that matters is free cash flow. Everything else is, you know, no, I'm paying their capital. You just say great product. Come on. No, I mean, I think I think Oracle is great. What? What's going on here? We in Twilight Zone. We used it back in the twilight zone. 2009, we were excited to be at a Oracle database at Dash. That was the thing, right? Now no one uses it. No, people's a lot of companies who use Oracle. They go look at their revenue and they're free cash. They're growth year over year is pretty good. I mean, have you looked at the balance sheet? I think it's because of Oracle Cloud. Like they finally started it with sales. I think like speaking on headlines and like, oh, you know, this is what I'm hearing and looking out the numbers are two different things. Like, we can have a logical discussion on the company and it's a balance sheet where we can just talk on headlines. Wait, haven't they just taken on like $500 billion in debt? Yeah, they that I'm saying their capex obligations are oddly high for how the company is doing. But you just think that's a concern. I think that's a good shape. How I said beside their capex, they're balanced. That's their balance sheet. That's like saying that's like the joke where it's like, aside from the death of your husband, how was the play? I'm a slightly more like a mom. You can always cut back on your capex expense versus it's harder to grow. You can't stop back. These guys are more committed. Yes, you can. You can, Fred, you can cut back. It's harder to retain and grow revenue than it is to cut back on your expenses. Especially when they're not turning you any revenue yet. These expenses haven't turned and created any revenue yet. They could still cut back. I mean, like you're seeing the notice to stop one of the projects and stuff. There's levers they could pull here without it going totally to zero. Pulling back on capex is actually fairly easy. Why are the price of the boss? Well, skywarding. Well, that's why they haven't fully committed themselves to pulling back. But the lever is there. Companies, Fred, you've owned companies. You can pull back on capex pretty easily. You have commitments. You have contracts. You can terminate those. You can take a few hits. But you can pull back. They have these data sets. They've got to keep pumping money and they need the fresh to be used. Well, that's the thing they don't have to. They can pull back. Yeah, but if they do, that acknowledges that they made a mistake. Starks going 50%. And 50%. Yes. And acknowledging that you made a mistake, as we have seen with the war on Iran, it's kind of a kind of a hard thing to do. Yes, they would have to do that. But is it the end all be all? I don't know. I guess I think they could always pull back. The capex is... You know, we haven't heard a word out of Kevin Worsh. That guy just... His communication strategy is no communication. That's his communication strategy, right? He's the house, Fred. You don't get one more. Scott Besson is the house. And ask the current. He's the house. Oh, you got Besson. We have to say Jack, recently, have you noticed? He's busy being the house, man. How in the world can Oracle pull back when they've got $500 billion in debt? Like, aren't they all in at this point? And either works or it doesn't work? They don't have the free cash flow to pay the debt. Yeah, listen, you can commit to a certain amount of debt and obligation without it being... You get exists. Yes, the debt is... There's no turning back. There's no turning back. Like, you made a bet. To our side, the debt can exist. Like, we can sign a contract for a billion dollars over 10 years. That debt, I can terminate it. And on my book... Wow. What do you mean, how? I'm not... What do you have to get about? The debt, they've issued the debt. They have to pay it back. They don't have the money to pay it back. So, either it works or it doesn't work. Like, once you take out, once you issue the bonds, you either go back up through, you pay the bonds back. You just don't understand what I'm saying, but it's okay. I get that your point is they could stop issuing more bonds. The point is they've issued so many to this point, they're all in. Right? Like, there's no... You can't go backwards from the debt you've issued. That debt... That bet is such a big bet, half a trillion dollars, that either it's going to work, and they'll be able to pay off the debt with cash flow, or they're going to fail. One of those two things is going to happen. They could stop all capats from here on out. They still have this problem. Yeah, and I'm saying that at the rate of which the business is growing, if they were to stop, it's really not that bad of a situation. But in this all... I think that to me, stopping and pulling back, I'm not saying they will or not. I think the business growth... I would be, look deeper to that, because I just have a feeling that's something we're going on. I don't think it's real organic growth. The products just... Nobody wants that shit. I don't know what is going on, but... I would look into it deeper. Nobody's adding Oracle database today. It's just not happening. It's just no reason why. Why would you... Here's the problem. You have somebody who reads financial statements and believes them. And then you have people that actually understand the technology, and are like looking at you and saying, what the hell are you talking about? People aren't even using relational databases anymore. Tarket. Yeah, you're saying they're making financial statements. What are you talking about? They're full of shit. Yeah, most financial statements are completely full of shit. You do realize that. Like they're just full of shit. If you want to argue that they're committing fraud and conspiracy and... There's a big issue. You have a fraud theory. That's okay. You're making the leap between creative accounting and fraud. There's a huge difference. One is legal and one's illegal. Are they taking liberties with their accounting? Yeah, of course they are. Every fucking corporation doesn't. But like when you speak to people that work in tech and they're telling you, blah, like they data doesn't use relational databases. They just don't anymore. You just don't... Yeah, but also in finance and accounting, they have the best ERP system. Bar none. They have the best. Okay.