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Kook’s Weekly (from a closet)

Investor shares bullish analysis of AST SpaceMobile: J.Leo Japanese subsidy, new government contracts, and Deutsche Telekom signals point to a cheaper constellation and rising revenue, prompting him to own a large position. - Stock corrected down to $37 before a convertible bond, now back at $70; he regrets missing earlier entry but sees a rebound. - Wall Street Journal coverage used a Blue Origin/New Glenn photo, which he finds ironic but expects AST to rise "from the ashes." - J.Leo is confirmed: a ~$1 billion subsidy for Japanese flag satellites, likely reducing net cost per satellite for the whole constellation. - He compares this to Tesla's early government grants enabling nondilutive financing and creating massive shareholder value. - Three new government contract awards ($100M+ funded near-term value) show satellites are delivering; contracts could scale to ~$500M next year. - Deutsche Telekom has all but signaled a T-Mobile contract, giving a clear read on future demand. - He follows AST at a level of detail he applies to zero other companies where he doesn't own a large position; being a sell-side analyst with 40 names would likely miss this opportunity. Conclusion: Treat the J.Leo deal as essentially done and use any market skepticism as a chance to build or hold a core position, since government subsidies and early contracts validate the constellation's value before broader revenue scales.

Kook's Weekly